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2003: Year of Linux in Asia? 320

Anonymous Coward writes "The Register has a story about traveling to a magical country where seeing Linux laptops displayed in stores is perfectly normal. The author then goes on to predict that this year will see much more desktop action coming not from Red Hat or Euro-Distros, but from China and India. Makes sense to me."
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2003: Year of Linux in Asia?

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  • by Exiler ( 589908 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @08:36PM (#4970213)
    I feel so sorry for the newborns this year...
    "I'm was born in the year of the dragon!"
    "I was born in the year of the bull!"
    "... Iwas born during the year of the geeks..."
    • Penguin (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Catskul ( 323619 )
      Since years are normally named after a species of animal (normaly excluding humans) perhaps it would be more appropriatly named:
      "The Year of the Penguin"
  • by Rat Tank ( 612088 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @08:37PM (#4970223)
    2003: the year of Asian Linux
    By Robin Miller, NewsForge.com
    Posted: 27/12/2002 at 10:56 GMT

    As most regular NewsForge readers know, I recently traveled to Arabeyes Project, was a small, independent computer store located in a back alley in one of Amman's many modest commercial districts.

    There is a sameness to this kind of store the world over. I shop at one much like it in Sarasota, Florida, and another similar one in Greenbelt, Maryland.

    The reason we were in this store was to find and buy a Linux-compatible PCMCIA modem. The salespeople in this store were just as clueless as the salespeople in equivalent U.S. stores, and there were the same know-it-all geek customers hanging around who offered us advice ranging from smart to useless. But there was one difference. When we wanted to test a modem for Linux compatibility, we found -- courtesy of one of the geek hangers-on -- a laptop running Linux on display, right up front.

    As it turned out, we didn't need the physical test, and the modem ran just fine in the Red Hat-loaded laptop where it was destined to live, but the note that stuck with me was the fact that there was a laptop on display in a computer store, right up front, proudly running Linux, and people treated it as something normal, not as an oddity.

    It wasn't Red Hat, either, but ThizLinux, a distribution from Hong Kong, which is appropriate since the laptop was a Hong Kong brand I've never seen in the U.S. before.

    To top it off, the office suite CDs on display next to the laptop weren't from Microsoft or StarOffice or WordPerfect, but Hancom Office, out of South Korea. And it was an Arabic version, too, something neither StarOffice nor OpenOffice quite have ready.

    Hancom makes major promo hay out of their support for many languages in their $59.95 (boxed edition) office suite. Their Web page says, "Chinese (simplified and traditional), Japanese, Arabic, Korean editions and Unicode support mean that Hancom Office is the best solution for companies with offices on multiple continents."

    Asia is the next Linux hotbed

    Linux, as we know it today, is an essentially European phenomenon. It started in Finland. KDE is centered in Germany and has close ties to Norwegian TrollTech. Mandrake is French, SuSE is German, and European governments have moved toward and supported Linux -- and Open Source in general -- faster than most governments elsewhere. The U.S. is the center of commercial Linux activity primarily because Red Hat and several other major distributions are based here, but most surveys show a higher percentage of European than U.S. developers writing Open Source software.

    But a growing number of "next generation" Linux development is taking place in Asian countries, ranging from South Korea at one end of the continent to India diagonally across the continent's map, with China rising hugely -- in the Linux sense -- right in the middle of it all.

    Africa and the Middle East are discovering Linux in a big way, but don't have nearly as much computer/IT infrastructure or as much computer-oriented education available as (some parts of) China or India -- or South Korea or Vietnam or Malaysia. Or Japan, where it looks like Linux will soon be adopted as a preload operating system by computer manufacturers on all kinds of gear, not just on the server and workstation levels as we see 99% of the time in the U.S. and Europe.

    I see an increasing amount of Linux development and related Open Source activity coming out of Asia, almost all of it in Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and other Asian languages.

    I also see an increasing amount of Linux activity coming out of India, most of which is in English rather than in one of the many local Indian languages.

    2003: the year of Asian Linux

    I rarely make predictions. Heck, I am not all that sure I'll wake up tomorrow morning, let alone that the sun will come out from behind the clouds, assuming we have a cloudy sky tomorrow. But once in a while I let myself go and prognosticate. And this is my one and only NewsForge prognostication about Linux and Open Source in 2003: That some of the biggest advances we're going to see in the next year will come from Asia, not Europe or North America.

    Whether we'll recognize how important these advances are (whatever they turn out to be) is another matter entirely. Maybe we will, maybe we won't. But that's a column I need to write at the end of 2003, not today.
  • well (Score:4, Insightful)

    by papasui ( 567265 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @08:42PM (#4970239) Homepage
    Seeing as how China's all about creating their own processor to compete with the rest of the world they need a platform to run it on, and it's probably not gonna be Intel compatible so that rules Windows out.
  • Are You Sure? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by robbyjo ( 315601 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @08:43PM (#4970244) Homepage

    I suppose that software piracy in both China and India will still overshadow Linux in the near future. Unless both government really put an end to piracy next year, I doubt that 2003 would be the "Asian Linux" year, at least not in the short run.

    Moreover, Asia doesn't just consist of India and China, albeit they contain the most concentration of the population. But for the other countries, Linux still has a little voice. So, please don't over-generalize.

    • A lot of replies of my parent post don't understand what I meant with "piracy". If piracy is rampant, the cost difference between Linux and other what-have-you OSes are negligible. Given the predilection in favor of Windows-based system nowadays, it will take a very long time and arduous effort to shift that towards Linux. One of such effort is to put a sudden end to the piracy, which is impossible within a year, IMHO.

      Sheesh. I know that Linux is free (as in speech, but often times as in beer as well). And after following Slashdot this long, you still lecture me about that.. Heh. :-)

  • Yup, right (Score:4, Funny)

    by Spackler ( 223562 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @08:49PM (#4970266) Journal
    1995^H^H^H^H

    1996^H^H^H^H

    1997^H^H^H^H

    1998^H^H^H^H

    1999^H^H^H^H

    2000^H^H^H^H

    2001^H^H^H^H

    2002^H^H^H^H

    2003 The Year that Linux takes over the desktop!

    Where have I heard this??
  • Not in India atleast (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Gyan ( 6853 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:06PM (#4970321)
    disclaimer : I'm an Indian from Bombay.

    I don't see Linux making any significant inroads in the mass computer culture of India.

    Most savvy users in India will only pick up a tool if it can be an instrument for economic gain. This is why ofcourse, computer programming and learning it is a big thing in India. Because that's what the 20-something thinks. Learn coding and the world is open to you. The Indian mindset is not exactly open to adopting a culture where the software is free (beer) and support (LOL) is the source of revenue. Which in other words means there is no (or hardly any) revenue !

    If someone in India trys out Linux, its because of the geekish 'chic' factor. To expect a group of Indian coders to sit and down and code say, an IDE, give it away for free is fantasy*

    *Unless that group is currently in an academic or research institution where they have a stipend or other sources of income.

    Note 2: If you're going to counteract that they can sell the product as a shrinkwrap too, then you don't know the Indian software retail market :-)
    • I tend to agree with this stance, I think free software is great and I certainly appreciate those that spend the time making it and donating there work. However, many people simply don't have the time to work on huge projects in there spare time for no compensation.
    • ...then you don't know the Indian software retail market

      Perhaps I don't. It was my understanding that a great deal of the programming business going to India was for custom applications for specific clients and consultants. If that is the case, I would think that a world wide move to Linux would be a huge boom market for India.

      On the other hand, if the bulk of the product is in shrink wrap sales, then in the immediate future this wouldn't be as profitable. Even still, a Free operating system does not mean all Free software. It is still quite possible to make a buck selling closed source apps for Linux, FreeBSD, or any other flavor of Unix.

      A software company looking to work on a Unix product need not follow the exact business model of a Linux distro. An application based company has a different set of goals and would require a different business model.
    • well....there is some nice work being done out here in India....Elxlinux [elxlinux.com] being one...all of the beta testing was done in our college lab in JNTU, hyderabad... and a lot of the guys in our college....have started using and coding for Linux..."inspired" by this......so 2003 may well turn out to be the year of the Lnux...
    • Most savvy users in India will only pick up a tool if it can be an instrument for economic gain. This is why ofcourse, computer programming and learning it is a big thing in India. Because that's what the 20-something thinks. Learn coding and the world is open to you. The Indian mindset is not exactly open to adopting a culture where the software is free (beer) and support (LOL) is the source of revenue.

      And (LOL) how much money do you make by purchasing Microsoft Windows?

      Answer: none. Your argument is bogus. You don't make any money by using Windows. You only make money by selling services and products for Windows. You could make similar money by selling services and products for Linux.

      To expect a group of Indian coders to sit and down and code say, an IDE, give it away for free is fantasy

      Using Linux doesn't force you into a pact where all your own software has to be free as well. Oracle and Borland are two largish companies with closed-source non-free products for Linux . You could join that market as well.

      But in any event, the free IDE from India has already been done. Check out Anjuta [sourceforge.net].

    • by shishu ( 32947 )
      disclaimer: I'm Indian too and have worked as a SW developer in Delhi and Bangalore

      1. Yes GNU/Linux is yet to make serious inroads for the home user.
      2. No, GNU/Linux IS a huge deal in most universities and large companies.
      3. I went to IIT Delhi and we had more than a couple of labs running purely GNU/Linux and that was not because we couldn't afford Windows etc. (Actually IBM/Intel had provided machines with NT installed - we took it all out :-) and I hear things have taken off in the last 4 years since I left and there are more and more labs on campus that run GNU/Linux
      4. I worked for one of the (then) largest SW subsidiary of an American company in India and guess what !! We had a choice of desktops - NT or GNU/Linux (IT staff supported both)... and a lot of us chose GNU/Linux ... and it had nothing to do with saving money - since we had a site license for Windows NT ___ it had to do with the tools we needed and were comfortable with.
      5. GNU/Linux is trickling to the home user in India ... last time I was visiting my parents ... my Dad (who paid someone to show him how to use email/web browsers) complained about his machine being really slow and unstable (its an old Pentium 100 from my college days) ... I installed GNU/Linux for him on it and he didn't even notice any difference, he just sat back and went back to reading his email on Yahoo.
      6. Someone pointed out that Indians will only follow something that makes monetary sense. Well Indians also hate to buy a new computer every 3 years and throw old equipment out ... a lot of them are happy to recycle old PC's and install GNU/Linux on them to use for email/web surfing/chatting.
      7. A lot of development being done in India (for overseas clients ) is web applications and many people already are building these on top of Apache, Tomcat, JBoss etc. This (I hope) will eventually influence the client's decision when they think of deploying these applications. So you should see more and more applications being deployed on Open Source/Free Software at the companies which outsource development to India.
  • by MoceanWorker ( 232487 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:07PM (#4970323) Homepage


    last I checked.. 2003 is going to be the Year of the Goat [chinapage.com]

    since when was linux an animal?

  • by MoThugz ( 560556 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:10PM (#4970337) Homepage
    ...by saying insider, I'm saying that I am Asian, or more specifically a Malaysian who is working in Singapore.

    While the article would seem like a happy fairy tale for Linux supporters, the cold, hard reality is that Linux is not even known by the large majority of computer users in most parts of Asia... AND this includes the so-called high-potential areas such as China and India.

    While companies prefer to stay legit and actually buy licenses for their software (and even this is fairly recent, thanks to the BSA), a large majority of home-based consumers run pirated versions of Windows, and a bunch of pirated application which can be bought at less than US$2 per CD. This is the cold hard truth.

    And many Western media report blames the Govt for not doing anything when the fact is that they can't actually properly enforce the rules. The pirates here are true gangsters in the sense of the word... not some pimply faced kid with cable connection and terrabytes of storage like the typical image of software pirate many of you think.

    They are backed by armed thugs, scouts that check on police/IP-enforcers, and possibly insiders from the police or even the local BSA branch... yes, really!

    And to top it off, they keep the customers happy... Yes, they really do. I find these pirates more approachable than your average MS or Adobe salesperson.

    CD not working? No problem, we'll replace it for you... No questions asked.

    Two weeks guarantee on any purchased CD.

    Recommendation on a better substitute of the app you wanted to buy

    With that kind of service it's no wonder people here flock to pirated CD shops than to the legit vendors. Price is one thing, but if you are going to be severely restricted by EULAs and other licensing terms, might as well buy a pirated copy for 1/200 of the price and be happy about it.

    From a typical Asian point-of-view, there is no value-added incentive to purchase original CDs.

    Back to the topic, while companies (especially SMEs) will embrace Linux because of the money they can save from software licenses. But even so, many of the established businesses will stick to propietry software because it is what they are used to. And these are decided by the bigwigs which have no desire at all to embrace new technologies eventhough it might save them a huge pile of cash. It is in the mindset... not the software itself.

    Linux can move forward by becoming more Desktop-centric not just for home users but for corporate users. And it does not need to be free (as in beer)... most companies will invest a suitable amount of cash to improve productivity.

    Sorry for the long rant, hope u get my point.

  • A plethora of users have demonstrated here that they aren't interested in adopting Linux. They are comfy with what works for them. And since they started out with MS and Windows applications, that's what they like.

    The key phrase here is "started out with MS and Windows".

    There are literally BILLIONS of potential users who have never become used to Photoshop or Outlook Express or MSIE. This untapped userbase is ripe for the picking and if Linux is there early with an OS that is cheap and applications in their languages then Linux could have a large proportion of those users.

    Imagine Asia and Africa populated with computer users who can't see any reason to switch to Microsoft because they are used to what they have; Linux.
  • Thailand and Linux (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Daengbo ( 523424 ) <daengbo@gmaLAPLACEil.com minus math_god> on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:15PM (#4970357) Homepage Journal
    Anyone who has been here for a long time has seen my posts about Thailand, but I'll summarize what's happening here, and it's big.
    You see linux desktops and laptops in almost every computer store. All top five domestic brands, including Belta [belta.com] Liberta [liberta.co.th] and Laser ( I can't find a link), use it for their lower models. It is always the same, the National Electronics and Computer Technology (NECTEC [nectec.or.th]) organization of Thailand's own Linux TLE [opentle.org], a Red Hat based distibution that has had Thai language support and translations added to virtually every application.
    Since November,the new releases come with version 4.1R2, which is touted as "Professional," and includes OfficeTLE, an OO.o variant which includes such difficult to program features as a Thai word parser, because Thai uses no spaces between words. It, in my opinion, outshines Sun's Pladao Office [pladao.com], which translates as "Starfish." The menus for Pladao are all in Thai, but the OfficeTLE menus are in English. Books for both litter the bookstore shelves in prominant places.
    NECTEC also has a venerable serverdistribution, SIS (can't find the link), which stands for School Internet Server, and connects primary, secondary, and tertiary(?) schools to their SchoolNet, a free internet and information sharing operation.
    Free Software is kicking here in Thailand.
    For other perks, see my sig.
  • by cybereal ( 621599 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:19PM (#4970368) Homepage
    Let's watch all the idiotic redneck fools who glance briefly at the media provided propoganda. We'll see them noticing China, thinking 'red', then seeing Linux, and thinking 'red'... Ignorance is the biggest obstacle for free software these days. I hope the morons in office don't try to exploit this in a negative manner. As usual, it will probably go unnoticed, and end up meaning absolutely nothing, but, I can't help imagining what horrors could come of it. (I'll let you imagine the good stuff, it's easier)
  • by jsse ( 254124 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:31PM (#4970394) Homepage Journal
    with China rising hugely -- in the Linux sense -- right in the middle of it all.

    Right on. Look at RedFlag Linux [redflag-linux.com]. It's backed by China Government, RedHat-based Linux distro.

    In my opinion, China Government is no much an Open Source advocate, instead, MS forced them to take this path. I got some underground news when I worked for IBM around 94, when we completed each other developing a Chinese OS for Mainland China. The progress of the development our Chinese OS/2 was not as fast as Windows 95 because they outsourced their work to Taiwan and we've put comparatively too much effort on testing(I were one of the full-time tester in Asian region).

    That was the biggest mistake MS has ever made.

    As usual, MS pushed their first release of Simplified Chinese version of Win95 before thorough testing. To China Government dismay, they found that whenever they type the word 'Kung'(the first word of Communism in Chinese), the association helper immediate popup the word 'bandit' after it. 'Communist Bandit' is how Taiwanese called Communist party in Mainland China.

    That was a really good prank the Taiwanese Developers made for China Government. :)

    I've also been told that there's still a couple of nasty easter eggs hidden in this first release of OS(or Word/Excel?) that made fun of some lead people in communist party, that pissed them very much. Although MS had done everything to 'repair' the damage, but as a common practise of them "this shall not be forgiven."

    RedFlag Linux may be the first major getback on MS. :)
    • I seem to recall a big problem with Windows in India. Some OS applet, date/time I think, showed Pakistan with the bulk of Kashmir. As we all know, that's a fairly sensitive issue around those parts, and there was even talk about an Indian boycott of Windows. Can anyone add more info on this?
  • It unties the potentially tied-behind-back hands of Asian countries who have rampant pirating issues of Microsoft products. If free OSes become a hit in Asia, Gates can not eventually have Asia in his back pocket when he comes calling for Licensing Fees, and Asia gets to save tons of money with not having to pay for Windows & Upgrades, which eventually puts them on an equal footing with Western countries, so more competition, so on so on.... advantage? Everyone.
  • by George Walker Bush ( 306766 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:39PM (#4970415) Homepage
    Many of these Asian countries are part of the axis of evil, and will stop at nothing to destroy everything good the West stands for. I urge all geeks to be responsible and not let their efforts unwittingly aid terrorism or the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Thank you.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Friday December 27, 2002 @09:48PM (#4970442)
    I rarely make predictions. Heck, I am not all that sure I'll wake up tomorrow morning,

    Spoke like a true white guy running around the streets of Jordan.
  • by jlrowe ( 69115 ) on Friday December 27, 2002 @10:15PM (#4970536)
    It looks like to me that the USA and other regions that insist on not choosing the best methods may have to look for hard times.

    I say that not just because of pricing themselves out of the labor market, with Asian and other labor forces offering cheaper labor. The truth also includes cheaper *methods* which Linux is a part of, long term. Higher costs imposed my closed source and proprietary (read: Microsoft) operating systems and application software will cause higher prices for those who choose them. This making Asian markets that choose Linux even *more* competitive down the road.

  • Giving back (Score:3, Interesting)

    by mikefoley ( 51521 ) <[mike] [at] [yelof.com]> on Saturday December 28, 2002 @12:44AM (#4970948) Homepage
    It'll be interesting to see how much the Asian community gives back. I'm betting on a "Use someone elses work and make money" policy.
  • Could well be... (Score:2, Interesting)

    by uikeh ( 457671 )
    Here in Taiwan I picked up my distro at the 7-11, the local bookstore has plenty of Chinese language Linux info and the neighbourhood computer cram school teaches Linux now.
    The times THEY ARE a changing.
  • I'm a user of many systems, and I refuse to get into the holy war territory.

    However, there is one thing that bugs me, that I can do with Linux, but not with Windows.

    I would like the Framebuffer console; let's say, the 160x64 console, and let's say, maybe 5 or 8 virtual consoles, maybe running screen with cygwin bash. This is my standard terminal, it is my *favorite* video mode among all the options available to me, and it appears to be altogether IMPOSSIBLE in windows.

    Don't talk to me about fonts and terminal windows in win2k; it is not the same. You can get some nice things there, but, I cannot get the equivalent of the linux console. And I really want this.

    It doesn't have to be the framebuffer device, per se, but it definitely needs the same font options, and absolutely needs to equal or exceed the speed of the native console. NO WIN2K TERMINAL COMES CLOSE to the speed of the linux console.

    This is the first item on the list of things that keeps me running linux on my main computer, as a matter of fact. It's my first requirement!
  • Why can't we be satisfied with being a niche market where Linux's main purpose is the server, embedded, and renderfarm markets? Why must we be so intent on taking over the desktop market? I really don't mind being one of only 20 million people using for their desktop, really. It really doesn't bother me, as I'm sure it doesn't bother other people either. Sure, Microsoft can be evil, but their hold on the desktop market isn't necessarily a bad thing. We should put our strength into defending the markets we know we can hold (namely the ones I've mentioned), and defend those furiously. No empire lasts forever, neither shall Microsoft's. They will make a mistake big enough for everyone to switch. We just need to be patient. There is no need to rush foolhardy into bringing them down.

Reality must take precedence over public relations, for Mother Nature cannot be fooled. -- R.P. Feynman

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