Is 2025 the Year of the Linux Desktop? 105
The long-anticipated "year of the Linux desktop" could see renewed interest in 2025 as Microsoft's planned end of support for Windows 10 approaches, potentially driving users to explore alternatives.
With Windows 10 reaching end of support in October 2025, many users will face decisions about upgrading hardware for Windows 11 or considering different operating systems entirely. Linux distributions have evolved to offer increasingly polished desktop experiences, with improving hardware compatibility and familiar user interfaces.
2024 saw Linux adoption grow thanks to the Steam Deck's success, reaching a 4.04% market share in December, up from 3.85% during the same time last year. More Linux laptops, improved gaming compatibility, and growing awareness of its benefits also contributed to its steady rise.
With Windows 10 reaching end of support in October 2025, many users will face decisions about upgrading hardware for Windows 11 or considering different operating systems entirely. Linux distributions have evolved to offer increasingly polished desktop experiences, with improving hardware compatibility and familiar user interfaces.
2024 saw Linux adoption grow thanks to the Steam Deck's success, reaching a 4.04% market share in December, up from 3.85% during the same time last year. More Linux laptops, improved gaming compatibility, and growing awareness of its benefits also contributed to its steady rise.
foist pwost! (Score:3)
I never supported it.
Re: (Score:1)
I recently tried to reinstall Windows 11 on a friend's computer. It booted from the USB install image just fine, but would not proceed past this message [microsoft.com]. I grabbed all the drivers from Lenovo's (the manuf of the computer) site, and spoon fed them to the Windows installer, but it wouldn't budge.
Fedora booted and installed just fine. I chose the KDE spin, installed it, gave a quic
It is always "next" year (Score:2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
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Re: It is always "next" year (Score:1)
No (Score:5, Insightful)
That is all.
Re:No (Score:5, Interesting)
Linux is for smart people. So, that alone guarantees that it will never be mainstream.
Re:No (Score:5, Interesting)
I installed it on my parent's computer in 2005 after I got tired of pulling viruses out of their Windows XP machine. Best decision I ever made, now the only thing they can do is install malicious extensions in Firefox. Which they do. A couple times a year.
2005, the year of Linux on the Desktop.
Re: (Score:2, Offtopic)
2005, the year of Linux as a shim to run web browsers.
FTFY. I suspect that's all your parents do with their Linux machine. It's hardly a desktop. Heck I don't think my dad can tell the difference between using his PC and his Android tablet.
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2005, the year of Linux as a shim to run web browsers.
FTFY. I suspect that's all your parents do with their Linux machine. It's hardly a desktop. Heck I don't think my dad can tell the difference between using his PC and his Android tablet.
You're describing 99.9% of all computer users. If you don't count folks using a PC as a web browser in your stats, no computer counts other than creator machines and business machines.
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>"Best decision I ever made, now the only thing they can do is install malicious extensions in Firefox. Which they do. A couple times a year."
You can easily fix that.
https://support.mozilla.org/en... [mozilla.org]
https://mozilla.github.io/poli... [github.io]
Yay!
Re: No (Score:3)
Do you honestly think businesses would hesitate to dump Microsoft and its licensing fees if Linux was even remotely viable on the desktop? If the tech was there, they wouldnt hesitate to save all that coin.
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Microsoft supports Linux in the corporate world. I run Ubuntu 24.04 Linux on my work laptop and I can still run MS Office, Outlook and Teams because Microsoft has web browser based versions of their applications. Windows also has Linux subsystem for Windows so a Linux desktop can run within Windows.
Microsoft also contribute Linux kernel fixes.
Therefore, the lockin to running Windows is dissolving and it is being done by Microsoft themselves.
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Re: No (Score:2)
I cannot tell if this is the most pretentious comment I have ever read or if you are being sarcastic.
Re: No (Score:1)
You beat me to it
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Yeah, all it's going to really do is promote the use of hacked Windows 11 USB installers that bypass the secure boot and other hardware requirement checks.
Well... (Score:3)
I'd put it differently: Yes, 2025 is the year of the linux desktop!
And so will be 2026, 2027, 2028, ... ... (back to some time in the 1990s.)
And so was 2024, 2023, 2022,
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For me it was 2019.
Re: No (Score:1)
Most people don't even know what an OS is (Score:2)
Or that you can install an alternative one that might be better.
Being terrible, my prediction is that the steam deck alone will be the contact with desktop linux that most people will have, and many of the people that will install a different OS to their PC will be installing "the steam OS".
Re: Most people don't even know what an OS is (Score:2)
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Was looking for a serial cable a couple of years ago, and no one knew what one was. Best Buy, Staples, Office Depot, even Radio Shack. Ended up going back to the shop to pick one up. And the only "printer cable" that you're going to find anywhere any more is a USB. It's to the point where any money saved using obsolete hardware for low-level tasks is more than sucked up by the time and cost of trying to support it.
The Linux Desktop? (Score:2)
"Is 2025 the Year of the Linux Desktop?"
Probably not, but it is gaining little by little.
I don't think there will ever be a mass migration event, I think it'll be more of a slow and steady erosion of of people switching away from Windows over time.
Part of the problem is that many Windows users don't even know that there are viable alternatives out there (and no, I don't mean Macs).
Linux is everywhere in Windows. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3)
I'm sure this post will upset plenty of Linux people.
Re: Linux is everywhere in Windows. (Score:3)
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Microsoft switched to Git from their old visual source safe architecture
WTF are you even talking about? MS hasn't used SourceSafe pretty much ever internally. Not even when VB5/6 were popular. It was a dysfunctional filler product that corrupted itself and the code files if you had more than one user. No one used it, not even MS.
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"GNU/Linux" isn't even the most common Linux anymore
So if it doesn't run the Linux kernel and it doesn't use the GNU userspace, it's still Linux.
It never ceases to amaze me how desperate the Linux community is to claim any victory they can. All your data is still going to Microsoft, Apple, and Google.
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Azure is mostly Linux containers now.
Not really. The hosts in Azure run native Windows and run Linux under a Hyper-V hypervisor (whether it's WSL or Hyper-V is not known pubically) which is where the containers live.
I love this post! (Score:3)
Reading this post each year is like watching A Christmas Story and the 1966 Grinch on TV. It never gets old and if I miss it I feel empty inside!
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I haven't logged into slashdot for over five years (it was taken over by anti-semitic trolls at some point), but now that I have am 1) delighted to see the comments seem back under control and 2) completely unsurprised "Will (insert year here) be the year of the Linux desktop?" is first thing I saw. That's just too awesome.
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Oh, the antisemitic trolls are still around, it just takes a certain type of story to bring them out. Like, anything about Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, or Israel.
But yeah, this Linux Desktop fantasy never fails to amuse!
Re: I love this post! (Score:2)
Re: (Score:2)
War is a catalyst for technology, and the Gaza war is no exception.
https://www.google.com/search?... [google.com]
Re:... snowflakes ... (Score:1)
Nowadays it is almost impossible to write a single one sentence without offending someone.
Come on, you know you have to do it...
Yes (Score:5, Funny)
I know, because I'm running Linux Mint with Steam and games and stuff.
Totally the year of LOTD.
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LOTD implies popularity. If we were going with individuals using Linux on desktop then I would say 1998 was definitively the year for Linux on desktop. At least that's when I was running Mandrake. It's always been possible, just never popular. ... and it still isn't.
Coincidence (Score:3)
Absolutely (Score:2)
Happy New Year !
Cron Job? (Score:4, Funny)
Its like someone has a cron job that runs this every year that changes the year and adds a different reasons !! It's such old slashdot I start imaging a beowolf cluster running the job...
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This story always generates a bunch of clicks (i.e., ad impressions), so it wouldn't surprise me if the slashdot editors have just such an automated job!
Relevant tweet from last year (Score:2)
https://x.com/slashdot/status/1733606639608250839?mx=2
Nope and never will be. (Score:5, Informative)
Every time MS has EOL'd version of Windows, we see this same question show up or someone writing an article about how this will make it the year of the LInux desktop. I've been using Linux since 1996, and I can tell you - sadly but honestly, that it will never be the "Year of the LInux Desktop" where Linux suddenly breaks out and get's insane mainstream adoption. if Linux does become very popular, it's going to be a gradual gain over many years, just like has happened since the 90's. And probably the most we could ever hope for is to reach parity with or slightly exceed MacOS as an install base.
My 2 jaded cents.....
It's not too hard to use; that's largely resolved. Linux is just too fragmented to catch on in a big way. There are too many permutations and flavors, and it makes it difficult for devs and 3rd party vendors to target. If the LSB base had taken off and we could rally everyone around one package manager, one package format, and one desktop and GUI toolkit, then maybe it would have a chance, but now, at almost 30 years of Linux usage, that hasn't happened and is unlikely ever to happen. If everyone wants Linux to go mainstream, everyone should get behind one distribution and one desktop. - but every time a good candidate comes along, everyone craps on them (ahem, canonical), sometimes deservedly, often not. We are like a community of crabs in a bucket; as soon as one looks like it's going to break out, the rest pull it back down and climb on top of its carcass. IMO, Ubuntu was the best chance for this to happen, and community infighting (mostly coming from Red Hat and the Gnome people) made sure to torpedo any chance that had of becoming the de facto standard. Sadly, I got tired of all of this and moved to a Mac as my main machine a couple of years ago, but I still keep my Linux box for dev purposes. THere are times when I really do miss my KDE desktop though.
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If we were limited to just one desktop, it truly wouldn't be a Linux experience. I could maybe agree with one package manager, and far less distros. But the whole point of something like Linux is to give you control- and different users want different desktops, at a minimum.
For the 80% of people coming over to Linux that don't know or care about desktops or distros, Mint + Cinnamon will probably do most everything they need/want. It is nice, simple, lots of features (but not too many), sane defaults, wel
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Thank you for proving my point precisely.
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Why the obsession with the Desktop? (Score:2)
People run Linux because they like it, not because it "came with their computer". No one ever installed Linux because it was popular. While there may be many good reasons to run Linux, popularity was never one of them. This obsession with "Year of the Linux Desktop" seems rather pointless to me, because Linux always strived to be good, not popular.
Popularity brings compatibility (Score:2)
Popularity is a means to an end, this end being compatibility. In this capitalist system of things, the more popular an operating system is, the more seriously application publishers and peripheral manufacturers will take it.
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Linus said the same thing a year ago. Too many distros and packaging systems, too much work to support.
It will be interesting to see what happens as Windows 10 makes millions of decent spec laptops available for next to nothing. My guess is a boost for ChromeOS.
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What would be the point of Linux with One True Desktop?
The entire reason I like it is because I can have a weird setup from the old unix days that works well for me and likely no one else.
We are like a community of crabs in a bucket; as soon as one looks like it's going to break out, the rest pull it back down and climb on top of its carcass.
We are nothing like that. Me running FVWM doesn't affect anything.
THere are times when I really do miss my KDE desktop though.
Then run KDE. You have no more need to eng
haven't checked this site in eons, this is what I (Score:2)
Linux on the Desktop (Score:2)
Linux: Super COOL 3D Desktop Effects! [youtube.com] (06:51) (13 years ago)
Re: (Score:2)
First thing I installed in Mint / Cinnamon was the Compiz "wobbly windows" clone extension :) What a blast
https://cinnamon-spices.linuxm... [linuxmint.com]
Betteridge's has a law for that... (Score:3)
TL;DR: The answer is no.
Long Answer:
Just like Win98SE's life was extended by a dedicated community with tools like KernelEx... and...
Just like WinXP's life was extended by a deddicated community by modding the registry to get ESU patches, and then by extracting patches from Server and IoT versions in an easy to use way for non-tech people... and...
Just like Win7's life was extended by a dedicated community that modiffyed the registry keys to get the ESU pathches, and IS EXTENDING IT EVEN NOW by pulling patches from Server Versions and with 0patch...
Windows 10's life will be extended by dedicated volunteers by hacking the registry to get the ESU patches (so, until ~Oct 2028), then by using LTSC2019 (So ~ early 2030), then by using IoT 2021 (so ~early 2032) and beyond that, by 0patch.
So, for some people, the extra work to keep Win10 secure (if they even care about that), will be perceived as less work than the work of learning Linux.
And if in the interveening years, they buy a new machine, it will come with Win11 or 12.
So no, sadly, 2025 will NOT be the year of the Linux desktop, and neither will be 2026(when ESU for normal users end), 2028 (when all ESU ends), 20230 (when LTSC 2019 support ends) or 2032 (when IoT support ends).
Written from my MacBook Air Early 2014, With OCLP enabled sequoia, with the Kali, CBPP, and Zorin VBox VMs
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normal people won't do any registry hacks but might do Microsoft's $30 year of additional support.
I agree 100% with you. As a matter of fact, I intend to pay MS U$D 30 myself, to run Bootcamped Win10 on my macMini for one more years. Having said that:
Normal people will not do registry hacks, but normal people will run a tiny little script recomended by some influencerthat does the hack for them after ESU ends in 2026.
Normal people will not do registry hacks, but when their computers become virus infested due to no security patches, they take it to the nearst mom-and-pop-computer-shop... And when the mac
It's up to 4.04% adoption now (Score:2)
https://gs.statcounter.com/os-... [statcounter.com]
Oh wait, that's down from a few months ago. Uh-oh.
Hopefully not (Score:4, Insightful)
That was years ago (Score:2)
2000 was the year of the FreeBSD desktop for me, and 2009 was the year of the Linux (Ubuntu) desktop for me, and I was a (Windows) system administrator for a large international company.
Windows has always been a failure of an operating system to me, highlighted once more this week when a Windows 7 laptop lost the second disk frequently in a flaky caddy while trying to sync a mirror volume, and not a single error about it was recorded in the logs at any time exxcept the eventual disk gone error.
I've always h
Well people won't be buying new desktops (Score:2)
because of the tariffs
but that doesn't necessarily mean they will switch to Linux
Not until support is a thing (Score:2)
Computers need to be shipped with a choice. When first powered up: Press L to use Linux or W to use Windows. After that the computer is configured for that OS. Deals need to be struck with computer manufacturers and Linux distros as well. When you choose Linux you are getting a paid version installed that comes with tech support. We need a way to get money into the hands of Linux distros so they can thrive.
No (Score:2)
There will not be a year of the Linux desktop until Microsoft office runs natively on it. Sorry, but the other options arenr good enough. If they were, businesses would use them in mass quantities.
Re: (Score:2)
Office hardly "runs natively" on a windows PC anymore, at least for the home user. Microsoft has been trying to ram office 365 on the cloud down our throats for a few years now, making it harder and harder to just run a local copy of Office.
Fortunately, Libre Office is pretty mature these days, and there's always Windows in a Linux VM if you really MUST have some Windows-only software.
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At work I run the MS Office web browser variant on my Linux Ubuntu 24.04 laptop. I also run Outlook and Teams on Linux via the MS web browser applications. Microsoft supports Linux in the corporate world and provides Linux kernel fixes. I don't need Windows to be able to run MS applications.
Windows itself has Linux subsystem for Windows which allows a Linux desktop to run inside Windows.
It does seem that Microsoft has turned away from the dark-side and is now a supported of Linux.
Pointless. (Score:2)
Nobody ever won a race by doing the same as the guy in front. If you want to win races, you have to do something the guy in front isn't doing. And, ideally, you chase after goals your opponents haven't yet seen.
Linux is the stuff of innovation and invention, but in terms of desktop-ness, it's going backwards. There is also no serious likelihood of innovative GUI work on Linux, the IBMers and Microsofters are working far too hard at dragging Linux into the 1980s.
Forget the desktop. Create new niches and new
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The new niche is stability, not changing fundamental things without choice, look at Windows start menu, now a flaming pile of shit - two non-interacting processes in one UI, not resizable, not configurable, primarily an ad-delivery service. Let's not get started with co-pilot.
This is not innovation, this is follow where we lead even if that destination favours user commoditization over user productivity.
Windows is the Facebook of operating systems.
Yes! and No. (Score:2)
For people like me, windoze 11 is the straw that broke the camels back. Once I get booted off Win10, that is it.
For "the general public".... nope. I expect to see this same article in a few years when Micro$haft has a massive security breach the spills bank details and everything else people save on their computers.
That MAY be the final straw, when people realise they don't need spyware scanners, their OS is the spyware.
Windows is EASY. Win 10 was free (I think?) and just works. You can point to cloudstrike
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For me? Yep! (Score:4, Insightful)
Same as 2024. And 2023. And 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995 and 1994.
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It's about definition (Score:2)
The "Year of the Linux Desktop" isn't the year that it suddenly surpasses Windows in market share. It's the year that when you go to say, buy a mouse or some speakers, you can bet the vendor supports Linux as much as they support Windows or Mac.
We're almost there. It's insane how much stuff supports Linux now compared to five, ten, twenty years ago. A lot of stuff "just works" and when it does, it often is because the vendor themselves is contributing the work. (Example: Sony's PS5 controller is basically t
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It's the year that when you go to say, buy a mouse or some speakers, you can bet the vendor supports Linux as much as they support Windows or Mac.
Why would I want worse support than I have now? Hardware vendors are not operating system developers, and your drivers should be coming from who gives you your OS, not who provides the hardware. The hardware vendor needs to be cooperative with developers or they don't have a product worth buying. Fortunately, most vendors figured this out years ago already.
I've been using Linux since 1996. Just got a new gearshift controller for Truck Sim for Christmas. Linux support? Just plug it in. Windows support
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Every year since 1997 (Score:2)
it's been the year of Linux Desktop at my house since 1997. Before that, it was the years of the OS/2 desktop. And before that, a couple years of Deskmate desktop on the good ol Tandy 1000
No. For Obvious Reasons. (Score:2)
Linux does not need a large desktop market share. It is very successful in other areas. There is no unified Linux desktop experience and the effort to make that happen and to get vendors on board doesn't make economic sense, not to mention the technical complexity involved.
Linux users don't want a unified experience, they like having choices. So, by trying to expand Linux into the desktop market, you lose the market you have already have.
Now, you might get more Linux users and slowly grow the market, but yo
Does it need to be? (Score:2)
Linux is the operating system for general computing and servers these days. Corporate desktops are a niche market and about the only place Windows has a foothold. And even if you run Windows at home, it's still a minority niche when you consider your TVs run Linux, as do their set top boxes, and your Android, and your cable modem and router. Microsoft doesn't even use Windows as extensively as you assume it would inhouse. Azure? Also Linux. Seems to me even Microsoft's asking the question "what even i
Correlation between last B52 pilot and Desktop Lx (Score:2)
There's a saying , in the AF, the Last B-52 Pilot has not been born yet. The First Linux User , when it actually becomes the year of desktop Linux, has not been born yet. Thus we are stuck in an infinite loop.
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The First Linux User , when it actually becomes the year of desktop Linux, has not been born yet.
That's somewhat ill defined. The last machine I owned that natively booted Windows on bare metal was a Pentium 133 MHz running Windows 95. I discovered Linux some time around 1998 (I can run my own unix at home?? and the compiler is right there?????) and never looked back.
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I heard another saying from the AF about that plane: "your father's plane".
And yes, one of the current pilots on those planes is actually flying the plane that his father did before him.
Believe it was a video series about old and significant military planes that served (or still serve) in the U.S. Air Force. Saw it on Discovery most likely, perhaps a year or so ago.
Excel (Score:2)
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Only in accounts.
My current and former job were both at pretty new companies (the current one being a real startup). MS office was nowhere to be seen. In my former job, I expect accounts used excel, but I'm not in accounts. In both places gsuite was mostly used, with some additional system for technical documentation.
I am not going to defend gsuite here: it's a right massive steaming pile of absolute fucking shit. It's like a bunch of just-out-of-college kids who had never properly used an office suite went
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MS Excel is available from Microsoft as a web browser application. I also run Outlook and Teams on my work Linux Ubuntu 24.04 laptop. You don't need Windows to be able to run MS applications.
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Word Features Comparison: Web vs Desktop [microsoft.com]
Differences Between Using a Workbook in the Browser and in Excel [microsoft.com]
The benefits of Linux for most companies are saving peanuts in Windows licenses, and any additional complications they will have from not using Desktop Excel/Word/PPT will be much more costly.
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OK, but I don't run Windows at work. I mostly use Outlook and Teams on Linux so that I can communicate with my colleagues. I rarely use Office so I'm not bothered by any limitations of the web applications. I think my employer is more interested in cross-platform compatibility rather than having a lockin to Windows. For my employer, cost is secondary to an employee working effectively in their working environment. Note that my employer uses Microsoft to provide corporate Intranet integration with the Ubuntu
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Actually, not until businesses grow weary of having their corporate networks raped and pillaged on a regular basis.
No (Score:2)
It will never be the year of the linux desktop.
Sorry.
Why Not Linux? (Score:2)
Anwer: It's the learning curve. It doesn't matter if Linux is 2X or 3X better than WinX, the thing is that everyone knows what a bitch it has been to learn all the ins and outs of Windows, and figures it will be just as much time and pain to learn the little things about Linux too. People hate that. It's also the reason that metric isn't going to fly in the USA. We all know by inspection what 6 inches is, but if said in centimeters or millimeters, there will have to be math. Math every time. Pe
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the thing is that everyone knows what a bitch it has been to learn all the ins and outs of Windows,
Is it though? I'm apparently still the guy who is good at fixing technical problems on Windows. The last version of Windows I ran natively was Windows 95, and briefly ran XP and 10 in a VM for an old compiler for an obscure bit of hardware. Most people who "know windows" apparently don't know it at all.
Wasn't that already back in the 1990s... (Score:2)
... when CPUs like the 486 DX 50 came out and 4 Megs of RAM became the minimum and anybody seriously using a PC was switching from MS-DOS to Linux?
I mean today MS-DOS is mostly found in some old embedded systems. Windows NT is claimed to still exist on the desktop of some companies just like OS/2 is.
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I mean, my desktop PC is running Windows NT 10, commonly referred to as 'Windows 10,' though Server 2016 through 2025 and Windows 11 are also part of the NT 10 family.
Betteridge would like a word (Score:1)
And the word is...
(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headlines)
ChromeOS (Score:2)
Why does ChromeOS get overlooked in this statistic? Since before covid damn bear every public school student is issued a chromebook for school work and lessons. If that isnt a linux desktop then someone cant properly take tolls. Linux is already the operating kernel on a majority of smartphones which is a desktop to more people than actually own a computer. Their smartphone is de facto, their computer. Technically the linux kernel has been pervasive in their life for a good 10 years. ChromeOS and Ubuntu des
Year of the Linux desktop (Score:2)
For me it has been the year of the linux desktop since 1998. That is, um, 27 years of the Linux desktop. I don't feel loathing for the dull thuds who do not understand why they must not drink the Microsoft koolaid, or Apple for that matter. I only feel bewilderment and pity. Oh, and anger at you dull thuds for making government and corporate data unsafe by your misguided idiocy. You know who you are.
Jeez ... Not this again? (Score:2)
Every year this comes up ...
ham radio software (Score:2)
ham radio software is the only reason I own a windows machine. I mostly use a MBP.
Every year the raspberry pi is upgraded I do a minor test of the ubuntu desktop. I also used to try with a VM about once a year. I've been trying for about 20 years. I am going to take my old Intel MBP and give it a shot again. If I can get wine running for the ham radio apps life is good.
But because of the Shark RF openspot, I am tied to OSX on a M? procesor. jut cannot win.
One day I'll get the Freedom laptop running linux