Linux in 2004? 456
An anonymous reader writes "John Terpstra and Eric S. Raymond have started the ball rolling on LinuxWorld's poll of the community for what they think will happen in the world of Linux in 2004. Terpstra says 'I predict that during 2004 at least one significant USA government body will adopt Linux on the desktop.'" Depending on how you define "significant", this has already occurred.
As long as ESR sticks to asking the questions.... (Score:2, Funny)
Windows will be obsolete when PCs cost less than $350: http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=02/02/28/13242
MS monopoly to collapse in 6 months: http://slashdot.org/articles/00/12/13/216237_F.sh
Apt (Score:5, Interesting)
"I think 2004 is going to be a big year for Fedora and Suse, and a challenge for Debian (because Fedora now offers apt for RPM)."
Well apart from the fact that apt for rpm has been around for a while [freshrpms.net] and also debian packages usually come configured a lot better than fedora are aren't as buggy.
Of course with the recent Debian security breach things might not be that easy
Rus
Re:Apt (Score:5, Insightful)
Agreed. The power of apt isn't necessarily the tool, it's the repository that apt connects to. After all, it's the thousands of packages that are tested against each other that creates a cohesive system.
Re:Apt (Score:4, Insightful)
Rus
Re:Apt (Score:5, Funny)
Once the sources for apt for rpm become more robust, then Debian may have something to worry about, after all, the installation of Fedora actually made me smile it was so easy.
-Steve
P.S. I know that GodLikePowers also wouldn't work on Debian, it was simply an example.
Re:Apt (Score:3, Informative)
Well Debian has more no doubt about it, they've been at the apt game for years. But on fedora do yum list "*" |wc -l I had about 1,800 packages and as any fedora user knows about 10 new ones have been added each day since its release. So it _COULD_ catch up to debians 3,000 packages couldn't it? Its only been a few weeks, give it some time.
Eek. But thats the problem. Its not even how many damn packages there are. Its the fact that they all work.... together... Debian has a stable collection that plays w
Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python (Score:5, Insightful)
2004 will be a year when many corporations, especially those who will try to adapt Linux as a primary desktop platform, will recognize Gentoo for several reasons:
Please, explain to me why.
* Portage gives a corporate IT the most fine-grained dependency control protecting the consistency of installations within upgrades;
I don't agree with this one. Corporations that "roll their own" packages have the same advantage. Movifying SRPMS can acheive the same effect.
* Gentoo makes possible to compile everything from sources on a reference hardware, adapting by that to the last bit of any available performance optimization, and then distribute the compiled binares to compatible hardware cross the enterprise (using GRP for fresh installations and just shared /usr/portage/packages for already installed systems);
Normally I would respond to this one saying that most people who use CFLAGS to optimize binaries actually hurt themselves, but corporations would have people that actually know how to use them best (i.e. -Os over -O3 or even -O2). However, I don't think that this is really an issue for corporations.
* Gentoo (mostly thanks to Portage) represents really the next generation design of Linux distro;
How so, specifically? There is something to be said for having a dedicated box to building binaries for the whole infrastructure, but the idea that Gentoo can do this and no other distro can is rather ignorant.
Gentoo is a really cool distribution (no joke), but I fail to see any technical advantages it has over other distributions. It's real strengths are in how it brings a lot of advanced administration techniques down to the level of an intermediate-level user. Plus the forums are cool, and portage is really well maintained.
Trust me on this one, though, there's no actual technical superiority over other distributions.
By the way, can you do reverse dependency checking yet? Like uninstalling gtk, and having every app that builds against gtk also unistall? I'm not "knocking" it if it can't (this isn't too important to corporations anyways), I'm just curious.
Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python (Score:4, Insightful)
No WONDER everyone seems to have this thing against Gentoo users. I think a lot of us get too caught up in our own distribution's "superiority" without remembering that the cool part of multiple distributions appeal to certain people. However tons of people seem to wish their particular distro will catch on and take the mainstream.
Frankly, as a Gentoo user, I don't ever want it to "take over" (and being source based I don't think it will). I like its niche and I like its community. Mass usage is going to kill that.
I don't think Gentoo is ever going to appeal to "big" corps or businesses. Small shops perhaps (I use it for all my operations) but the big guys? Nope. Corporations like dealing with corporations, it's that simple.
Re:Oh, for God's sake. Stop the elitism. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python (Score:3)
And coding on assembly language (instead of a high-level one) can be used for developing applications too. Portage helps and protects in a similar way as a garbage collector. We use Portage in our company and we know it already.
However, I don't think that this is really an issue for corporations.
You did not work in the corp with hundreds of newest (P4), hundreds of older (P3) and still dozens of the oldest (P-II) PCs.
the idea that Gentoo can do this and no
Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python (Score:3, Insightful)
This is all in theory, however. I am unsure if there is any reason for it. If machines get fast enough that people don't mind a compile as part of
Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python (Score:3, Funny)
That's one of differences of Gentoo from other distros: in Gentoo you don't spend weeks of your time for tweaking, you just say what flags to use, and ebauild will decide in a very consistent way where it is appropriate or not.
No, instead you spend a week defining all those USE flags, then wait two weeks for the stuff to compile, and THEN you spend weeks tweaking.
My Bet Is On 2006 (Score:5, Informative)
I can't really put my finger on just why that year sticks out, but it does. I suspect that it will take a year+ for 2.6 to mature/be accepted to the point where most major distros are shipping it and most howtos are being written for it. I also suspect that both GNOME and KDE will reach another major version by 2006 (haven't checked their road maps... just hoping.) I also hope that device support will continue to grow as it has, configuration tools will mature more, and the "your mama" test will be more easily passed. I doubt all that will happen in the next twelve months.
As for what I think COULD happen? I think a major U.S. gov't agency could start putting GNU/Linux into major use. I think we will see a lot more adoption abroad. Maybe even a first world national government promoting it in some way. I understand GNU/Linux desktop usage will top Mac desktop usage (was a
Now I'm just rambling. This made very little sense. sorry. It is 2:30 AM EST... I'm going to bed.
Howto's.. (Score:2)
I think it won't be read until howto's are a thing (primarily) of the past.
Re:Howto's.. (Score:3, Informative)
Does Germany Count? (Score:5, Informative)
Like, say, Germany? [bbc.co.uk]
Nah, Education is the Future (Score:5, Interesting)
I've suggested to our [poor] school district that we should switch to Linux, using the old hardware we have, and they liked they idea but said it would be "too hard to implement". Oh, come now. I think that any kid could easily circumnavigate a Linux interface, especially if it is an easy one, like Mandrake 9.x or Lycoris! I sure would want my kids to learn Linux, and this is a cheap(free, actually) solution for those school districts that just can't seem to raise any money. In addition, get a good IT guy at the helm, fire all the low-waged IT guys who don't know what they're doing, and get that network running smoother than ever with Linux!
It's a SHOCK to me that school districts haven't at least started putting in an "Operating Systems 101" class in high school for everyone to learn about alternative OS's. Linux, Macintosh OS, Solaris, FreeBSD, UNIX, just imagine how much that would open up the minds of those kids!
Re:Nah, Education is the Future (Score:5, Informative)
XFce runs GREAT on older hardware without sacrificing a lot of nice bits of modern stuff (anti-aliased fonts, gtk2, etc). I just dropped Vector Linux on an old Celeron 366 with 64 megs (it's an old HP) and added XFce4 and it works like a charm.
Re:My Bet Is On 2006 (Score:5, Insightful)
Well Microsoft threw a fit and is one of the biggest lobbiests. They pressured dozens of senators with the phrase "Lost jobs" and "Communist" and they wrote legislation to ban code being release to the GPL and Linux at the NSA. Now are tax dollars are used to buy copies of Windows to help Microsoft.
Gotta love corporate influence.
Other governments its a different story because they are not all whores like ours.
Re:My Bet Is On 2006 (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm afraid that other countries' reluctance to use Microsoft has very little to do with being whores.
I mean, put yourself in their shoes. You can use a foreign OS that you can't see the insides of to connect to the internet made in a country that is a superpower and wants to stay that way. Or, you can pick Linux, which may be made partially in the USA but at least you can look on the insides, modify it, and have your geeks keep an eye for any trojans.
Deciding not to use Windows has little to do with whether or not they're whores and everything to do with nationalism and national security.
In fact if anything, other countries are just whores to their own businesses instead of USA's businesses. Which makes sense, obviously.
Generally corporate interference with and influence on government increases -- out of necessity -- the closer a country is to Socialism. This should be obvious: In a Socialist system, influencing the government is the ONLY way for a business to be successful! For that reason, the US government isn't the big whore it's made out to be compared to the rest of the world.
Re:My Bet Is On 2006 (Score:4, Insightful)
Breaks out tinfoil hat.
No sooner did the towers fall than China had us flags and bumber stickers shipping in at alarmingly sudden rates...
Patriotism for anyone in the free world should be the celebration of liberty, the glorification of the decision to exersize that liberty for the benefit of humanity, and the denouncement of taking advantage of said liberty.
US Gov't on Linux (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:5, Funny)
That just has to be called TinfoilHat Linux.
Soko
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:5, Funny)
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:3, Informative)
The NSA's version is called SE-Linux [nsa.gov], for Security Enhanced Linux. It has a "strong, flexible mandatory access control architecture incorporated into the major subsystems of the kernel. The system provides a mechanism to enforce the separation of information based on confidentiality and integrity requirements. This allows threats of tampering and bypassing of application security mechani
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:2)
I was reading something about them wanting to have completely separate OS's running in multiple instances (with no shared memory addresses) and separate networks, but on one machine. Never heard anything beyone the statement of what they were developing, however. It would be pretty interesting to see.
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:2)
I dont know if youve worked with multiple computers at the same time, but it does get kind of annoying, especially if you need to copy info from one to another. Something as simple as a cut and paste would magnify how fast you can work.
So,
Re:US Gov't on Linux (Score:5, Funny)
What will drive Linux adoption (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not about having "good enough" software. It's about having feature-for-feature replacements that are open and secure. It isn't enough that sendmail, procmail, spamassassin, ical, etc. can be put together to implement most of the MS Exchange features; it's going to be the drop-in replacement that drives adoption.
Once people are used to using the drop-in replacements, they will be able to migrate away from closed and proprietary solutions. Until the drop-ins are available, Linux will not make huge inroads. (all IMHO, of course)
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:2)
Linux is already making huge inroads, and the more businesses and government agencies that switch, the more others out there will begin to budge.
Most businesses haven't "tipped" yet because Linux is still in the "maven" stage of adoption, meaning that only businesses actively interested in this new OSS phenomenon are even experimented with it yet. I don't think the reason most companies haven't switched yet is because they need a step-by-step process; I think the reaso
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:2, Funny)
the Microsoft operating systems proved themselves?
Very many of you, have not yet forgotten
the Blue Screen of Death. It is still all over
the place, and Windows has never proved it itself;
and yet, Windows has been widely adapted.
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:5, Insightful)
Maybe commercial companies will port to Linux!! Oh no, you say, isn't that illegal by RMS's communist manifesto? Sorry to break your fantasy, but it is legal, only Microsoft wants you to believe otherwise.
Take a look at the special effects industry and you will see that there is lots of commercial, closed-source, for-profit software being written for Linux.
PS: What Linux really needs is to be pre-installed on machines in a store. However it appears that Microsoft is still disallowing dual-boot machines to be sold.
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:3, Insightful)
That's not exactly an attitude that's going to pursuade the world that Linux is a viable alternative.
OK, none of us have time to be full-time babysitters, but it doesn't hurt to give the newbie a bit of friendly help when it's required, and it goes a long way towards the user feeling good about it at a time when getting anything to work can be frustrating.
I can still remember the frustration 9 years ago when I was struggling to get an X server runn
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:3, Insightful)
Multimedia might also be another roadblock. And by multimedia I am including games and the like. Joe just wants to use the computer, and most likely his computer usage consists of about %90 games and web browsing. Two good examples are RealMedia and Flash. I realise that there are solutions to both of these, but the quality is nothing compared to what is available for Mac or Windows.
Also, there are still some hardware issues to work out. Digital cameras, printers,
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:2, Interesting)
Really? My experiences don't agree with your observations.
I haven't had any problems with Flash [macromedia.com], it's just as annoying as the Windows version when displaying ads, lets me play the little flash games, navigate all the flash sites, and see all the flashtastic content on the web.
As for RealMedia, their new Helix Player [helixcommunity.org] has been working
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:2)
But don't forget about the "moms" out there who won't want to take the time to learn how to seek software like this. Perhaps a simple distribution (there might be onw) where there are fewer things geared towards the techie, like DDD,
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:5, Interesting)
When such a solution appears, that will mark a major milestone for Linux in potentially replacing Windows in many organisations.
Re:What will drive Linux adoption (Score:4, Insightful)
That's why Microsoft is so afraid. All new stuff is going the Linux-route while Microsoft is basically stuck without any new revenue sources.
But on established stuff, you are right, drop-in replacements are very successful, probably the best example is Samba which may be already used more often than Windows files servers...
I think... (Score:5, Funny)
Depending on how you define "in my house", this has already occurred.
My predictions (Score:2)
And there are still Soviet Russia jokes on Slashdot.
Re:My predictions (Score:5, Insightful)
The kernel will get up to at least 2.6.10 by December '04, and KDE will probably release 3.3 (or 4.0) later on in the year as well, along with Gnome 3.0.
Re:My predictions (Score:2)
Doesn't DOD already use it? (Score:2, Interesting)
The image we want to project? (Score:5, Interesting)
The real goal is to have people see Linux as a viable alternative, not a cheap Windows imitation or some eccentric thing the government uses.
Re:The image we want to project? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The image we want to project? (Score:3, Interesting)
Actually, across the world millions of people use Linux.
Why? Because it supports a tiny fraction of the hardware normal people actually want to use,
Define "tiny." It actually supports more hardware than Windows does. It also supports most hardware that most people have. Hardly "tiny."
because other than Mozilla, Evolution and Open Office there is simply no usable software that runs on it,
I use many, many more pieces of software than
Re:The image we want to project? (Score:3, Interesting)
The image needs to be: If you have a GOOD computer in your home, use it for Linux! Give the trash computer to Windows. Most people will quickly realize that Linux outperforms Windows and is snappier to use if the hardware is equivalent.
(I actually have 2
I agree in large part to this... (Score:2)
I think Sun may have a winner with the Java Desktop... though the Java in the desktop is suspect... it's Linux... You show people how to save money AND get the job done and they're converts...
We do still have to plug away at high performance in a few areas that make the most gains... Keep the storage, I/O, and a few emerging gadgets s
A year of peace..... (Score:2)
Darl and gang.
My thoughts... (Score:5, Insightful)
If not strictly meaning desktop applications, I'd say overall infrastructure. Web servers, mail servers, etc. And this will take place mostly in governments that can't afford MS licensing (it's already happening).
# Will 2004 *finally* be the year when Linux makes significant in-roads on the desktop?
No. The new X movements are just now gaining momentum, and it will take quite a while before it starts really biting into MS marketshare. I'd say 2006 maybe, like a previous poster. And that's *if* things go well.
# Which distributions will show the greatest growth in 2004?
I'd say Fedora (corporate), Knoppix (safety of cd distro), and Gentoo (great distro, great community).
# Will the SCO debacle slow Linux adoption over the next year?
No. I think it will die soon. It is just a matter of time before the whole thing is brought before a judge who is able to sort through the SCO lawyer crap, and when that happens, they'll throw the whole thing out.
# Will Tux finally get a girlfriend?
Yes. The hottie in Matrix 3. (he can have anyone)
# Or, make your own question(s) up...
Q: What is the single most annoying thing about the Linux community?
A: Irrational trash-talking about Microsoft. There are plenty of *rational* ways to criticize them, and people should stick to those arguments rather than ranting on and on about the same old tired issues. At some point the Bill Gates and Blue Screen jokes just lose their luster.
Re:My thoughts... (Score:2)
Yeah, for you maybe. But for those just joining the comunity they're still shinny and new
Re:My thoughts... (Score:2)
Yeah, you have a point there.
Re:My thoughts... (Score:5, Insightful)
Interesting post up to that point. The main reason being that you can't view community as a single entity. The Linux "community" you are speaking of includes millions of Linux users worldwide. You can't judge everyone under one "community" umbrella. Obviously, by the virtue of the size of the "community", if you listen, you will hear almost all kinds of opinions - some of which you agree with, some of which you may view as disappointing or even annoying and irrational. And, in my opinion, that should be expected. What would you have otherwise? That everyone had a single voice? Only one type of opinion on everything? That's not only unrealistic, it's outright bad.
The growth of Linux users will only result in more diversity in what you refer as "community", and that's a good thing (tm). Sure, some attitudes are annoying, some opinions stupid, others are clever and reasonable; yet others flaming everyone else in sight. It's exactly the same as in every other "community" of sufficient size, Mac, Linux, Windows, or anything else.
Re:My thoughts... (Score:2)
Is it though? I don't know, it just seems tired usually. I agree that if someone does it in some new and creative way, then yeah, but most anti-MS rhetoric is becoming cliche at this point.
I guess the goal of any self-respecting MS-hater should be to make fun of them in a way that no one has yet.
top ten (Score:5, Funny)
9) people still won't spell well on slashdot
8) Bill Gates will spread FUD
7) A slashdot poster will get sued by David Lettermen for top ten copyright violation
6) Microsoft will announce that Linus T. uses windows. This will be true, except they will fail to add "to look out of."
5) SCO will disappear.
4) A major exploit will be discover in Linux.
3) Apple will stop supporting anything they released in 2003.
2) DOOM III will be released for Linux.
and the number one thing that will effect the linux world: You.
Thanks Michael (Score:4, Funny)
I think I speak for everyone here when I say "welcome back!"
Not him again! (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Not him again! (Score:2)
Re:Not him again! (Score:3, Insightful)
It's RMS that's going to repell people from the community; his uncompromising principles really turn off people who don't understand why Freedom in software is important.
Hell, ESR is one of the people who coined the term "Open Source", and as a result he's been bringing more people INTO the community (ie, people who were previously repelled by RMS's obnoxious ethics
Never happen until... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Never happen until... (Score:5, Insightful)
We need to educate people of the value of open standards for file formats. Fortunately, this is starting to happen. Sitting back and saying "Microsoft's proprietary bloated file formats are standard and will always be" is suicide. There's nothing about them that is superior to the OOo formats.
Keep advocating and give it time. Interest in OOo keeps increasing. As more governments consider its use, more individuals and corporations will also need to try it.
But until that happens, send PDF files. They usually work better than going from one version of Word to another anyway.
Success on the desktop (Score:2, Insightful)
What I want in 2004 . . . (Score:4, Insightful)
I think everyone agrees that rpms suck. Most of the good code comes in source tarballs - configurable for any *nix... but this is where the user experience falls apart. What person is going to want to dig out the command line to compile source code, and will he or she know about all the ocnfigure options... and then, will there be dependency issues (or should the source contain the dependencies too?). Then there are the legal issues of bundling dependancies... and then there will be future commercial Linux apps which won't want to include source code.
In an ideal world, packaged installs will be a compressed single file, containing all source code, configurable on any *nix like normal source code EXCEPT that now there's a graphical interface so that setting compile options, creating desktop shortcuts, and "Make clean, make install, make uninstall" now all work under X with a point-and-click.
PLEASE! Will someone serious about standardizing Linux installs do something about this... or desktop Linux will never take off.
Re:What I want in 2004 . . . (Score:3, Interesting)
RPMs are dire, unless they are the common ones included in the distro. On my Mandrake box, I seriously prefer tar.gz packages because they are just more reliable.
The problem is maintaining an accurate database of what depends on what. Debian have rigorous testing procedures, they test everything so many times that it get out-of-date.
Two ways out of it:
RPM sucks? (Score:4, Insightful)
Really? Who? Have you looked at the feature-list for RPMs? It has a *LOT* of good features that makes it a joy for packaging software programs. It's very well defined and easy to write spec file format(yes its nit-picky -- but that's good), package signing, package integrity checking(i.e. missing files), package querying, dependent lib checking, SRPMS format, idea of prestine sources, package roll-back(very cool), etc.
What sucks about RPMs is that rpm *installation* utilities are stupid. RPM was designed by Redhat as a format to install/upgrade distro-packages - so all dependencies would already be satisfied. Meaning you have to explicitly provide all dependent RPMs during installation. This is the part that sucks. The higher-level utilities are not smart enough to satisfy dependencies by themselves, and we experience dependency hell.
Using a tool like apt will solve this problem, but it doesn't know if a particular RPM is 'pure' or has been 'tainted'. A 'pure' RPM only uses libs/packages provided by the distro-vendor, while a 'tainted' RPM contains custom "external" dependencies. In the latter case, apt will not be able to figure out dependent RPMs without the user providing an additional repository. However 'tainted' RPMs are the fault of the packager - and it's the packager's responsibility for dependency checking -- not RPM.
Finally, many rpms cannot work interchangibly on different distros(i.e. SuSE and Redhat) or even across multiple vendor versions(i.e. RH9.0 rpm --> RH7.2). Who's fault is this: packager and rpmbuild for making package building too damn easy.
Moving that way (Score:5, Interesting)
The real influx of Linux is due to the hiring of university students. Push Linux in the schools, and it'll end up in businesses and the gov.
Mod parent up.... (Score:4, Insightful)
Create a pool of Linux trained students, and they won't need 'conversion' to handle it in their workplace.
it still isnt gonna go mainstream (Score:4, Insightful)
its been said before, and i'll say it again, until my mom and dad can run linux without calling me every day, and they can just install something or simply copy and paste from one app in X to another, linux is just gonna stay a hobbist/server OS.
sorry to say it, but its true, dont give me the "its more stable, its more secure" stuff, you're preaching to the choir here, especiallly at slashdot.
Linux isn't going anywhere for awhile, im sorry, you just have to deal with it.
Re:it still isnt gonna go mainstream (Score:2)
Re:it still isnt gonna go mainstream (Score:2)
I use SuSE 8.2 for work because I "ssh -X" to a shared parallel computer and having multiple desktops is almost necessary with all the windows I have open. Windows cannot touch linux in terms of usability for me.
but the only things I have installed apart from what's on the DVD's and internet updates are Firebird and Thunderbird. I can just unzip them and run. I haven't been able to update or install any programs manually because of all kinds of libraries and development packages being needed too. t
Re:it still isnt gonna go mainstream (Score:2)
Bzzz.. wrong. It's true that Linux/OSS isn't quite ready to become the standard home desktop OS, but for mid-size/corporate business desktops, it's an entirely different story. Fact is, IT staff can very easily deal with administering Linux boxes even if your pa
Re:it still isnt gonna go mainstream (Score:2)
I think it'll take corporate backing to really push Linux into the desktop and the community probably won't be happy writing tons of GUIs for everything that can easily be done on the command line because Joe-Sixpack doesnt or can't learn all those arcane command
US Gov't Agency Linux Desktops? (Score:3, Interesting)
Not with Homeland Security showing how absolutely retarded they insist on being and going with WinXX. This is clearly not a security based decision, and any "significant" attempt to go counter to it will bring the HLS pseudo-spooks down by the thousands to protect their investments ^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H The Nation.
michael sez: 'Depending on how you define "significant", this has already occurred.'
Pray tell, what agency might that be? In my years inside the beltway (up through less than 2 months ago) I didn't see any with any appreciable (let's define that as, say 5%) Linux desktops on desks. All I've seen, besides individuals setting up their own for number crunching, is piles and miles of MS systems "supported" by clue-deficient federal employess constantly in fear of replacement by contractors for extremely good reasons. Even NIH was mostly MS on the desks, and what wasn't was Macs. The necessarily more powerful research machines we used were often *nix, but these were not desktop machines.
Offering a secured version of Linux for D/L is not the same as an agency's internal deployment of same.
Two things that need to happen in 2004 (Score:3, Insightful)
Second the linux desktop has to surpass Windows XP in usability. They have the time to get this done. Longhorn is a long way off. Personally it would be nice to see some INNOVATIVE navigation ideas thrown around in the mainstream such as unified hotkey standards, radial pie menu in the window manager, and/or mouse gestures for launching commonly used applications (gesture down to open web browser, up for email) and common commands (down+left for copy, up+left for paste, for example). Maybe even mousewheel based window navigation instead of alt+tab.
Granted these things can be done now but not without some footwork. These need to be integrated into a "desktop" linux distribution like Lindows, Lycoris, or XandrOS. Somebody just needs to put them together.
Frequent tasks should require less keystrokes or mouse movement to accomplish. It isn't enough for it to be intuitive on where you should start to look for the document that tells you which clock does what. Less applications. Faster access and faster results.
Re:Two things that need to happen in 2004 (Score:2, Insightful)
Unfortunately there's very little you can innovate with unless you're the one dominating the desktop markets.
A novel navigation idea in Windows: People get annoyed but get over it because they have to.
A novel navigation idea in Linux: People get annoyed ("it doesn't work the same way I'm used to") and give up.
You have it backwards (Score:2)
Microsoft's 'innovations' to the XP GUI weren't for innovation
Re:Two things that need to happen in 2004 (Score:3, Interesting)
As for usability,
In 2004 when I say... (Score:5, Funny)
The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now (Score:3, Interesting)
If I have Larry Bird's championship Celtics teams on one side, and on the other I request anyone that wants to play show up... Even if Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Karl Malone and Tray McGrady show up, chances are that Bird's team is going to win because they are the well-organized, focused and experienced TEAM. They know how to work together effe
Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now (Score:3, Interesting)
Of course, in real life there isn't an arbitrary 5 man limit to your team. The championship Celtics were good, but they couldn't take on the best of the NBA greats all at the same time. Heck, they couldn't even compete with high school players if the opposing team had 500 guys on the court at the same time.
Microsoft has gotten to the point where they are competing with a huge percentage of their Windows developers. What's worse, if you come up with software that works well on Windows and starts making
Always "a couple years away" (Score:5, Interesting)
In 1998, I was swearing up and down that by the beginning of 2000, some major PC manufacturer would be selling Linux-preloaded systems branded for comsumers in places like CompUSA. That obviously didn't happen.
For most of the last four years, I've been predicting that by the beginning of 2005, most people would be using open source operating systems (keeping in mind that that could be Windows, if Microsoft caught a clue in time). Doesn't look like that's going to happen.
Now it's looking to me like the first half of 2006 is when Linux use on the consumer desktop will move from the "early adopter" to the "early majority" phase. I say this because:
* It's virtually guaranteed that we'll have several more major deployments in 2004 and 2005. These might be specialized applications instead of general desktop, but that will help create demand for more general applications.
* If you read the "Roadmap to desktop Linux" posted earlier today, it's clear that several very cool and useful features will be coming to the Free desktop in the next couple years.
* OpenOffice.org 2.0 should be released in the first half of 2005, and it is planned to make development of add-ons much easier. This will hopefully help get more office-oriented vertical applications ported to OOo.
When all this happens over the next couple years, I believe desktop Linux will turn from a stream to an avalanche.
But still, we need consumer pre-loads with all hardware configured to work out of the box, and marketed well. Few people are going to buy a Windows-infested PC, then choose to replace Windows with Linux. This is probably the most iffy condition, but I think it will happen. Most PC manufacturers would do anything to break away from MSFT.
Re:Always "a couple years away" (Score:5, Interesting)
Depends on who you are looking at. For me and about 2/3 of my colleagues, Linux on the desktop has already happened several years ago. I, being a consultant, am running Suse Linux on my laptop, on my business desktop, and on all machines at home.
I own a copy of VMware, but reviewing my usage of it, I only use it with Win98 to program my PBX at home, and most of the time with Linux to simulate certain customer configurations and experiment with RAID and cluster setups. All office work, including text processing, presentation and calculation is being done on Linux natively, as is web browsing, other internet work, and of couse all security work.
Kristian
Re:Always "a couple years away" (Score:3, Insightful)
A famous quote comes to mind:
personally, i hope they can look at Desktop Linux (Score:2)
For linux, I wait about 10 seconds at a minimum. I understand there is a 800mhz difference between the two processors,
While we're in punditry mode ... (Score:2, Insightful)
When, if ever, will there be a clear "winner" between Gnome and KDE for the average desktop?
When Linux takes over the desktop in a few years, will either one of them be the de-facto standard that nearly everyone uses?
Right now there's so much mindshare and development commitment in both, and it's hard to see when that will change. But I don't think it will last forever. Eventually one will have to give. Which one and how long will it take?
This is the year that Open Source will FINALLY (Score:4, Funny)
With the DMCA, etc in place, and the current state of soft-ware patents in europe, I think it's safe to say that in 2005, the only ones who'll be left using GNU software will be outlaws.
The Future Fair... (Score:5, Informative)
Out of nowhere will come the killer office app that integrates word processing, spreadsheets and databases so they really interoperate nicely. (Think Improv, Access, and some quasi-wysiwyg word processor that works on xml schemas all bred together by a Christopher Lloyd as Dr. Brown and then make "easy" enough for the masses. Maybe even constraint propagation as the spreadsheet engine.)
A personal information manager will surface that enables us all to keep track of mail, favorite websites, IM buddylists, newsgroups and all that ephemeral, necessary information that clogs our bits and our neurons. (Ideally it will integrate with the above.)
Linux will finally have a sound system that works and without it being a pain to deal with.
A way to build and install kernels and modules that requires less than serious geekery to get to work.
Package management will mature enough that we wont have to chase dependencies manually, and so that packages will install cleanly.
A good dictation package.
A linux based PDA about the size of a paperback with handwriting recognition and (of course) all of the above.
Hey, I can dream, can't I?
Linux in 2004 (Score:4, Funny)
Oh no wait - Windows has to do all this first.
My hopes for 2004 - some realisation please (Score:5, Insightful)
- A desktop offering hardware acceleration, scaling, blending, composition effects. There are promising extensions for X for this and they should be leapt on. But if means ditching X / a WM then so be it - QT / GTK are meant to be abstraction layers after all and X can run rootless on top of whatever-it-is if need be.
- A desktop where KDE / GNOME / dist homegrown tools are blended into a single cohesive entity. Not one with a generic KDE / GNOME slapped together with some weird tools (i.e. Mandrake). The desktop will be referred to as "the desktop" in all dialogs / apps and not KDE / GNOME / Drak / Yast etc. except in advanced documentation.
- A unified help system - one that offers one stop access to all man pages, info, html, READMEs, GNOME / KDE / dist help, all ordered in a task centric way with full search facilities.
- A desktop that offers to install additional apps (especially DVD, MP3 player etc.) in a user friendly manner click N run style during installation and at any time after. Even if there are legal reasons for not shipping MP3 on the CDs for example, the dist could still make it easy to find them remotely.
- A unified distribution neutral driver model with detection, installation / removal architecture. The situation at the moment with
getting a driver (or the hell of writing and supporting one) on Linux is a joke. Even a popular driver like NVidia involves screwing around at the command prompt and having a toolchain and kernel source if your dist is not directly supported.
- A unified theme engine. A single engine that any app, toolkit or WM can use to render buttons and decorations.
- Identification of every day operations and a UI to support them completely with no overlapping functionality. There should be no need for mere mortals to drop to the shell. Not even once. If OS X users can control a BSD derivative with a (single button) mouse then so can Linux. It doesn't mean Linux must be 'dumbed down', just that needless complication should be identified and removed / hidden from those who don't want to see it.
And most importantly:Re:My hopes for 2004 - some realisation please (Score:3, Insightful)
Perhaps that is because for most of us, the goal isn't to replace Windows with Linux. It is to replace "legacy" Unix with Linux. Microsoft isn't even on the radar for 90% or more of the people actually developing and providing the Linux kernel, tools and other applications.
Beg to differ, my own predictions: (Score:5, Insightful)
Conventional, but probably true answer: servers. There are still many companies running standard services like mail, web etc. on proprietary operating systems (Sun, Microsoft) in a time where it makes no whatsoever sense anymore. With kernel 2.6, Linux will gain acceptance as a high-end Unix replacement and be deployed wherever older server installations need to be replaced.
No. The desktop UI is still too inconsistent across KDE/Qt, Gnome/GTK, Mozilla/XUL and Openoffice and still offers no viable alternative to the commandline when it comes to system administration/configuration.
I predict that in 2004, attention will move away from KDE and Gnome as all-in-one-solutions. Instead, it will be finally accepted as reality among developers and users that different GUI APIs will continue to coexist, and that efforts should be made to standardize the protocols and user interfaces across the APIs. For the future of GNU/Linux and *BSD on the desktop, freedesktop.org will be much more important than kde.org and gnome.org, but it could take five-ten years until the difference between a KDE/Qt, GTK/Gnome, Tcl/Tk, Fltk program will be as irrelevant to users as the difference between a Carbon and a Cocoa app on MacOS X or as that between a Microsoft MFC program written in C++ or an OWL-based program written in Borland Delphi for a Windows user.
Once this level of standardization is reached, the importance of all-in-one desktops like KDE and Gnome could dramatically decrease, since users instead could combine components like taskbars, window managers, file managers and system menus at will. (Which, thanks to freedesktop.org, is already possible: fspanel / fbpanel / suxpanel / the xfce4 panel can be used as drop-in replacements for the Gnome panel, rox / xffm4 as drop-in replacements for Nautlius, and the list of freedesktop.org-compliant window managers suitable as replacements of metacity / kwin is endless.)
However, it will take yet another five years until 2013 or 2014 that a standardized Unix/GNU/Linux/BSD desktop will allow developers of system components (like sendmail/exim/Postfix/qmail, lpr/cups, Samba, Grub/Lilo...) to write GUI configuration panels for their own software. At the moment, desktop projects like KDE, Gnome/Ximian and Webmin can only provide insufficient configuration wrappers around low-level system tool; the only sane solution is that such GUI configuration panels are provided by the original component developers in sync with their release schedules, and will work consistently on any GUI configuration (as opposed to the present situation where a configuration panel would have to be provided in separate versions for KDE, Gnome, XFCE, webmin and what-have-you). Only at this point, GNU/Linux will be able to replace commercial end-user GUI operating systems on a large scale and be accessible to home users.
Contrary to what Eric S. Raymond says: The unclear situations of RedHat/Fedora and SuSE (after it has been bought by Novell) could create a strong push towards Debian as the standard binary (GNU/)Linux distribution. The Debian core distribution could become a de-facto-replacement of the disappointing "Linux Standards Base (LSB)", as more and more (commercial and community) distributions will be based Debian. Knoppix, Lindows and, in the near future, User Linux are prime examples. Debian itself will gain more acceptance in the mainstream and among new users as soon as it will ship with the new installer.
Given the record of Netscape/Mozilla's, StarOffice/OpenOffice's and Apple Darwin's transformation of corporate into public development projects, I doubt that RedHat/Fedora will ever become a true community project. It is also being overlooked that the equation RedHat=Linux is specific to the U.S. only
I predict...some of *you* will start using Linux (Score:4, Informative)
In 2004, that trend will increase. If you've got a laptop, why not put Linux on it all by itself?
OK, some of you have your reasons, though making the jump and dealing with the problems (if any) is one way to get the ball rolling. Here are two resources to help out;
Government Software for Linux (Score:3, Informative)
Relevent URLs:
http://www.disa.mil/coe/kpc/linuxpc.html [disa.mil]
http://gforge.freestandards.org/projects/qp-coe [freestandards.org]
http://www.opengroup.org/openbrand/coe [opengroup.org]
http://opencoe.sourceforge.net [sourceforge.net]
Re:Linux PDAs (Score:2)
I really hope this isn't a troll. If so, sorry for feeding. Google for Linux PDA [google.com]
There was a company that made one called the VX3 IIRC. And, of course, there's the Sharp Zaurus. I also think that you can get Linux to run on the ARM based PDAs, such as the iPAQ, HP Jordana, etc.
Re:My God... (Score:3, Funny)
I was hoping that thw world's best kept fucking secret would be something that involved sex. Perhaps in 2004 it will.
Re:Do yah really think it makes a difference? (Score:2)
Re:Do yah really think it makes a difference? (Score:2)
Re:Do yah really think it makes a difference? (Score:2)
-- PhoneBoy