The Near-Term Future Of Open Source Desktops 243
securitas writes "eWEEK has two related articles on the growth of open source software. The first article is about the growth of desktop Linux, featuring Lotus and the Open Source Applications Foundation (OSAF) founder Mitch Kapor, who says (among other things) that call centers will be where the next wave of growth for desktop Linux happens and that 10 percent of global desktops will be Linux in a few years. He bases his statements on a report by Eazel and GNOME Foundation co-founder Bart Decrem entitled 'Desktop Linux Technology and Market Overview' (PDF) mentioned last week. The second story is about open source software growth in the government sector where government agencies like the U.S. Census Bureau have embraced OS software for projects like the State and County QuickFacts site. Based on Perl, Apache, MySQL and Linux, the site gets 200,000 page views a day."
Linux is cheap (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2, Insightful)
These sorts of desktops run the risk of establishing Linux as the grunt-worker ghetto desktop.
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2, Insightful)
We have Mozilla(renamed to netscape for people here who don't know what Mozilla is) A telnet client (for business purposes only) and a text editor. Very stripped down, But Very efficient.
We are still trying to phase out the old windows mach
Thin Clients (Score:3, Informative)
The ones I've been playing with are from neoware [neoware.com]. Flash based OS and everything either X or Citrix off a central server. This is the sort of thing that call centres are actually using now, along with some fairly large industrial corps like Lockheed Martin (who I have to deal with).
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2)
S
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2)
We know that 2.6 testing has just begun [slashdot.org].
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2)
Re:Linux is cheap (Score:2)
My two cents...... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:My two cents...... (Score:5, Funny)
Windows as an optional "extra"... (Score:2)
Re:Windows as an optional "extra"... (Score:2)
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2, Funny)
Linux is a success on the desktop when it has a secure, decent-sized desktop userbase. Expecting a majority is both unreasonable and silly (see the kid example for why it's silly).
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2)
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2)
Once they start giving cornflakes away with milk then I'll consider cornflakes a success.
Re:My two cents...... (Score:3, Informative)
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2)
The problem is Internet connectivity. (Score:2)
What cripples Linux is that major Internet-Service Providers (ISPs) like AOL do not provide a Linux client through which you can dialup a connection to AOL. Hence, the average consumer will reject a Linux desktop because she simply cannot get e-mail.
It's really that simple. Once all the ISPs provide a dialup client on Linux, then Linux will make a major dent into the desktop market.
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2)
Once Linux is the main OS sold with new computers ... then I'll regard it as a success
When Linux is an OPTION for a cheap desktop PC direct from Dell, it'll be a success. Why should a small company (who could really use the cost savings) use Linux when just about every major retailer only sells PCs with Windows already installed.
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:My two cents...... (Score:2, Interesting)
yes (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:yes (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:yes (Score:2, Interesting)
Yup, here we have quite a few machines -- with NT and Office 2000 courtesy of "The Foundation." The place offers free basic computer literacy classes and all of the promo flyers have "made possible by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation"
I suppose it's nice when the library couldn't have sprung for neither hardware nor software on their own...but the machines are aging and NT support is going bye-bye. Will there be an eventual "forced" upgrade to XP? On these machines? Ha!
Y
Re:yes (Score:2)
Libraries AFAIK have a budget for buying new books - but not computers..... they'd have to apply to somewhere for the money for computers (or have them donated - as in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation).
Re:yes (Score:2)
If the machine is going to be used in any kind of "corporate" system most likely the very first thing which will happen is that the OEM install will be wiped.
This covers the vast majority of computers.
The corner of the revolution ... (Score:4, Insightful)
In a few years. We know the revolution is just round the corner. But how many corners do we have to revolve around?
Linux Revolution 2007 (Score:3, Informative)
Mitch Kapor says it will be around 2007 it right in the article:
Re:Linux Revolution 2007 (Score:3, Insightful)
It can't be *that* lacking, since Munich is switching 14,000 desktops whole-hog to Linux.
Personally, I find "10% market share in a few years" to be extremely pessimistic. If it has less than 30% share by, say, 2008, I'll be very disappointed.
And I think that will happen. Once you get the critical mass, there will be virtually NO reason for ANYONE to stick with Windows, except for pure legacy apps.
Re:The corner of the revolution ... (Score:3, Interesting)
Personally, I know I was going to migrate over right before win2k came out. Then win2k came out and fixed many of the problems I had with previous versions [making the reasons for migration moot]. Now Linux [and OS-X too] is back to a point where they are looking desirable again.
Desirable? (Score:5, Interesting)
Honestly, I haven't seen the latter happen, and this is from someone who runs only Linux on his home computer and, when a new game comes out, waits a few months for a Native or Wine-based port.
From everything I've seen, XP is better than 2K if only it weren't for the licensing bullshit. A strategy to defeat Windows (and this assumes there is a think-tank working to defeat Windows, and I don't think this really exists) would have to involve licensing, and right now Microsoft is vulnerable. Linux is better because it's open, and free. Period. Don't make technical arguments, make licensing arguments.
Q: "Is Linux better than Windows?"
A: "Yes, but in ways that you'd have to be a sysadmin to really understand. In other ways, it's worse. There are defintely going to be tradeoffs, and you'll take some time getting on your feet again."
Q: "Then why should I switch?"
A: "Because technology freedom is more important than technology, in ways that matter to everyone, not just programmers and not just budget controllers. Everything in your computer should belong to you."
People are responsive to this kind of argument, but it has to be presented honestly.
Re:Desirable? (Score:2)
Linux has gotten better, and alot of my problems in that regard have been fixed [better browser support, better apps, better install/packaging/hardware support]. Now that I've learned more [regexes mainly] many of the Linux apps are more appealing.
Win2k hasn't really gotten better. Like you said, the licensing is unacceptable to me, even if XP added anything worthwhile. Windows software [other than games] haven't really increased at a pace to distance them
A more appropiate headline ........ (Score:2)
Re:The corner of the revolution ... (Score:5, Interesting)
Is this boiled-frog syndrome?
Perversely, I think maybe we're getting so used to the gradual flow of success stories that we're losing sight of just how far Linux has come in the last few years. Five years ago, the notion that governments and corporations would be rolling out Linux desktop deployments numbering into five figures would have been comical to even the most rabid zealot. Now it's almost commonplace. The rate of acceptance has been phenomenal. Five years from now I'd certainly expect OSS OSes to make up more than 10% of worldwide installs, and at that point it's a done deal - the operating system will be a commodity, and the closed-source vendors will be either giving their OS away to support app or service revenue, or actually having to work for a living.
Re:The corner of the revolution ... (Score:2)
Re:The corner of the revolution ... (Score:2)
Only 200,000? ) (Score:2, Funny)
That's really cool... but in a different way. It makes me feel really proud of my Python, Apache, MySQL and (Linux|NetBSD) site (two locations) that gets 400,000 pageviews a day!
Re:Only 200,000? ) (Score:2)
Re:Only 200,000? ) (Score:2)
I have Linux, LVS, Heartbeat, apache, php, mysql, bind etc etc @ just under 20,000,000 page views a day. (no not a typo 20 million)
And btw it's a site that nobody has heard of.. (well besides our customers)
P.S. what is the url of you site?
When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:2, Interesting)
MySQL has a corporation directly backing it, and thus has a bigger marketing budget / wider public exposure than the PostgreSQL project.
Consider this a business school case study on why marketing matters, even in tech fields.
Open source less vulnerable to marketing factors (Score:2)
Does this mean that PostgreSQL is doomed to the same fate as Betamax
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:2)
Why is MySQL popular... because it's light, and Postgres is bloated if you compare them in a sense of DB backend support needed to run a dynamic web site.
Could it also be due to the "hard as hell to install" f
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:3, Insightful)
MySQL installation: Grab the RPM's, rpm -Uvh *, or use InstallShield on Windows. That's it. There is nothing else to set up, there isn't even a default password anymore when connecting from localhost. It's literally a 2 minute process.
Contrast this with PostgreSQL where you got to bootstra
Re:When will MySQL Grow up? (Score:2)
To paraphrase, then, the PostgreSQL packages for your OS don't automatically set up the databases and put vacuum in a cron job, but the MySQL packages do all of the relevant setup. I wonder if an email to your distributor's bug tracking system might be in order...
LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:3, Insightful)
LINUX makes sense for the corporate IT infrastructure. The UNIX of old is expensive, and Windows is buggy and (also) expensive. As long as people can get sub-$600 PCs running Windows ME, they will buy them because they simply don't care. And their job and their life has nothing to do with computers other than that everything happens to need computers today. The end all is "If ain't broke, don't fix it." My computer checks my email. And lets me read slashdot.
Re:LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:2, Insightful)
In 3 years time, you'll be asked to sign up again. Instead you could get everyone onto Linux, Open Office and Mozilla which would do the job (and in 2 years, OOo will probably be fantastic).
The other users, home users just ain't upgrading. They can do their email, browsing and send letters. Why do they need a 2.4
Re:LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:2)
The biggest issue is that with IT budgets being cut and money for training and general expenditures becoming slim to none, it's really hard to sell Linux. Sure, the long-term costs are cheaper in most instances, but in the short term, the money just isn't in the budget and the shareholders don't want to hear "well, this will
Re:LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:3, Insightful)
For me I think anything above 20% is just icing on the cake. Once Linux gets 20% desktop penetration the hardware vendors and the boneheaded web designers will not be afford to code just to the microsoft products.
Re:LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:2)
Re:LINUX, Windows, UNIX, OS/2 it Doesn't Matter. (Score:2)
No it's not but neither is it impossible.
"But the a large issue with LINUX is that it's hard to get away selling non-open source software on LINUX. "
Is it? Why? Oracle runs on linux, websphere runs on linux, DB/2 runs on linux, just about any major enterprise software be it SAP, Sybase, peoplesoft etc all run on linux. They are also all closed source and are very expensive.
"Developers won't be able to afford to ignore 20% of the users IF LINUX gets there, but they also won't be
Depends (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Depends (Score:2, Insightful)
If you've just dropped huge money on a commercial package (which may be Windows-centric), an office full of Windows licenses may seem reasonable in comparison.
Call Centres without Office (Score:3, Interesting)
One that I helped set up had a series of applications talking to a printing package which central templates had been defined in.
People just entered the action on a screen, and the server sent a request to the printing package which printed a letter on a central printer.
All the applications ran through a browser. That company could move the call centre desktops to Linux very easily.
Re:Depends (Score:2, Interesting)
You're confusing "customer support" with debugging. The first round of customer support only records the symptoms of the problem into a database and offers some known solutions (make sure X is installed, reboot your computer, powercycle your cable modem, etc). Only when all else fails do they try to reproduce your problem on an in-house syste
Re:Depends (Score:3, Insightful)
they have a list of problems and resolutions
What About Corporate Standards? (Score:2, Insightful)
Except for today... (Score:4, Interesting)
Except for today, when we line it up for a good Slashdotting.
To be more on topic, I wonder how much of this is chosen by the PHBs ("I've heard a lot about this Linux, maybe we should use it for this next big project.") and how much is chosen by the admins without PHB approval ("Well, we need this project up on a server, and we have this old PII-400 laying around, let's just throw Linux on it, fire up Apache and mod_perl and then take an early lunch."). I know that when I was in the Air Force, I saw the latter happen much more often than the former.
Re:Except for today... (Score:2, Informative)
Let's say also that you have an urgent need for a solution. Do you go through all the hoops of purchasing a WinXP server with SQL Server (including internal purchasing), or download Apache/PHP/MySQL and get coding? Particularly if it is a short term, internal low-risk solution.
10% of the desktop!? (Score:3, Funny)
Same old discussion... (Score:4, Interesting)
I think that GNU/Linux in many ways are equal to or better than MS Windows considering apps. A recent GNOME or KDE provides a great working environment with good browsers, email apps, etc. etc.
A problem for GNU/Linux _from a joe user standpoint_ is the inherent security and multi-user nature of UNIX-like OS's. Windows has a history of insecurity, but that also means no hassle with passwords and the like.
This "hassle" and inherent security are of course Right Things, but Joe User just thinks it's annoying.
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:4, Interesting)
I upgrade hardware and reinstall/update OSs for friends all the time, and I always ask myself whether I could honestly recommend Linux for their desktops. At this point in time, I can't. And there's one major reason: the lack of a distribution-independent and *easy* (read GUI) method of installing and updating third party software. There are other reasons (immature GUIs for some distros and possible lack of some apps and hardware drivers) but this is the big one IMO.
Yes, I'm aware of the wonders of apt-get and synaptic and I know many distributions have very easy ways of keeping your core system current, but that's not really the issue. Central repositories for OS updates make sense, but expecting your distro to 'repackage' every piece of third-party software out there is extremely inefficient (and impossible anyway!).
Given the way Linux is developed and the whole idea of 'dependencies', I don't really know what a soultion to this problem would look like. Maybe one or two distros will dominate all the others and allow third-party developers to standardize on them, but of course you'd lose the diversity or bazaar-style develpoment which is one of Linux's strengths. If anyone else has ideas, or knows what direction Linux developers are taking on this, I'd be curious to know
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:2)
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:2)
In theory, the Linux Standard Base (LSB) should fix this problem: a package (RPM, which is the standard of commercial distro ) built against the LSB should be installable on any of the distributions that claim to be LSB-compliant (and all the recent distributions claim this).
I use Debian and do not oftten need commercial software, so I don't know how well it work
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:2)
My point is simple. Forget money, forget porting, and forget market share. Go to Mozilla.org. There's a single binary release for Win32 that'll work on every version of Windows released in the past 8 years. It installs by double clicking it. Where's the Linux equivalent?! I'm sorry, but the tarball is not an acceptable alternative for the average user.
You think Mozilla is unique? Go to OpenOffice.org, another premiere FOSS application, and compare the install proce
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:2)
In a great many situations end user installable software is a very bad thing.
The car equivalent would be the ability to exchange bits of the engine using th
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:Same old discussion... (Score:4, Interesting)
Mandrake asks you if you want this during the install.
A novice Linux user (but long time programmer) asked me if I had Mandrake install disks last week, he wasn't happy with RedHat 9.0 and our sysAdmin had told him to ask me about Mandrake. I stopped by his office later in the week because he hadn't come back to me with questions, which is unusual with someone's first install, especially on a laptop. He simply hadn't had any problems.
Not that it's completely ready, I gave the same Mandrake CD's to a business person six months ago and got like 10 e-mails mostly about games and OpenOffice. He had even switched to OpenOffice on Windows earlier, but there are things like fonts and e-mail integration that are different. I learned that OpenOffice doesn't use fontconfig yet.. Mandrake has a font importer that handles non-standard applications, but if you don't use that tool you can end up with fonts that are only present in a subset of your applications, this is very confusing to non-technical people. (Many things that we take for granted are very confusing to the non-technical, try explaining the difference between a client and server to a non-technical person.) Strangely the business guy wanted the login screen because he saw security as the major reason for switching, I had told him that anyone with physical access could get to his data anyway, but he still wanted the login.
The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:5, Interesting)
It would be great to get a serious effort to send "old" (meaning 200MHz and up) computers to third world countries, loaded with open source operating systems. Macs, PCs, whatever. The problem is that to send them all there would cost more than to just buy new ones from a local manufacturing plant :P Maybe we could load up a few shipping containers, weld 'em shut, and just drop them in the ocean. The countries where they wash up get the computers.
Re:The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:2)
What a silly idea! Cheap things don't sell! Load something with sufficient buzzwords, make it new and shiny, get several sites to drool over it and swim in money! Businesses are out there to make profit, not to make cheap PCs. E
Re:The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:2)
Apparently you haven't been keeping up with slashdot [slashdot.org] lately.
Re:The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:2)
I'm partly guessing, but don't be too surprised if it were to turn out that US$50 could feed and clothe someone for six months in many developing countries.
Developing countries often have a much lower cost of living and peo
Re:The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:2)
Really and honestly, the biggest problem in getting donated computers to people is, well, getting them to people. Transportation. The cost of running around and picking up all the PCs is tremendous if you're goi
Re:The war will not be won in the US of A (Score:2)
Seriously, we have a little box at work that measures about 4x4x2 inches and supports web browsing (including flash, etc). I'm not sure how much it costs, but if something like it were produced in enough numbers, $50 would not be inconceivable.
Unfortunately, we are experiencing a hurricane atm, so I'm not at work and can't find out what kind of box it is.
I just don't understand. (Score:2)
Why did they bother upgrading? Even 2000 server can handle that.
Re:I just don't understand. (Score:2)
Yeah, you can run Apache and MySQL on Windows 2000, but you forgot Microsoft no longer patches and supports Windows 2000. If you were to run a web service off of Windows 2000, then you're asking for trouble.
Besides Linux + MySQL +Apache can scale a lot better, and has less over head and it's can do more with the same resources finacially and maintence wise. You really want to start down the Microsoft Lincese Plan to hell?
Microsoft might as well stop patching and supporting their current server operating
Them Open Sourcers (Score:2, Interesting)
ain't they codin' warriors.
Writing under licenses,
coded by they lawyers.
Some code on a payroll,
but usually it's free.
BSD to GPL,
they code for all to see.
Them happy slappy Open Sourcers,
they rights shall not be lost.
Keeping libs bug free because
you just can't beat the cost.
How to be an Open Sourcer,
there's no hidden catch.
Find an open project,
'n submit an open patch.
Call Centers.. (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Call Centers.. (Score:4, Informative)
Sun will maintain ownership of the hardware (5u|\| 0w|\|z J00 d00d!), and customers will pay a per-seat monthly/ quarterly/ whatever fee. Something breaks, field service will just yank the box and drop in a new one, run the kickstart script to build the machine to latest versions from a backend server. I think there was some talk of a "self sparing" option so that the company could keep a couple of "idle" boxes on the network to drop one in themselves if needed.
Re:Call Centers.. (Score:2)
The call center market has matured - it's not past it's prime unless you are looking for easy $$$. The days of going in and selling $7.5 Mil of crappy CRM/Call Center software and ridiculous ammounts of unneeded hardware are over. Now that the market has reached saturation, buyers become more savvy and vendors have to become more useful.
Call Center managers and owners have their metrics down to a science and increasingly benefit from custom applications. Why? call c
Kinda sad that Linux is the only other option (Score:5, Interesting)
Windows has its share of troubles. The idealistic among us don't like Microsoft's market domination. The security-minded don't like the multitude of holes. But take both of those out of the picture, and you end up with a simple question: Is the Linux desktop experience, including applications, really significantly better than Windows in some quantifiable ways? In my personal experience, the OSS desktop environment developers have been playing a game of catch up with Microsoft. Sure, Microsoft didn't invent the GUI. We all know that. But it's not like Linux + KDE|GNOME is so much stunningly better than Windows that there's a reason to jump ship to it. At the same time, realize that there are many, many happy Windows users *and* developers. The anti-Microsoft angst is largely from a certain crowd. The end result is that this issue is largely a muddle. If you paint it to be a clear-cut battle, then it's not representative of reality.
Choice is good, yes, but realize that this choice already exists. Is beating Microsoft and getting everyone to use the Linux kernel a win for choice?
Needs more pushing in schools (Score:3, Informative)
If they would just switch to Linux and run one of the "lighter" (e.g. not KDE 3) desktop managers, they would get much better performance and save a fortune on software licenses.
On an annoying note, today a 400Mhz dual processor system was tossed onto the charity pile. I want it. It would be a great replacement for my aging server, but they not only do not have a system for anyone to purchase old equipment, they actively discourage people from asking! That's just plain stupid. The school that ends up with that box probably won't even know what it is and will deploy it as all the others - with win98! ARRRRGGGHHH!
Re:Needs more pushing in schools (Score:2)
Re:Needs more pushing in schools (Score:2)
Re:Needs more pushing in schools -- Can work! (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Needs more pushing in schools (Score:2)
You need to take a few things into account.
Some schools bring in contractors for the real tech work, and have maybe ONE person that knows what they are doing and use students for anything else. Now the last time I checked, a Windows tech was a lot cheaper than someone with Linux (or unix) skills.
Most of the students, and more importantly teachers, will be coming in more familiar with Windows than Linux.
Schools and charities can get heavily discounted or donated software.
Take a look at the help want
Re:Needs more pushing in schools (Score:2)
Re:Needs more pushing in schools (Score:2)
Unfortunately, I can't steal it. It goes against my ethics. Besides, I would almost surely get caught since I would have to carry out a computer past several dozen people through two or three security doors. And no, I can't wait until after hours. I'm not authorized to work overtime and my security badge won't open the doors after a certain time (and it's needed to exit the building, too).
I love news like this (Score:4, Funny)
These are exactly where my job experience is. If only every website would standardize on this, I'd be employed forever.
Going about this in the wrong way I think.... (Score:5, Insightful)
For Linux to succeed on the desktop, I think two things need to happen... somebody like HP, IBM, or Dell needs to step up and sell systems that are pre-configured so that people don't have to mess with them. Just turn them on and away they go.
Secondly, its the DOCUMENTS. The world needs to start using something other than
The only reason MS has a stranglehold on the desktop is because people have been convinced they need to use those formats. Everytime I turn around I see a website or some CD that is forcing people to use these documents.
The next time you are creating a document or file format.... even if its using Windows... force yourself to use
If anyone sends me a proprietary document format, I ask them to please re-save it in a format that I can use and send it again. Nobody has ever refused yet.
Just a thought,
-Kevin
IP Telephony (Score:5, Interesting)
What Linux needs as a killer-app in this environment is good VoIP support. By good, I mean cheaper than Windows.
Specifically, I'm thinking it would be feasible to add software echo-cancellation to some of the sound card drivers or as a separate module. That would easily shave another $50 off the price of a typical call center desktop, and probably more than that with the way people tend to break their $100 headsets.
Does anyone know if this is possible?
Repeat after me.... (Score:2)
2 more non-geeks using linux on the desktop (Score:4, Interesting)
I agree about call centers! (Score:2)
Funny (Score:2)
I thought I used KDE on the desktop. If you swap the linux kernel our from under that in favour of a BSD, Solaris, or heck, a Windows [sourceforge.net] kernel, how would I even tell?
What???? (Score:2, Insightful)
putting pressure on Microsoft Corp Is this guy nuts or what?
Nathan Hanks, managing director of technology for Continental Airlines Inc., said his concern is making sure that he can turn the Houston company's airplanes around as quickly as possible. As such, the open-source-community concept is not as appealing to him. When the SQL Slammer worm hit earlier this year, Microsoft responded immediately and addressed the issue. Its executives also visited him to discuss the matter.
U.S. Census Bureau Logo (Score:2)
Um. Anyone have any ideas why the logo has some letters highlighted and others just plain black text?
USCENSUSBUREAU
Just curious/paranoid.