Debunking Linux-Windows Market Share Myths 631
bc90021 writes "Nicholas Petreley has a great article over at LinuxWorld explaining why it seems that Windows has such a high market share when 40% of developers are focusing on Linux. From the summary: "There are dozens of reasons why people have underestimated how quickly Linux has been grabbing Windows' market share. Windows starts out with a false boost and maintains its illusory market share even as it gets replaced by Linux. In 2004, don't be surprised when Linux overtakes Windows to become the main focus for developers.""
Say what you want... (Score:5, Interesting)
Trying to be totally unbiased here, but all these stats are making me confused about the "truth".
Dave
Its all about Java and Linux (Score:5, Interesting)
The Java and Linux combination rocks and will give MS fits on the server side.
Difficult (Score:5, Interesting)
Good point. We have to stop comparing apples to oranges here, like describing windows market shares in terms of developper tastes
So we have to use a "generic" unit to compare them (like companies use man/hour or man/day to compare solutions). Of course, we have to find a "global denominator" to windows and linux to determine the unit to use.
This global denominator will be hard to find, and won't be very accurate IMHO if we do find it. Like benchmarks, such units are likely to be quite a moving target, especially if we want to compare different versions of the OS (like, say, NT 4 vs Linux 1.2 vs XP vs Linux 2.4.20).
So my point is : we can't do it. Like benchmarks, finding the proper unit to relatively descrimine one OS from another will never be a completed task on our list IMHO.
Be prepared to see the figures next year : Windows 60% market share, Linux 60% market share (ideally obtained when every windows install is cleared in favor of linux). Eww.
keyword (Score:5, Interesting)
Why not use UserAgent? (Score:4, Interesting)
For a website [buffalo.edu] that I manage, the numbers with this methodology are: 89% visitors running MSIE, and 93.91% visitors running Windows (and 3% running Macs, and 0.5% using Linux).
YMMV.
Windows troubles (Score:5, Interesting)
I'm all for linux in the enterprise and (for me) the home use, but I don't think the way to get linux into those places in the mainstream is to go around saying "Windows is better than Linux" and then stopping. The only way I see linux making strides further into to the server market is to just show people how it compares to other platforms on levels of cost, performance, and maintenance. It won't happen overnight, and it won't happen just because someone spouts off numbers that don't really mean anything - it will take time. But with the people doing the development on linux and linux apps, it will happen.
Just my $0.02....
--Joe
Wishful thinking (Score:5, Interesting)
I used to work in the telcom-business at a company with 120 employed (50 developers: C++/Unix/SUN), where four(!) used Linux at home. The reason for the others to have windows? Games - games - games- games - games...
Id Software and a few others have tried, but... And, Microsoft is working very hard to redirect any proto-Linux-users to MS; and when it comes to games, they still have a magnificent lead thanks to their DirectX efforts. That lead may even be reinforced by the XBox.
What a sad article (Score:1, Interesting)
I don't think so.. Linux has gotten a lot of good media coverage and that is more important than these made up numbers. As long as Linux has the feel-good factor market share will rise slowly. Why this sudden urge to beat Windows in 1 year time? If it will happen... it will happen, no need to pretend and make up silly articles like this.
FUD (Score:5, Interesting)
*BUT* folks, it is easy for Linux people to provide hard figures on the usage of Linux. If one person would care to write a small deamon that logs usage on a predictable basis and forwards this to a central location then everyone can see how Linux is doing. The package shouldn't expose a fixed ID. It should track how often Linux has been run on the machine in the last x days. It should track the distro. It should be VERY easy for every distro to adopt. Perhaps it should try to track the primary function of the machine (webserver/file server/etc). It should be under the control of the sysadmin. It should should not forward the information every time a user logs in/restart happens/whatever. Rather, it should do it every 1/1000 times (or whatever) and this should be used as a basis for a statistical calc on the number of Linux boxen ad the rate of growth.
Would anyone care to take up the challenge? Feel free to forward this to the mailing lists, perhaps someone there would like to prove a point.
Hard facts count. Marketing blurb doesn't.
About Linuxworld.com (Score:3, Interesting)
These are the same guys that hired Joe Barr to write for them. This guy is about as un-professional as they come.
Take a look at this article [linuxworld.com] on UT2003 for linux. The article itself was pretty bad, but look at the name calling tirade he goes on when people give negative feedback in the comments section.
I have my doubts about zeitgeist (Score:5, Interesting)
Proxies. Again, more linux users could be behind a proxy (a few hundred linux users at my univ go through a single proxy) than windows users
Third, some factors similar to those described in the article could be at work (linux more efficient ==> less linux servers for same job). Maybe linux users are more efficient googlers? I think this is unlikely, but still a possibiility.
Fourth, it doesn't agree with my webserver stats (i.e, counting the hits I get from google searches). Of course, my data set is quite small, but it can not cause a threefold difference (I get 3% linux, 5-6% Mac). Maybe its because the content I have is biased towards linux users, but on the whole it makes me think that some combination of the factors above may be at work in decreasing the perceived share of linux.
Re:Say what you want... (Score:5, Interesting)
Now, the interesting paragraph in the article should be held up for all to see:
This is not important in the server market. I would be surprised to see too many people buy servers pre-installed with Windows, only to re-install Linux. Major vendors already have Linux preinstall options. I think from a desktop perspective this paragraph is valid, but we must be cautious. Maybe some low end servers are really desktops that did come pre-installed with Windows, and then there's people like me who keep dual-boot on my workstation for the inevitable crazy formatted Word/Excel/PowerPoint document that I have to edit and reply without changing any of the crazy formatting. So we can take this minus one argument with a pinch of salt, but it's still an interesting one nonetheless.
Interesting statistics are out there though, but they're so well known... still, it's good to keep track. We are seeing big advances in web serving: Apache is now serving over 66% of active web sites (source: www.netcraft.com/survey/). This is overwhelmingly not Microsoft + Apache/Win32: of 11 million sites, only appx. 10 thousand are on an MS platform (source: www.netcraft.com/survey/). However, there will be a lot of people running not just GNU/Linux but also FreeBSD, Solaris, etc, and I can't find any data like that on Netcraft.
If you look at the graph over the last few months it would also seem to suggest that recently Apache has again gained market share against Microsoft platform standards like IIS and Commerce Server. Cool.
Now, as far as vendor evidence is concerned, IBM, Oracle and Dell have all featured Linux in advertising recently, and Linux is being used in high profile embedded apps like mobile handsets. This is excellent. Linux is being talked about more than ever, and I think it is the way forward for the IT industry in general. 2003 will be a good year for Linux, IMHO.
Hooray for GNU/Linux! and remember, the server market share is what really matters. Microsoft will dominate the desktop for some time to come, but I believe Linux will start to make inroads on the desktop market when kernel 2.6 comes out. I have just compiled 2.5.64 and I must say the X windows experience (I was running 2.4.18 before) is fantastic. Much smoother, and less jerky, with additional perks like better ALSA support, more hardware support for USB devices and of course Bluetooth and other things starting to happen nicely. The next commit to the kernel tree will be very interesting too. I'm keeping my eyes wide open and focused on Linux. I'm already making money converting sites from ASP/MSSQL to PHP/MySQL because hosting is much more expensive on Windows platforms and customers are feeling the pinch. They are ready to invest now, to save monthly outgoings, to weather 2003's rather bleak outlook.
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:5, Interesting)
Not to mention "its free, but you can buy it in CompUSA." Say what!? Nothing is free, and that just confused him, so I left him thinking he could buy it at CompUSA, but I got the hook up just in case
Also, windows has the correctness connundrum. People think any mistakes are their own and not the fault of windows, automatically... I think they would be more likely to blame Linux for any shortcomings. This means more phone calls to "yours truly."
non- traditional surveys (Score:3, Interesting)
All this tends to indicate to me that
Re:Why not use UserAgent? (Score:5, Interesting)
Ok, is Google popular enough?
Zeitgeist. [google.com]
For why this number may not be accurate, see above; boils down to 1) are you counting installations, including servers, or desktops in your evaluation? Servers naturally don't access google, but depending on the app that you're developing, a server install of Linux may or may not matter to you. 2) People forge their UA to defeat sniffers; I think less folks do that than you would think, but I think Linux users are more likely to than others.
btw, the stats show that 1% of browsers accessing Google were using Linux; 4% were using some version of a Mac; 4% were "other"--meaning what, I dunno. Are there that many Be/Amiga users out there?
Re:Its all about Java and Linux (Score:5, Interesting)
Not really. It is quite likely that an enterprise using Java does so to avoid the liability OS lock in. .net is not likely to provide that! Another reason to use Java is percieved security from the sandbox. MS doesn't have a very good reputation for security consciousness. They made a lot of noise about focusing on security, but so far, the trivial exploits just keep coming. Even assuming the MS was being sincere, they are still handicapped by their lack of experiance. More and more decision makers are coming to understand that one cannot just say 'today, I will be mindful of security' and magically, the next version is 'secure'.
Re:40% of developers?!? (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:2, Interesting)
what, I can dream can't I.
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:2, Interesting)
It has nothing to do with the fact(?) that India only has 0.5% of the Windows *user* base. The intention is that India will have 90%+ of the Windows *developer* base!
US and EU developers can't compete on cost terms. The same will applies to all platforms, not just Windows. You can get your product developed cheaper in India.
Whether you get a better product at the end of it is a moot point since CFOs rarely care about anything other than the bottom line.
Re:Its all about Java and Linux (Score:2, Interesting)
You reckon? From here (Telecoms) it looks like everyone has settled on Java (BEA, specifically). We're moving our core product away from Delphi/Oracle solutions to a Java/BEA platform.
Microsoft may pull in a few big fish with
Market Share != developers (Score:5, Interesting)
There are a disproportionate number of developers who work on Sun boxes relative to the number of Sun boxes in the whole computing market, for instance. That just means Sun machines are being used in situations where there is more custom development work going on, and in situations where companies need and can afford to pay for more people to maintain code. The proportion of Sun developers doesn't speak at all to the broader market share of Sun machines vis a vis Windows machines.
I always get a laugh when I see an article about the misuse and misinterpration of statistics, which trots out its own to-be-misused-and-interpreted statistics. What's that old saw about lies and damn lies ?
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:5, Interesting)
Assuming a conspiracy against Linux gives Microsoft WAY MORE credit than they deserve. Making sarcastic comments about Linux as an OS for hackers and pirates accomplishes nothing.
Start the battle on the premise that there are alternatives. Once people know about the alternatives, then the "Linux rulz" crowd is useful in spreading their cause. Right now, they have it backwards and Microsoft is firmly in control because of it.
who cares about auto developers? (Score:2, Interesting)
What is important is the reasons that more developers are flocking to Linux each day. Some just like to say because it is cheap and if that is their ownly perceived value of Linux and OSS then so be it. However, many go in with an attitude that now we can have a "fresh start" and do it right this time. Others are banking on the more developer and integrator friendly aspects of OSS in order to not only give them the functionality they require but without having to lock into a proprietary model that either ends up chocking them of all their money due to the bloat or simply having to do it the way someone else dictates. I think I am going to start sending thank you notes to all the little developers of anything from the individual applets to entire applications that focus from the beginning on allowing the developer (and by proxy the end user) the choice of not just what functionality or feature is present but how in fact it is implemented. When an application is released that then allows you to only use the various libraries you want for your integration effort and perhaps even assists you in picking other components other than the originally included ones for various functionality then you can focus on what that application does best and stick to what you like best (or what performs best).
An example of the opposite is when MS releases a product that really only operates with MS Office, SQL Server, IIS, AD, etc. It would be nice to use your existing server infrastructure and database systems while employing LDAP as LDAP and not the "enhanced" version without too much pain.
Funny thing is, many anti-MS zealots here might not want to admit it but Linux is a fine example of the free market at work and how in the end MS and others will be forced to adapt. In words Ballmer has admitted this stating, "since we are obviously not going to give our software away, we must justify the cost with superior products and service." Later on he makes a comment about the industry's reaction to them and how the trend is showing indeed that developers (and again by proxy the users) demand affordable quality that seemlessly (whatever that means!) integrates with anything else they choose. (Playing nicely with others) The public at large is no different in the choice of IS than in matters of state, they often use their lack of knowledge as a justification to be stupid. Ignorant is ok, we are all ignorant (a specialist is defined as he who is ignorant in all fields but one) yet many refuse to judge worth on the information they do get. Example is when company A is proven to be lying about their product and using strong arm and manipulative tactics to cover up the truth. A smart person makes a note of this, a fool makes excuses and a wise person will do a bit of research and use pattern recognition to find those that do not do this. (note, wise people employ consistency and an alarming lack of hypocricy as not doing so only hurts them in the long run)
Re:keyword (Score:4, Interesting)
I haven't really found documentation to be a big problem to be honest, and although more spartan SGML or gtk-html genereated docs are far easier to read than stuff on MSDN, which invariably only looks good on huge screens (with IE of course).
Oh, a decent command line is useful too.
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:5, Interesting)
I doubt that companies will want to develop a product for each OS, it's too costly.
If done properly multiplatform shouldn't cost that much extra, compared to the increased number of possible customers. So for the time beeing I think we could expect quite a few multiplatform developments. Then the time will come when enough people realize that they can get all their favorite apps on both windows and linux. Then the two OS-es will finally compete on an equal footing and the customer will choose based on price and quality instead of whether ProgramX will run. I expect MS will have to change it's pricing drastically in order to stay a major player
This is ofcource assuming MS doesn't manage to get linux outlawed as "terrorist tools" or use some other kind of legal extortion too keep it's lead.
on a more humorous note: My girlfriend cares about at least one. developer...
That's nice, good luck to the both of you. Could you please give me a few pointers on how to achieve this. My wife care's for me, except for the developer part, she appear to believe it interferes with our social life and keeps me from giving her the attention she deserves. I'm afraid I'll have to start keeping my computer in a locked room lest it'll be the victim of a jealousey murder :)
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:5, Interesting)
These closed source tools don't have much nerd crediblity as they were built to hide the "programming" so they are often ignored by the open source community, but they're interesting because of their deep integration in education. We're talking huge taxpayer bucks have been spent on this stuff.
I think it's really important that we get people to vote on the upcoming legislation directing government money towards open souce and education is a huge part of that. One of the arguments that you're going to hear is that the schools will have to toss all their old software because it only runs on Windows. Well, that's total bullshit. I've never seen one of these Macromedia education apps that won't run under Wine.
If we introduce open source in the K-12 schools, it's just a matter of time till Windows becomes little more than a history lesson.
Re:Say what you want... (Score:3, Interesting)
They now changed the website software to some ASP thing, anyway the site _refuses_ anything but IE. But not only that, but Win98 users who haven't bothered upgrading IE can't access it either.
A large number of the University's computers are Sun Rays which make it impossible to access this site from them.
The only way I could get my computer at home to connect to this site was to set konqueror to report IE 5.5 on win2000 (Setting Opera to report IE was not sufficient, the OS string still makes the site complain). Luckily konqueror allows you to set it on a site by site basis.
I have complained and gotten other people to complain, yet nothing has changed. What are you supposed to do when your University locks you out?
Wrong, very wrong (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Say what you want... (Score:2, Interesting)
user_pref("general.useragent.override", "Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 6.0; Linux)")
It worked with my online bank! This is what we should do, i.e not fake the OS part of the string.
It Never crossed my mind.. Thanks.
Re:Wrong, very wrong (Score:3, Interesting)
I'm not sure that happens. We also used Macs k-12. But, and I know someone is going to flame me, macs sucked back then compared to your average pc. If you had access to a pc and a mac you'd notice that the applications for pc were much better. Plus it didn't help any that the computers used in school were older and slower, which was a big difference in those days. It's probably why I really hated using macs until someone with a modern G3 let me play with theirs.
However, in my University, we use Solaris. I can't afford a real sun machine, but using solaris exposed me to how cool and useful unix is and now i pretty much only use linux.
No amount of advertising is going to help you if your product is not very good.
Linux has 40% of the market in Desktop (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Who cares about developers ? (Score:1, Interesting)
Windows doesn't have greater market share because microsoft is misstating the market. It's not. Their numbers are flawless.
Windows appears to have greater market share because linux is a free operating system, and market share is determined by sales.
In a nut shell,
by it's very nature, linux could outnumber microsoft operating system three to one, and windows would still have the greater market share because it is taking part in "the market" you can't have "market share" if no one is _paying_ for your operating system.
First thing I would do to prove this is find the people who took the survey mentioned in the article, and ask them what they paid for their OS. I would be willing to wager that 80% of all linux users didn't pay a red cent.
And that's the ways it should be.
Sad but true.
At some point Linux os's will dominate the real world. I believe this to be true. But wouldn't it be ironic if Windows was still ahead in sales ten years from now when no one is buying operating systems at all?
Re:About Nicholas Petreley (Score:1, Interesting)
Although normally my reflex is to disagree with Nicholas Petreley, what he has to say is valid.
What he is exoressing is a move from windows to Linux among developers, which may or may not be "Desktop developers"
Re:About Nicholas Petreley (Score:3, Interesting)
I believe that Gnome and KDE would both like to clone the Windows(tm) UI as closely as possible
I sure hope not. I might have to go back to fvwm2 in order to have a usable window manager that actually knows that keyboard focus and topmost window are actually two seperate independant things that have nothing to do with each other.