In a preprint academic paper published in early April, MIT researchers describe a model that quantifies the impact of quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19, the novel coronavirus. From a report: Unlike most of the models that have so far been proposed, this one doesn't rely on data from studies about previous outbreaks, like SARS or MERS. Instead, it taps an AI algorithm trained to capture the number of infected individuals under quarantine using the SEIR model, which groups people into classes like "susceptible," "exposed," "infected," and "recovered." This approach potentially achieves accuracy higher than or comparable to previous work, which could help to better inform governments, health systems, and nonprofits as they make treatment and policy decisions about social distancing. For instance, the model found that in places like South Korea, where there was immediate government intervention, the virus spread plateaued more quickly.

"Our model shows that quarantine restrictions are successful in getting the effective reproduction number from larger than one to smaller than one. The [model] is learning what we are calling the 'quarantine control strength function,'" said George Barbastathis, MIT professor of mechanical engineering, who developed the model over the course of several weeks with civil and environmental engineering Ph.D. candidate Raj Dandekar as a part of a final class project. "That corresponds to the point where we can flatten the curve and start seeing fewer infections."

The last space shuttle launched in 2011 and NASA hasn't sent astronauts to space from US soil since then. That long dry patch is set to end on May 27 when the SpaceX Crew Dragon is scheduled to head to the International Space Station with two crew members on board. NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine posted the news on social media Friday along with a short video hyping the event.

The world's biggest trial of drugs to treat Covid-19 patients has been set up in the UK at unprecedented speed, and hopes to have some answers within weeks. From a report: The Recovery trial has recruited over 5,000 patients in 165 NHS hospitals around the UK in a month, ahead of similar trials in the US and Europe, which have a few hundred. "This is by far the largest trial in the world," said Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases and global health at Oxford University, who is leading it. He has previously led Ebola drug trials in west Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Recovery team expects to be the first to have definitive data. "We're guessing some time in June we may get the results," said Prof Horby. "If it is really clear that there are benefits, an answer will be available quicker." But he warned that in the case of Covid-19, there would be no "magic bullet."

Zeynep Tufekci, writing for The Atlantic: Donald Trump has declared that he would like the United States to stop funding the World Health Organization. It's unclear if he has the authority to change policy in this way, but he's trying. He wants to further break the WHO in ways it's already broken. Trump's ploy to defund the WHO is a transparent effort to distract from his administration's failure to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic. It would be disastrous too. Many nations, especially poor ones, currently depend on the WHO for medical help and supplies. But it is also true that in the run-up to this pandemic, the WHO failed the world in many ways. However, President Trump's move is precisely the kind of political bullying that contributed to the WHO's missteps.

The WHO failed because it is not designed to be independent. Instead, it's subject to the whims of the nations that fund it and choose its leader. In July 2017, China moved aggressively to elect its current leadership. Instead of fixing any of the problems with the way the WHO operates, Trump seems to merely want the United States to be the bigger bully. Fixing the WHO is crucial, because we desperately need well-functioning global health institutions. But that requires a correct diagnosis of the problem. There is an alternate timeline in which the leadership of the WHO did its job fully and properly, warning the world in time so that effective policies could be deployed across the planet. Instead, the WHO decided to stick disturbingly close to China's official positions, including its transparent cover-ups. In place of a pandemic that is bringing global destruction, just maybe we could have had a few tragic local outbreaks that were contained.

[...] Imagine the WHO took notice of the information it received from Taiwan and Hong Kong. Imagine the WHO also recognized that whistleblower doctors in Wuhan were being threatened with jail time. It would have realized that something important was happening, something worth investigating. It could have immediately, but politely, demanded access to the region around Wuhan and its hospitals. This alternate timeline does not ignore realpolitik. China is not a nation known for cooperating with international agencies when it doesn't want to. (This tendency is not specific to China. A U.S. law nicknamed the "Hague Invasion Act" threatens to invade the International Criminal Court in The Hague should any U.S. service member be indicted.) If China refused access, as it likely would have, the expectation isn't that the WHO officials would just get up and yell "Freedom!" at China's leadership. But there was a path that would recognize the constraints of international diplomacy, but still put the health of billions above all else.

China on Friday raised its coronavirus death toll by 50 percent in Wuhan, the city where the outbreak first emerged, amid accusations that the government had concealed the extent of the epidemic. From a report: Officials placed the new tally at 3,869 deaths from the coronavirus in the central Chinese city, an increase of 1,290 from the previous figure. The number of cumulative confirmed infections in the city was also revised upward to 50,333, an increase of 325. The move appeared to be a response to growing questions about the accuracy of China's official numbers and calls to hold the country responsible for a global health crisis that has killed more than 142,000 people and caused a worldwide economic slowdown. China has been criticized as having initially mismanaged and concealed the extent of the epidemic, though it ultimately swung into action and seemingly tamed the virus. Recently, as other countries have grappled with their own outbreaks, Chinese officials have come under even greater pressure to explain how exactly the epidemic unfolded in Wuhan.

gollum123 shares a report from CNBC: On March 19, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a statewide shelter-in-place order to stem the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus. Washington State Gov. Jay Inslee followed four days later. While they were moving aggressively relative to the rest of the country, the top employers in their states were weeks ahead of them. Twitter was the first to move, strongly encouraging its nearly 5,000 employees to work from home on March 1, because of the rapidly spreading coronavirus, and making the order mandatory on March 11. Amazon told its roughly 50,000 Seattle-area employees on March 4 to work from home if they could. Facebook informed its Bay Area workers the next day that it was 'strongly recommending' they work remotely. Over the next week, Google, Microsoft and Salesforce mostly emptied out, keeping about 200,000 people away from the office. Tech has taken a beating in recent years as critics have attacked the industry's growing power, privacy abuses and executive malfeasance. But the industry's early social-distancing moves are a big reason that California and Washington, two early U.S. hotspots of virus outbreak, have bent the infection curve while other states are deep in crisis.

puddingebola shares a report from ESO: Observations made with ESO's Very Large Telescope (VLT) have revealed for the first time that a star orbiting the supermassive black hole at the centre of the Milky Way moves just as predicted by Einstein's general theory of relativity. Its orbit is shaped like a rosette and not like an ellipse as predicted by Newton's theory of gravity. This long-sought-after result was made possible by increasingly precise measurements over nearly 30 years, which have enabled scientists to unlock the mysteries of the behemoth lurking at the heart of our galaxy.

Located 26,000 light-years from the Sun, Sagittarius A* and the dense cluster of stars around it provide a unique laboratory for testing physics in an otherwise unexplored and extreme regime of gravity. One of these stars, S2, sweeps in towards the supermassive black hole to a closest distance less than 20 billion kilometers (one hundred and twenty times the distance between the Sun and Earth), making it one of the closest stars ever found in orbit around the massive giant. [...] Most stars and planets have a non-circular orbit and therefore move closer to and further away from the object they are rotating around. S2's orbit precesses, meaning that the location of its closest point to the supermassive black hole changes with each turn, such that the next orbit is rotated with regard to the previous one, creating a rosette shape. General Relativity provides a precise prediction of how much its orbit changes and the latest measurements from this research exactly match the theory. This effect, known as Schwarzschild precession, had never before been measured for a star around a supermassive black hole.

The University of Oxford's Big Data Institute found that 56% of the general population, or 80% of current smartphone owners, would need to use a contact-tracing app for it to be effective in helping stop the coronavirus. The BBC reports: If there is lower uptake, academics say the app would still help slow the spread of Covid-19. They add that letting people self-diagnose the illness could be critical. The experts say "speed is of the essence", and that delaying contact tracing by even a day from the onset of symptoms could make the difference between epidemic control and resurgence. "There would be more people receiving notifications as a result of false warnings," explained Prof Christophe Fraser.

The team estimates that 56% of the general population must use the app to halt the outbreak. Prof Fraser said that equated to 80% of all existing smartphone owners, based on data from Ofcom. "That's a very ambitious target," the professor acknowledged. "It's not something that would typically happen for a new app - even an incredibly popular one - but if we can explain that this is a public health intervention, that will be new and different. [...] More than 80% of people surveyed said they were likely to or would install this app when it was explained in detail what it would be doing." Even if fewer people install the app, the team estimates that one infection will be averted for every one to two users.

In his annual shareholder letter, Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos said that a next step for the company could be regularly testing its employees for the coronavirus, even if they show no symptoms. From a report: "Regular testing on a global scale, across all industries, would both help keep people safe and help get the economy back up and running," he wrote Thursday. Amazon first discussed the concept of developing its own testing capabilities last week. Bezos' public support for this initiative follows a similar push on Wednesday from banking and financial services leaders, who told President Donald Trump in a conference call that more widespread coronavirus testing is needed before the public would feel comfortable going out regularly again, The Wall Street Journal reported. This work is part of early-stage discussions by the White House, state governments and business leaders on how they will start reopening the economy following weeks of restrictive stay-at-home orders and mandated store closures. Along with far more testing, calls for people to regularly use face masks in public places are gaining more traction.

A team of transatlantic scientists, using reanalyzed data from NASA's Kepler space telescope, has discovered an Earth-size exoplanet orbiting in its star's habitable zone, the area around a star where a rocky planet could support liquid water. Phys.Org reports: Scientists discovered this planet, called Kepler-1649c, when looking through old observations from Kepler, which the agency retired in 2018. While previous searches with a computer algorithm misidentified it, researchers reviewing Kepler data took a second look at the signature and recognized it as a planet. Out of all the exoplanets found by Kepler, this distant world -- located 300 light-years from Earth -- is most similar to Earth in size and estimated temperature.

This newly revealed world is only 1.06 times larger than our own planet. Also, the amount of starlight it receives from its host star is 75% of the amount of light Earth receives from our Sun -- meaning the exoplanet's temperature may be similar to our planet's as well. But unlike Earth, it orbits a red dwarf. Though none have been observed in this system, this type of star is known for stellar flare-ups that may make a planet's environment challenging for any potential life. There is still much that is unknown about Kepler-1649c, including its atmosphere, which could affect the planet's temperature. Current calculations of the planet's size have significant margins of error, as do all values in astronomy when studying objects so far away. But based on what is known, Kepler-1649c is especially intriguing for scientists looking for worlds with potentially habitable conditions.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: There was a dramatic melting of Greenland's ice sheet in the summer of 2019, researchers have confirmed, in a study that reveals the loss was largely down to a persistent zone of high pressure over the region. The ice sheet melted at a near record rate in 2019, and much faster than the average of previous decades. Figures have suggested that in July alone surface ice declined by 197 gigatons -- equivalent to about 80 million Olympic swimming pools. Now experts have examined the level of melting in more detail, revealing what drove it. Crucially, the team note, the high pressure conditions lasted for 63 of the 92 summer days in 2019, compared with an average of just 28 days between 1981 and 2010. A similar situation was seen in 2012, a record bad year for melting of the ice sheet.

Writing in the journal the Cryosphere, [researchers] report how they used satellite data, climate models and global weather patterns to explore the melting of the surface of the ice sheet last year. Among their findings the team report that almost 96% of the ice sheet underwent melting at some time in 2019, compared with an average of just over 64% between 1981 and 2010. Using models, the pair also found that about 560Gt of meltwater runoff was generated in the summer of 2019. The surface mass balance, the amount of ice the sheet gained from rain and snowfall minus the amount lost through meltwater run off and evaporation, was just 54Gt a year -- about 320Gt a year lower than the average across the earlier decades, and the greatest such drop on record. Further analysis showed the level and distribution of melting to be closely tied to a number of factors, including levels of snowfall and reflection of sunlight -- known as albedo -- as well as cloudiness and absorption of sunlight. All of these, they note, were influenced by the persistent high pressure zone over the ice sheet last summer.

On Tuesday, General Motors revealed that its first ventilators are ready for delivery. "The automaker has a contract with the US Department of Health and Human Services to license-build 30,000 Ventec Life Systems V+ Pro critical care ventilators," reports Ars Technica. "These ventilators are designed to treat the most critically ill patients, who need invasive intubation (tubes inserted into the lungs) as opposed to non-invasive machines like CPAP or BiPAP devices, which are also often referred to as ventilators." Ars Technica reports: GM says that it will ship the first 600 ventilators by the end of April, with "almost half the order" ready by the end of June and the full 30,000 by the end of August. The company has the capacity to produce more if needed. The automaker has leveraged its logistics chain and worked with suppliers to source parts and assemblies, and it has worked closely with Ventec to make these urgently needed medical devices.

Preprint servers and peer-reviewed journals are seeing surging audiences, with many new readers not well versed in the limitations of the latest research findings. From a report: Early on Feb. 1, John Inglis picked up his phone and checked Twitter, as he does most mornings. He was shocked at what fresh hell awaited. Since 2013, Dr. Inglis, executive director of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press in New York, has been helping manage a website called bioRxiv, pronounced "bio archive." The site's goal: improve communication between scientists by allowing them to share promising findings months before their research has gone through protracted peer review and official publication. But the mess he was seeing on Twitter suggested a downside of the service provided by the site, known as a preprint server, during the emerging coronavirus pandemic. The social media platform was awash with conspiracy theories positing that the new coronavirus had been engineered by the Chinese government for population control. And the theorists' latest evidence was a freshly submitted paper on bioRxiv from a team of Indian researchers that suggested an "uncanny similarity" between proteins in H.I.V. and the new virus.

Traditionally, the Indian researchers would have submitted a paper to a peer-reviewed journal, and their manuscript would be scrutinized by other scientists. But that process takes months, if not more than a year. BioRxiv, medRxiv -- another site co-founded by Dr. Inglis -- and other preprint servers function as temporary homes that freely disseminate new findings. For scientists on the front lines of the coronavirus response, early glimpses at others' research helps with study of the virus. But there is a growing audience for these papers that are not yet fully baked, and those readers may not understand the studies' limitations. Views and downloads on medRxiv, for instance, have increased more than 100-fold since December, Dr. Inglis says. People with little scientific training, or none at all, are desperate for new knowledge to better inform their day-to-day decisions. The news media wants to keep readers and viewers updated with the latest developments. And agents of disinformation seek to fuel conspiratorial narratives.

Verily, the Alphabet life sciences division that launched its COVID-19 screening and testing program last month, is still under scrutiny from lawmakers over how it is collecting users' data, as well as its plans to expand its test sites outside of California. From a report: At the end of March, five US senators wrote to Verily asking, among several other things, whether its screening website was compliant with the HIPAA Privacy Rule, and whether Verily intended to remove the requirement that all users who screen for COVID-19 have a Google account. Verily has now addressed those questions in a letter sent to the same senators and obtained by Business Insider. In it, Verily assured the senators that any data collected wouldn't be used for commercial purposes or sold to third parties. But it also confirmed that its screening site was not in compliance with the HIPAA privacy rule.

"Verily has focused on the protection of the security and privacy of personal health information since the inception of its Baseline COVID-19 Program," the company wrote. "With respect to its Baseline COVID-19 Program, Verily is not acting as a covered entity or a business associate as defined by HIPAA. As the Program expands, we will continue to prioritize the protection of individual health data. However, in the future if we engage in a program where we do become a covered entity or we are required to sign a BAA we will take all the appropriate steps to ensure compliance with HIPAA."

Nectar Gan, Caitlin Hu and Ivan Watson, reporting for CNN: China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web. Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.

A medical expert in Hong Kong who collaborated with mainland researchers to publish a clinical analysis of Covid-19 cases in an international medical journal said his work did not undergo such vetting in February. The increased scrutiny appears to be the latest effort by the Chinese government to control the narrative on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives and sickened 1.7 million people worldwide since it first broke out in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December. Since late January, Chinese researchers have published a series of Covid-19 studies in influential international medical journals.

New submitter wattersa writes: Mathematician/Physicist Stephen Wolfram, founder of Wolfram Research and creator of the technical computation program Mathematica, has announced a discovery in the area of theoretical physics. His long-form blog post discusses the emergence of physical properties of our universe from what he describes as simple, universal, computable rules. He claims the emergent properties are consistent with relativity and quantum mechanics through a 448-page technical paper on the subject, which is posted on a completely new website that just went online.

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Security researcher Trammell Hudson analyzed the AirSense 10 -- the world's most widely used CPAP -- and made a startling discovery. Although its manufacturer says the AirSense 10 would require "significant rework to function as a ventilator," many ventilator functions were already built into the device firmware. Its manufacturer, ResMed, says the $700 device solely functions as a continuous positive airway pressure machine used to treat sleep apnea. It does this by funneling air into a mask. ResMed says the device can't work as a bilevel positive airway pressure device, which is a more advanced machine that pushes air into a mask and then pulls it back out. With no ability to work in both directions or increase the output when needed, the AirSense 10 can't be used as the type of ventilator that could help patients who are struggling to breathe. After reverse-engineering the firmware, Hudson says the ResMed claim is simply untrue.

To demonstrate his findings, Hudson on Tuesday is releasing a patch that he says unlocks the hidden capabilities buried deep inside the AirSense 10. The patch is dubbed Airbreak in a nod to jailbreaks that hobbyists use to remove technical barriers Apple developers erect inside iPhones and iPads. Whereas jailbreaks unlock functions that allow the installation of unauthorized apps and the accessing of log files and forensic data, Airbreak allows the AirSense 10 to work as a bilevel positive airway pressure machine, a device that many people refer to as a BiPAP. "Our changes bring the AirSense S10 to near feature parity with BiPAP machines from the same manufacturer, boost the maximum pressure output available, and provide a starting point to add more advanced emergency ventilator functionality," Hudson and other researchers wrote on their website disclosing the findings. The researchers say Airbreak isn't ready to be used on any device to treat a patient suffering from COVID-19 -- it's simply to prove that the AirSense 10 does have the ability to provide emergency ventilator functions, and to push ResMed to release its own firmware update that unlocks the ventilator functions.

Slashdot reader and managing director of Adafruit, Phillip Torrone, a.k.a. ptorrone, writes: Tom's Hardware talked to Adafruit about what it's like to switch from selling tech to selling protective gear, and when hobbyists can expect things to return to normal. In March of 2020, Adafruit was deemed an essential service and business for critical manufacturing in NYC by executive order 202.6, making face shields and making/shipping critical components and electronics for COVID-19 related efforts and testing. "We've always needed to make essential electronics for people," Torrone said, stressing that this isn't new for them. "When this hit, there was a very specific short term need. And that was for face shields. And because we have 3D printers, we have laser cutters, we have production capabilities, [when] New York City put out the call, our name came up right away because that's one of the things we do."

On top of that, "we can make components for ventilators," Torrone added: "We can make components for the fast track FDA medical devices that people are trying to get out as fast as possible, from testing equipment to you name it, any type of temperature sensing or pressure sensing...We make electronic components that are used in many, many things. So no matter what, we would still need to be making those components for medical devices...electronics are electronics, so this temperature sensor that we used to use for other things, is going to be used for this now. This barometric pressure sensor, or that barometric pressure sensor [is going to be used for other things]...So for us, it was like 'Oh, this is just going in a different type of box for different types of application.'"

Since Adafruit's shift to essential medical and protective gear, the company's other products are now shipping out on a "when we can do it" basis. Tom's Hardware notes that the company "is still selling to select university and military researchers, but all others will have to wait until an unspecified time in the future to buy their usual Adafruit tech." Thankfully, Torrone says the customer response to the delay of normal business has been largely positive. "We've always been a good cause and a good business with a really good community. So our customers said, 'I'm still going to order and just ship it when you can.' So for regular orders for our customers, they've been fantastic."

The cigar-shaped interstellar visitor to our solar system known as 'Oumuamua could be the remnants of a larger body that was torn apart by its host star, according to researchers. From a report: The dark, reddish object that hurtled into our solar system in 2017 and was named after the Hawaiian word for messenger or scout has long puzzled scientists. Among its peculiarities is the lack of an envelope of gas and dust that comets typically give off as they heat up. Further work by experts suggested the body was accelerated by the loss of water vapour and other gases -- as seen with comets but not asteroids. The upshot was that âOumuamua was labelled a "comet in disguise." Now scientists say they have shed light on the mystery and addressed the myriad pieces of the 'Oumuamua puzzle. They say 'Oumuamua is an "active asteroid" formed from a body that was torn apart by its parent star and then ejected into interstellar space.

"Most planetary bodies ... consist of numerous pieces of rock that have coalesced under the influence of gravity. You could imagine them as sandcastles floating in space," said Dr Yun Zhang, a co-author of the new study from the Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur in France. These bodies experience a number of forces as they pass their star. "A tidal encounter between a planet or small body and a star is a tug-of-war game between the gravitational pull of the star and the self-gravity of the flyby body," said Zhang, noting that when the body passes too close to the star and enters the tidal disruption region, it can stretch and be torn apart giving rise to fragments.

sciencehabit shares a report from Science Magazine: Artificial intelligence (AI) is evolving -- literally. Researchers have created software that borrows concepts from Darwinian evolution, including "survival of the fittest," to build AI programs that improve generation after generation without human input. The program replicated decades of AI research in a matter of days, and its designers think that one day, it could discover new approaches to AI. The program discovers algorithms using a loose approximation of evolution. It starts by creating a population of 100 candidate algorithms by randomly combining mathematical operations. It then tests them on a simple task, such as an image recognition problem where it has to decide whether a picture shows a cat or a truck.

In each cycle, the program compares the algorithms' performance against hand-designed algorithms. Copies of the top performers are "mutated" by randomly replacing, editing, or deleting some of its code to create slight variations of the best algorithms. These "children" get added to the population, while older programs get culled. The cycle repeats. In a preprint paper published last month on arXiv, the researchers show the approach can stumble on a number of classic machine learning techniques, including neural networks.