Earth

'Boiling Frog' Effect Makes People Oblivious To Threat of Climate Crisis, Shows Study (theguardian.com) 186

An anonymous reader shares a report: Surveys show that the increasing number of extreme climate events, including floods, wildfires and hurricanes, has not raised awareness of the threats posed by climate change. Instead, people change their idea of what they see as normal. This so-called "boiling frog effect" makes gradual change difficult to spot.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University in Pennsylvania wondered if climate change could be made more obvious by presenting it in binary terms. Local newspaper archives describing ice skating on Lake Carnegie when it froze in winter inspired a simple experiment. Some test subjects were shown temperature graphs of a fictional town's winter conditions; others had a chart showing whether or not a fictional lake froze each year. The result, published in Nature, showed those who receiving the second graphic consistently saw climate change as more real and imminent.

Binary data gives a clearer impression of the "before" and "after." The disappearing ice is more vivid and dramatic than a temperature trace, even though the underlying data is the same. "We are literally showing them the same trend, just in different formats," says Rachit Dubey, a co-author of the study. These results should help drive more effective ways of communicating the impact of climate change in future by finding simple binary, black-and-white examples of its effects.

Earth

Top UN Court Says Countries Can Sue Each Other Over Climate Change (bbc.com) 80

A landmark decision by a top UN court has cleared the way for countries to sue each other over climate change, including over historic emissions of planet-warming gases. BBC: But the judge at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands on Wednesday said that untangling who caused which part of climate change could be difficult. The ruling is non-binding but legal experts say it could have wide-ranging consequences. It will be seen as a victory for countries that are very vulnerable to climate change, who came to court after feeling frustrated about lack of global progress in tackling the problem.
Earth

Europe's Resistance To Air Conditioning is Softening Due To Climate Change and Recent Heat Waves (msn.com) 192

A record-breaking heat wave across Western Europe in June and July has triggered a political battle over air conditioning installation, with right-wing parties demanding widespread adoption while government officials warn of environmental consequences. More than 1,000 French schools closed partially or completely due to lack of air conditioning during the heat wave.

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party proposed a major campaign to install air conditioning in schools, hospitals and other institutions. UK Conservatives urged London's Labour mayor to eliminate restrictions on air conditioning in new housing, while Spain's Vox party highlighted air-conditioning breakdowns to criticize establishment parties. French Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher countered that large-scale air conditioning would heat streets with exhaust, worsening heat waves.

Europe is the fastest-warming continent, heating twice the global average since the 1980s. One study predicts air conditioning will increase Italy's annual power demand by 10% by 2050.
NASA

How NASA Saved a Camera From 370 Million Miles Away (phys.org) 38

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Phys.org: The mission team of NASA's Jupiter-orbiting Juno spacecraft executed a deep-space move in December 2023 to repair its JunoCam imager to capture photos of the Jovian moon Io. Results from the long-distance save were presented during a technical session on July 16 at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Nuclear & Space Radiation Effects Conference in Nashville. JunoCam is a color, visible-light camera. The optical unit for the camera is located outside a titanium-walled radiation vault, which protects sensitive electronic components for many of Juno's engineering and science instruments. This is a challenging location because Juno's travels carry it through the most intense planetary radiation fields in the solar system. While mission designers were confident JunoCam could operate through the first eight orbits of Jupiter, no one knew how long the instrument would last after that. Throughout Juno's first 34 orbits (its prime mission), JunoCam operated normally, returning images the team routinely incorporated into the mission's science papers. Then, during its 47th orbit, the imager began showing hints of radiation damage. By orbit 56, nearly all the images were corrupted.

While the team knew the issue might be tied to radiation, pinpointing what was specifically damaged within JunoCam was difficult from hundreds of millions of miles away. Clues pointed to a damaged voltage regulator that was vital to JunoCam's power supply. With few options for recovery, the team turned to a process called annealing, where a material is heated for a specified period before slowly cooling. Although the process is not well understood, the idea is that heating can reduce defects in the material. Soon after the annealing process finished, JunoCam began cranking out crisp images for the next several orbits. But Juno was flying deeper and deeper into the heart of Jupiter's radiation fields with each pass. By orbit 55, the imagery had again begun showing problems.

"After orbit 55, our images were full of streaks and noise," said JunoCam instrument lead Michael Ravine of Malin Space Science Systems. "We tried different schemes for processing the images to improve the quality, but nothing worked. With the close encounter of Io bearing down on us in a few weeks, it was Hail Mary time: The only thing left we hadn't tried was to crank JunoCam's heater all the way up and see if more extreme annealing would save us." Test images sent back to Earth during the annealing showed little improvement in the first week. Then, with the close approach of Io only days away, the images began to improve dramatically. By the time Juno came within 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) of the volcanic moon's surface on Dec. 30, 2023, the images were almost as good as the day the camera launched, capturing detailed views of Io's north polar region that revealed mountain blocks covered in sulfur dioxide frosts rising sharply from the plains and previously uncharted volcanoes with extensive flow fields of lava. To date, the solar-powered spacecraft has orbited Jupiter 74 times. Recently, the image noise returned during Juno's 74th orbit.

Earth

Climate Change Is Making Fire Weather Worse for World's Forests (nytimes.com) 28

An anonymous reader shares a report: In 2023 and 2024, the hottest years on record, more than 78 million acres of forests burned around the globe. The fires sent veils of smoke and several billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, subjecting millions of people to poor air quality. Extreme forest-fire years are becoming more common because of climate change, new research suggests.

"Climate change is loading the dice for extreme fire seasons like we've seen," said John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at the University of California Merced. "There are going to be more fires like this." The area of forest canopy lost to fire during 2023 and 2024 was at least two times greater than the annual average of the previous nearly two decades, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers used imagery from the LANDSAT satellite network to determine how tree cover had changed from 2002 to 2024, and compared that with satellite detections of fire activity to see how much canopy loss was because of fire. Globally, the area of land burned by wildfires has decreased in recent decades, mostly because humans are transforming savannas and grasslands into less flammable landscapes. But the area of forests burned has gone up.

Earth

Should California's Grid Join a Larger Regional Electricity Market? (latimes.com) 212

One in every 9 Americans lives in California. And right now its Congress is debating a bill that "would help establish a regional electricity market capable of tying together the American West's three dozen independent power grids," according to the Los Angeles Times' newsletter about climate change and energy issues.

But that bill "has bitterly divided environmentalists," with some seeing it "as a plot by greedy energy companies to enrich themselves." Supporters say it would smooth the flow of solar and wind power from the sunny, windy landscapes where they're produced most cheaply to the cities where they're most needed. It would help California keep the lights on without fossil fuels, and without driving up utility bills... [S]olar and wind power are still cheaper than planet-warming coal and fossil gas. Which is why Michael Wara, a Stanford energy and climate scholar, isn't worried that SB 540 will leave Californians drowning in dirty power. In a regional market, solar and wind will usually outcompete coal and gas. "Any energy source that requires fuel to operate is more expensive than an energy source that doesn't," he said.

California also needs to prove that a grid powered entirely by clean energy is affordable and reliable. The state's rising electric rates are already a big concern. And although the grid has been stable the last few years, thanks to batteries that store solar for after dark, keeping the lights on with more and more renewables might get harder. Regional market advocates make a strong case that interstate cooperation would help.

For instance, a market would help California more smoothly access Pacific Northwest hydropower, already a key energy source during heat waves. It would also give California easier access to low-cost winds from New Mexico and Wyoming. Best of all, that wind is often blowing strong just as the sun sets along the Pacific. Another benefit: Right now, California often generates more solar than it can use during certain hours of the day, forcing solar farms to shut down — or pay other states to take the extra power. With a regional market, California could sell excess solar to other states, keeping utility bills down. "This is about lowering costs," said Robin Everett, deputy director of the Sierra Club's Beyond Coal Campaign.

"Unlike with past regional market proposals, California would retain control of its grid operator, with only a few functions delegated to a regional entity," the article points out. But opponents still worry this would give new powers to an outside-of-California group to thwart clean energy progress (if not gouge customers). Amendments passed this week add a "Regional Energy Markets Oversight Council" to address that concern — but which lost support for the bill from some of its earlier supporters.

"The amendments would make it easier for the Golden State to bail," notes the climate newsletter, and "Out-of-state utilities don't want to waste time and money committing themselves to a California-led market only to lose California, and thus many of the economic benefits..."
Space

'Fossil' Discovered Beyond Pluto Implies 'Something Dramatic' Happened 400M Years Ago (space.com) 63

"The distant reaches of the Solar System are still mysterious," writes ScienceAlert. "Not much sunlight pierces these regions, and there are strong hints that undiscovered objects lurk there. The objects that astronomers have discovered in these dim reaches are primordial, and their orbits suggest the presence of more undiscovered objects."

And now thanks to the giant 8.2-meter Subaru telescope at Hawaii's Mauna Kea Observatory, astronomers have discovered "a massive new solar system body located beyond the orbit of Pluto," reports Space.com. The weird elongated orbit of the object suggests that if "Planet Nine" exists, it is much further from the sun than thought, or it has been ejected from our planetary system altogether.

The strange orbit of the object, designated 2023 KQ14 and nicknamed "Ammonite," classifies it as a "sednoid." Sednoids are bodies beyond the orbit of the ice giant Neptune, known as trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), characterized by a highly eccentric (non-circular) orbit and a distant closest approach to the sun or "perihelion." The closest distance that 2023 KQ14 ever comes to our star is equivalent to 71 times the distance between Earth and the sun... This is just the fourth known sednoid, and its orbit is currently different from that of its siblings, though it seems to have been stable for 4.5 billion years.

However, the team behind the discovery, made using Subaru Telescope as part of the Formation of the Outer Solar System: An Icy Legacy (FOSSIL) survey, thinks that all four sednoids were on similar orbits around 4.2 billion years ago. That implies something dramatic happened out at the edge of the solar system around 400 million years after its birth. Not only does the fact that 2023 KQ14 now follows a unique orbit suggest that the outer solar system is more complex and varied than previously thought, but it also places limits on a hypothetical "Planet Nine" theorized to lurk at the edge of the solar system.

There's "no viable transfer mechanisms" to explain the observed orbits "with the current configuration of planets," according to the team's recently-published paper. But since those orbits are stable, it "suggests that an external gravitational influence beyond those of the currently known Solar System planets is required to form their orbits." So where does that leave us? ScienceAlert summarizes the rest of the paper — and where things stand now: Astronomers have proposed many sources for this external gravitational influence, including interactions with a rogue planet or star, ancient stellar interactions from when the Sun was still in its natal cluster, and the capture of objects from other lower-mass stars in the Solar System's early times. But the explanation that gets the most attention is interactions with a hypothetical planet, Planet Nine.

If Planet Nine exists, it has a huge area to hide in. Some astronomers who have studied its potential existence think it could be the fifth largest planet in the Solar System. It would be so far away that it would be extremely dim. However, we may be on the cusp of detecting it, if it exists. The Vera Rubin Observatory recently saw first light and will begin its decade-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). The LSST will find transient events and objects in the Solar System like no other telescope before it. It's purpose-built to find hard-to-detect objects, and not even an elusive object like Planet Nine may be able to hide from it.

Earth

In Shallow Water Ships Trigger Seafloor Methane Emissions, Study Finds (msn.com) 52

An anonymous reader shared this report from the Washington Post: Ships trigger seafloor methane emissions while moving through shallow water, researchers report in Communications Earth & Environment. The scientists say the unexpected discovery has nothing to do with the type of fuel used by the ship. Instead, "ship-induced pressure changes and turbulent mixing" trigger the release of the gas from the seafloor. Bubbles and gas diffusion push the methane into the atmosphere, where it acts as a greenhouse gas...

Container and cruise ships triggered the largest and most frequent methane emissions, but the study suggests that ships of all kinds, regardless of their type of engine or size, trigger methane emissions. Researchers said they observed emissions that were 20 times higher in the shipping lane than in undisturbed nearby areas. Given the number of ports in similarly shallow areas worldwide, it's important to learn more about emissions in shipping lanes and to better estimate their "hitherto unknown impact," study co-author Johan Mellqvist, a professor of optical remote sensing at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, said in a news release.

Android

Android Phones Can Detect Earthquakes Before the Ground Starts Shaking (gizmodo.com) 33

Electronic messages travel faster than seismic waves, Gizmodo points out — meaning some people near an earthquake receive an Android Earthquake Alert "before the seismic waves reach them — and even a few seconds could be just enough time to hide under a table or run outside."

Richard Allen from the University of California in Berkeley's Seismological Laboratory, writes in a new study that "The global adoption of smartphone technology places sophisticated sensing and alerting capabilities in people's hands, in both the wealthy and less-wealthy portions of the planet."

From Gizmodo: According to the study, 70% of the world's smartphones are Android phones, which by default come with the aforementioned sensing and alerting capabilities. From 2021 to 2024, the Android Earthquake Alert (AEA) system detected an average of 312 earthquakes per month across 98 countries. The earthquakes had a magnitude between 1.9 and 7.8, and the system alerted users of earthquakes at or over a magnitude of 4.5, averaging around 60 events and 18 million alerts per month. The AEA system also collected user feedback, revealing that 85% of users who received alerts experienced shaking, with 36% receiving the alert before, 28% during, and 23% after the shaking began...

"AEA demonstrates that globally distributed smartphones can be used to detect earthquakes and issue warnings at scale with an effectiveness comparable to established national systems," the researchers wrote.

The system detected 11,231 earthquakes between April of 2021 and March of 2024, according to the study, which notes that the length of the advanced warning "ranged from seconds up to a minute" for moderate shaking, and about 15 seconds for the strongest shaking.
The Military

What Eyewitnesses Remembered About the World's First Atomic Bomb Explosion in 1945 (politico.com) 47

Historian Garrett M. Graff describes his upcoming book, The Devil Reached Toward the Sky: An Oral History of the Making and Unleashing of the Atomic Bomb. "I assembled an oral history of the Manhattan Project, the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the end of World War II in the Pacific, told through the voices of around 500 participants and witnesses of the events — including luminaries like Albert Einstein and Oppenheimer and political figures like President Harry Truman."

It was 80 years ago this week that physicists and 150 other leaders in the atomic bomb program "gathered in the desert outside Alamogordo, New Mexico, for the world's first test of a nuclear explosion." In an except from his upcoming book, Graff publishes quotes from eyewitness: Brig. Gen. Leslie Groves: I had become a bit annoyed with Fermi when he suddenly offered to take wagers from his fellow scientists on whether or not the bomb would ignite the atmosphere, and if so, whether it would merely destroy New Mexico or destroy the world. He had also said that after all it wouldn't make any difference whether the bomb went off or not because it would still have been a well worthwhile scientific experiment. For if it did fail to go off, we would have proved that an atomic explosion was not possible. Afterward, I realized that his talk had served to smooth down the frayed nerves and ease the tension of the people at the base camp, and I have always thought that this was his conscious purpose. Certainly, he himself showed no signs of tension that I could see...

As the hour approached, we had to postpone the test — first for an hour and then later for 30 minutes more — so that the explosion was actually three- and one-half hours behind the original schedule... Our preparations were simple. Everyone was told to lie face down on the ground, with his feet toward the blast, to close his eyes and to cover his eyes with his hands as the countdown approached zero. As soon as they became aware of the flash they could turn over and sit or stand up, covering their eyes with the smoked glass with which each had been supplied... The quiet grew more intense. I, myself, was on the ground between Bush and Conant...

Edward Teller: We all were lying on the ground, supposedly with our backs turned to the explosion. But I had decided to disobey that instruction and instead looked straight at the bomb. I was wearing the welder's glasses that we had been given so that the light from the bomb would not damage our eyes. But because I wanted to face the explosion, I had decided to add some extra protection. I put on dark glasses under the welder's glasses, rubbed some ointment on my face to prevent sunburn from the radiation, and pulled on thick gloves to press the welding glasses to my face to prevent light from entering at the sides... We all listened anxiously as the broadcast of the final countdown started; but, for whatever reason, the transmission ended at minus five seconds...

Kenneth T. Bainbridge: My personal nightmare was knowing that if the bomb didn't go off or hang-fired, I, as head of the test, would have to go to the tower first and seek to find out what had gone wrong...

Brig. Gen. Thomas F. Farrell: Dr. Oppenheimer held on to a post to steady himself. For the last few seconds, he stared directly ahead.

A few examples of how they remembered the explosion:
  • William L. Laurence: There rose from the bowels of the earth a light not of this world, the light of many suns in one.
  • Kenneth T. Bainbridge: I felt the heat on the back of my neck, disturbingly warm.
  • George B. Kistiakowsky: I am sure that at the end of the world — in the last millisecond of the earth's existence — the last man will see what we have just seen.
  • Brig. Gen. Thomas F. Farrell: Oppenheimer's face relaxed into an expression of tremendous relief.
  • J. Robert Oppenheimer: We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried.
  • Norris Bradbury, physicist, Los Alamos Lab: Some people claim to have wondered at the time about the future of mankind. I didn't. We were at war, and the damned thing worked.

Transportation

'Edge of Space' Skydiver Felix Baumgartner Dies in Paragliding Accident (go.com) 38

Felix Baumgartner has died. He was 56.

In 2012 Slashdot extensively covered the skydiver's "leap from the edge of space." ABC News remembers it as a Red Bull-financed stunt that involved "diving 24 miles from the edge of space, in a plummet that reached a speed of more than 500 mph." Baumgartner recalled the legendary jump in the documentary, "Space Jump," and said, "I was the first human being outside of an aircraft breaking the speed of sound and the history books. Nobody remembers the second one...."

Baumgartner, also known as "Fearless Felix," accomplished many records in his career, including setting the world record for highest parachute jump atop the Petronas Towers in Malaysia, flying across the English Channel in a wingsuit in 2003, and base jumping from the 85-foot arm of the Christ the Redeemer statue in Brazil in 2007.

"Baumgartner's altitude record stood for two years," remembers the Los Angeles Times, "until Google executive Alan Eustace set new marks for the highest free-fall jump and greatest free-fall distance."

They report that Baumgartner died Thursday "while engaged in a far less intense activity, crashing into the side of a hotel swimming pool while paragliding in Porto Sant Elpidio, a town on central Italy's eastern coast." More details from the Associated Press: "It is a destiny that is very hard to comprehend for a man who has broke all kinds of records, who has been an icon of flight, and who traveled through space," Mayor Massimiliano Ciarpella told The Associated Press.Ciarpella said that Baumgartner had been in the area on vacation, and that investigators believed he may have fallen ill during the fatal flight... Baumgartner, a former Austrian military parachutist, made thousands of jumps from planes, bridges, skyscrapers and famed landmarks...
ABC News remembers that in 2022 Baumgartner wrote in Newsweek that "Since I was a little kid, I've always looked up to people who left a footprint on this planet... now I think I have left a footprint...

"I believe big dreamers always win."
Mars

Largest Piece of Mars On Earth Fetches $5.3 Million At Auction (apnews.com) 12

At Sotheby's Geek Week auction, the largest known Martian meteorite on Earth sold for a record-breaking $5.3 million. The Associated Press reports: The 54-pound (25-kilogram) rock named NWA 16788 was discovered in the Sahara Desert in Niger by a meteorite hunter in November 2023, after having been blown off the surface of Mars by a massive asteroid strike and traveling 140 million miles (225 million kilometers) to Earth, according to Sotheby's. The estimated sale price before the auction was $2 million to $4 million. The identity of the buyer was not immediately disclosed. The final bid was $4.3 million. Adding various fees and costs, the official sale price was about $5.3 million, making it the most valuable meteorite ever sold at auction, Sotheby's said.

The live bidding was slow, with the auctioneer trying to coax more offers and decreasing the minimum bid increases. [...] The bidding for the Mars meteorite began with two advance offers of $1.9 million and $2 million. The live bidding slowly proceeded with increases of $200,000 and $300,000 until $4 million, then continued with $100,000 increases until reaching $4.3 million. The red, brown and gray meteorite is about 70% larger than the next largest piece of Mars found on Earth and represents nearly 7% of all the Martian material currently on this planet, Sotheby's says. It measures nearly 15 inches by 11 inches by 6 inches (375 millimeters by 279 millimeters by 152 millimeters). It was also a rare find. There are only 400 Martian meteorites out of the more than 77,000 officially recognized meteorites found on Earth, the auction house says.

Earth

India Hits 50% Non-Fossil Power Milestone Five Years Ahead of Paris Agreement's 2030 Target (reuters.com) 28

India has achieved 50% of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources -- five years ahead of its 2030 target under the Paris Agreement, signalling accelerating momentum in the country's clean energy transition. From a report: The announcement comes as India's renewable power output rose at its fastest pace since 2022 in the first half of 2025, while coal-fired generation declined nearly 3%. Fossil fuels still accounted for over two-thirds of the increase in power generation last year. India plans to expand coal-fired capacity by 80 GW by 2032 to meet rising demand.
Communications

SES Completes $3 Billion Acquisition of Intelsat, Expanding Global Satellite Fleet (ses.com) 4

"The Luxembourg-based satellite company SES has now completed its acquisition of the European-based satellite company Intelsat, giving the combined company 120 active satellites in a variety of low and high Earth orbits," writes longtime Slashdot reader schwit1. "Both companies are long established, with Intelsat initially founded in the mid-1960s as a consortium of 23 nations aimed at launching the first geosynchronous communications satellites over the Atlantic and Pacific serving most of the Old World and linked to the New. The merger is an attempt by both companies to compete with the new low-orbit constellations of SpaceX, Amazon, and from China." From a press release: With a world-class network including approximately 90 geostationary (GEO), nearly 30 medium earth orbit (MEO) satellites, strategic access to low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, and an extensive ground network, SES can now deliver connectivity solutions utilizing complementary spectrum bands including C-, Ku-, Ka-, Military Ka-, X-band, and Ultra High Frequency. The expanded capabilities of the combined company will enable it to deliver premium-quality services and tailored solutions to its customers. The company's assets and networks, once fully integrated, will put SES in a strong competitive position to better serve the evolving needs of its customers including governments, aviation, maritime, and media across the globe. "Our focus is clear: to grow, to lead in high-potential markets, and to shape the future of our industry," said SES CEO Adel Al-Saleh in a statement. "This is a long-term play, and we are building with the future in mind -- growing year after year, expanding our capabilities, and creating lasting value for our customers and shareholders alike."

Fierce Network notes that the FCC is preparing to auction upper C-band spectrum (3.98-4.2 GHz), previously cleared in part by SES and Intelsat and now eyed for 5G expansion by Verizon and AT&T. With new legislative backing and industry pressure, including from CTIA and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr, the agency is being urged to act quickly to auction and open this spectrum for full-power wireless use.
Technology

The Secret To Better Airplane Navigation Could Be Inside the Earth's Crust 53

Airbus's Silicon Valley innovation center Acubed and Google spinout SandboxAQ have successfully tested a quantum-sensing navigation device as an alternative to GPS during 150 hours of flights across the continental United States. The toaster-sized MagNav device uses quantum physics to measure unique magnetic signatures in Earth's crust [non-paywalled, syndicated link], with an AI algorithm matching those signatures to exact locations.

The technology achieved Federal Aviation Administration requirements by pinpointing aircraft location within two nautical miles 100% of the time and within 550 meters 64% of the time. SandboxAQ CEO Jack Hidary called it "the first novel absolute navigation system to our knowledge in the last 50 years." The analog system cannot be jammed or spoofed like GPS, which faces increasing tampering in the Middle East and around Ukraine and Russia.
Earth

Armagh Observatory Marks 230 Years of Recording Weather (bbc.com) 10

Armagh Observatory is marking a very special meteorological milestone as the institute celebrates 230 years of continuous weather observation. From a report: The unbroken tradition of handwritten data makes it the longest sequence of continuous weather information gathered anywhere in the UK and Ireland. Events are being held at Armagh Observatory on Monday to mark the significant anniversary. Nowadays, most weather data is gathered only by automated weather stations, but not in Armagh, where the human touch remains.

The first handwritten recording was made on the evening of 14 July 1795, when a measurement of the temperature and air pressure was recorded on a graph at the observatory that sits above the city of Armagh. The measurement was repeated the next day and every subsequent day for the next 230 years.

Earth

More Than Half of Carbon Credit Auditors Have Signed Off on 'Overclaimed' Benefits (science.org) 55

Can carbon-reducing projects "offset" a company's emissions? "The reality has been less encouraging," according to a Science magazine editorial by Cary Coglianese, a law/political science professor at University of Pennsylvania, and Cynthia Giles, a former senior advisor at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In a new paper published Wednesday, they found that more than half of all currently-certified carbon auditors signed off on projects later found to be "overclaiming" carbon benefits.

Their conclusion? "Criticism should be directed not at individual auditors as much as the structure of the system that fosters these outcomes." Most carbon offset projects that have been closely scrutinized — including projects for forest protection, renewable energy, and methane-reducing methods of rice cultivation — have greatly exaggerated their climate benefits. More than 80% of issued credits might not reflect real emission reductions. This has alarmed potential offset purchasers and stalled carbon offset markets.

Efforts to resuscitate the beleaguered offset market tout third-party auditing as "essential" to ensuring credit integrity. That reliance is misplaced... [E]xtensive research from many contexts shows that auditors selected and paid by audited organizations often produce results skewed toward those entities' interests. A field experiment in India, for example, found that air and water pollution auditors who were randomly assigned and paid from a central fund reported emissions at levels 50 to 70% higher than auditors selected and paid by audited firms. Auditors — like all people — are subject to a well-established and largely unconscious cognitive phenomenon of self-serving bias, causing them to interpret evidence in favor of their clients...

[A]uditors have been required all along and have failed to prevent substantial credit overclaiming. It is rarely acknowledged that all of the credit overclaiming projects that have stirred so much controversy were ratified by third-party auditors under the same auditor selection and payment system that offset advocates rely on today... Auditors are unlikely to stay in business if they disapprove credits at the high rates that research suggests would be appropriate today...

Given the high planetary stakes in carbon policy choices being made now, it is past time to recognize that third-party auditors selected and paid by the audited organizations are not the bulwark for credit integrity they are claimed to be.

Earth

Underwater Turbine Spins 6.5 Years Off Scotland's Coast, Proving Viability of Tidal Energy (apnews.com) 74

An underwater turbine has been spinning for more than six years "to harness the power of ocean tides for electricity," reports the Associated Press. The long-running turbine (off the coast of Scotland) has now proven the commercial viability of the technology: Keeping a large, or grid-scale, turbine in place in the harsh sea environment that long is a record that helps pave the way for bigger tidal energy farms and makes it far more appealing to investors, according to the trade association Ocean Energy Europe. Tidal energy projects would be prohibitively expensive if the turbines had to be taken out of the water for maintenance every couple of years.

Tidal energy technologies are still in the early days of their commercial development, but their potential for generating clean energy is big. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, marine energy, a term researchers use to refer to power generated from tides, currents, waves or temperature changes, is the world's largest untapped renewable energy resource.

This long-running tidal energy project off the coast of Scotland has four 1.5-megawatt turbines — enough to power 7,000 homes for a year, according to the article. But they plan to add 20 turbines in 2030 ("after needed upgrades to the electricity grid are finished"), and the site "could eventually hold as many as 130 turbines that are more powerful than those at the site today."

Thanks to Slashdot reader Bruce66423 for sharing the news.
Moon

Astronomers Plan Far Side of the Moon Satellite to Hear Billion-Year-Old Radio Waves (cosmosmagazine.com) 12

An anonymous reader shared this report from Cosmos magazine about a plan to "pick up those faint signals from billions of years ago." Astronomers are planning to launch a tiny spacecraft to the far side of the Moon to listen out for "ancient whispers" in a quest to uncover the secrets of the early universe. The mission will focus on understanding the 'Cosmic Dawn', a period in the early stages of the universe after the Big Bang but before the first stars and galaxies appeared.

One of the difficulties in studying this period of the universe is that silence is essential. With all the electronics and interference in our atmosphere, Earth becomes too loud, making it unsuitable for this kind of research... The proposed mission will utilise the Moon as a giant shield, blocking out the noise from Earth, in order to observe these signals...

The mission, known as CosmoCube, is a joint study between the UK's University of Portsmouth, University of Cambridge and Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Space... CosmoCube's radio will operate at low frequencies (10-100MHz), which should hopefully be able to detect extremely faint signals. The team hope to reach lunar orbit before the end of the decade, with a roughly 5-year roadmap planned.

The article includes this quote from Professor David Bacon, from the University of Portsmouth and CosmoCube researcher. "It's incredible how far these radio waves have travelled, now arriving with news of the universe's history.

"The next step is to go to the quieter side of the Moon to hear that news."
China

Much of the World's Solar Gear is Made Using Fossil Power in China (asiatimes.com) 275

China "accounts for more than half of global coal use," reports Asia Times, "even as it builds the world's largest solar-panel and EV industries." Much of the world's solar gear is made on fossil power. The International Energy Agency finds that "coal generates over 60% of the electricity used for global solar PV manufacturing," far above coal's ~36% share of typical grids. That is because over 80% of PV factories sit in Chinese provinces like Xinjiang and Jiangsu, where coal dominates the grid.

China has poured over $50 billion into solar factories since 2011, roughly ten times Europe's investment, cutting panel costs by about 80% and fueling a worldwide solar boom. But those panels were produced on coal. In one analysis, they repay their manufacturing CO2 in only months, meaning the emissions were dumped up-front in China's coal plants. Any major disruption to China's coal power or factories (from grid shocks to trade barriers) could thus send ripples through the global PV market.

China's coal and heavy industries also feed its clean-tech supply chain. Coal-fired steel mills supply the aluminum and metal parts for EVs and panels, and coal chemicals provide battery precursors and silicon for solar... At the same time, Chinese oil and gas giants (CNPC, Sinopec) have set up solar, wind and battery divisions, redirecting fossil profits into green ventures.

Another interesting statistic from the article: "In Thailand, Asia's long-time auto hub, Chinese EV brands now command more than 70% of EV sales."

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