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2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?
Posted by
Zonk
on Fri Jul 06, 2007 05:34 PM
from the what-year-isn't-the-year-of-the-penguin dept.
from the what-year-isn't-the-year-of-the-penguin dept.
rstrohmeyer writes "Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"
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2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?
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what is linux (Score:3, Funny)
(Last Journal: Thursday August 16, @05:18PM)
Re:what is linux (Score:5, Funny)
(http://www.scorchingbeauty.com/)
what is linux
Something that doesn't sync to your iPhone.
No, I'm New Here (Score:4, Funny)
Re:No, I'm New Here (Score:5, Funny)
It's taken four years (Score:5, Funny)
Re:No, I'm New Here (Score:5, Funny)
2027 - year of fusion power? (Score:5, Funny)
Re:2027 - year of fusion power? (Score:5, Funny)
(http://members.virtualtourist.com/m/51ebe/ | Last Journal: Monday August 20, @09:15PM)
Re:2027 - year of fusion power? (Score:4, Insightful)
(http://255.255.255.255/)
Re:2027 - year of fusion power? (Score:5, Interesting)
(http://www.spacejock.com.au/)
In seven years of giving away my software I've never seen this many requests for non-Windows versions. Unfortunately all my apps are written in Visual Studio 6, so the current answer to both questions is NO. I am rewriting my stuff in VS2005 though, which might offer a bit more cross-platform support down the track with the Mono project. (And no, I'm not switching languages. First, because I do this for fun and second, at almost 40 years of age and with a publishing contract for my novels in hand, I'm past the days of learning new languages.)
Ooops ... (Score:5, Informative)
(http://foobsr.blogspot.com/ | Last Journal: Saturday March 26 2005, @05:24PM)
CC.
Re:Ooops ... (Score:5, Funny)
3d Realms are waiting for the adoption of Linux before releasing Duke Nukem Forever!
Nope. (Score:5, Insightful)
There will not be a "year of the Linux desktop".
There will only be the year when people realize that most everyone else is running Linux, too.
Re:Nope. (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://jedidiah.stuff.gen.nz/wp/ | Last Journal: Wednesday April 04 2007, @02:51PM)
If you want to see that Linux will eventually gain significant desktop market share then just compare Redhat 5.2 to Windows98, and Ubuntu 7.04 to Windows Vista; the desktop gap has been slowly but steadily closing for years. More and more people are finding Linux a viable alternative desktop. It is still not viable for everyone, but little by little it will get there.
Re:Nope. (Score:5, Insightful)
Honestly.
Go ask 10 non-technical people if they would consider using Linux as an OS, and 9 will look at you like you just spoke Greek to them. No, it doesn't count if you ask your wife, who you constantly bore with tech-talk about how much better Linux is than Windows. No, it doesn't count if you go ask your parents, whom you've been trying to convince to make the switch for the past 5 years. Go ask people that don't work in the tech industry, and who you haven't badgered constantly about Linux.
As I mentioned above, 9 won't know what you're talking about. The 10th person will think that Linux is pure command prompt, with no UI. Why? Not because they are dumb, but because they have just never heard of it. Just like they haven't heard of Solaris, and just like they haven't heard of z/OS. They don't talk about Linux on CNN, they don't write about Linux in Cosmo or Maxim. Hell, how often do you see it mentioned in 'science' magazines, like Discover or Popular Science? It doesn't matter if Ubuntu has a nice GUI and can load DVDs like any other OS. Most people just don't know that, and they probably don't care much. The idea of spending an hour replacing XP or Vista with Ubuntu would strike most people are boring and daunting. What reason do they have? Their computer works for the most part. Most wouldn't even know where to start. Not because they are dumb, but because:
1. They wouldn't know where to get Ubuntu.
2. They assume it would be as much of a chore to install as Windows. Oh, you don't think that is a chore? Well, that is probably because you're reading a technical website.
Yeah, I'd love to see Linux blow up this year. It is doing great in server land, but it has a ways to go before it gets on the desktop of the general public.
My wife used family Tree Maker also... (Score:4, Informative)
She is quite happy with it.
Re:if only linux had more games. (Score:5, Funny)
(Last Journal: Friday October 19, @09:21PM)
Re:A tiny market... (Score:5, Informative)
PS. It's been a few years since Loki, and there're more Linux users now. You might wanna update your stupid flamebait.
Re:if only linux had more games. (Score:5, Insightful)
The way I see it, it doesn't matter that there aren't games on Linux (and to a lesser extent, Macs) It isn't just that I'm not a big gamer, it is that I don't mind booting into Windows to play a game. Most games have a bit of a time commitment to them. At least an hour. If I'm going to be playing for that long or more, what's 2 minutes to reboot? Of course, that mean maintaining a copy of Windows... drivers and all, which is a bit annoying in and of itself, but not a deal killer for Linux.
Of course, I've never paid for a copy of Windows in my life, so maybe things would be different if I was legit and had to shell out extra money just to play games.
Another thing is that a lot of the really cool games are coming out on console first these days, so maybe the whole Windows/game issue will be moot. GTA IV, anyone?
-matthew
Re:if only linux had more games. (Score:4, Funny)
That's why most application have this feature called "save." It is so you don't have to lose your work.
Anyway, as I suggested to an AC on this thread, try hibernating instead of shutting down. It can be a little work to setup properly in Linux, but it works.
-matthew
Every year... (Score:5, Interesting)
(http://www.sevenl.net/ | Last Journal: Sunday January 16 2005, @12:15AM)
What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?
slashdot, of ALL places should understand that Linux is making better ground each year in a number of markets, including the desktop. To say that 'this is the year' we might as well say 'this is the century'. It's impossible to quantify.
Re:Every year... (Score:5, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Monday January 08 2007, @02:45PM)
It's obviously impossible to know for sure how many people use a given OS... especially when that OS is distributed freely and requires no kind of registration. However we can get some vague ideas from a few sources. The Linux Counter [li.org] estimated 29 million in 2005. This was in part based upon verifiable numbers from Red Hat indicating 8 million installs in 1998 (yes, this is including corporate installs, not just home users).
Another (again not totally reliable) way is to use browser stats. W3school [w3schools.com] reports ~3.4% of browsers are running in Linux. Since there are [internetworldstats.com] 1 billion internet users, that means 39 million Linux users.
Again, these numbers are open to massive debate. But I think the real number is somewhere in the ballpark of 10 million to 40 millions users. Alot more than most people think.
Re:Every year... (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://peter-b.co.uk/)
You're quite right. Windows does no such thing. My experiences indicate that if the Windows GUI fails, an inexperienced user is left helpless without a (usable) command line.
Re:Every year... (Score:5, Insightful)
What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?
I've seen estimates of Windows' desktop share that begin at 300 million users - equivalent to the entire population of the U.S.
Vista entered the consumer market in January.
In July, Walmart.com sells HP Pavilion Vista Premium laptops starting at $780.
15" Wide-Screen Display, Dual Core AMD CPU, 1 GB RAM, DVD burner and DX 9 GeForce Go graphics that do not suck. For $12 add 1 GB ReadyBoost Flash, for $120 a key chain USB HDTV tuner.
OEM Linux at Walmart is out. The generic Vista laptop from Dell is in.
If the Geek thinks mass-market pricing of Vista is going to be a turn-off, he is delusional. If he thinks that product activation, DRM, Windows Update, etc., concern anyone in this market, he is ready to be committed.
Re:Every year... (Score:5, Insightful)
If the Geek thinks mass-market pricing of Vista is going to be a turn-off, he is delusional.
You're delusional if you think the US experience applies to the 95% of the world's population that don't live in the US.
---
Windows and closed source software. The US intelligence [washingtonpost.com] agencies' back [wikipedia.org] door [wikipedia.org] to every network connected country and business on earth.
why not (Score:5, Insightful)
(http://evil.google.com/)
Maximum PC should stick to coolers (Score:3, Insightful)
(http://www.animats.com)
Maximum PC should stick to what they know - fans and heat sinks.
Linux missed the window for the desktop. Now that PCs are expected to play DRM-protected media encoded with proprietary codecs, the window for consumer open source systems has closed. Linux might have made it in 2002, but now it's too late.
I used an AT&T UNIX PC, made and sold by AT&T, in 1982. 25 years later, Unix/Linux on the desktop still isn't mainstream. Sorry, guys.
Dell is both driven and driver. (Score:5, Insightful)
(Last Journal: Friday November 02, @02:49PM)
IMHO Dell selling a Ubuntu-preloaded machine is not just a vendor having this epiphany, but also a force to promote it with other vendors.
People wanting to sell peripherals to users of Dell products now have a wakeup call about furnishing Linux support - along with a big-name company betting significant resources on a market being big enough to chase.
Not optimistic about the US (Score:4, Interesting)
I recently installed Ubuntu 7.04 as a family desktop (dual booting with Windows), on a Dimension 8400. Having reading so much about about what a terrific distribution it is, I decided to experiment. (To provide context, I also have a Debian server that handles backup, slimserver, print sharing, and a Myth backend, and a Debian Myth front end. I'm extremely happy with both.) I've been unpleasantly surprised by Ubuntu as a desktop.
1. Playing DVDs in the US remains a problem. I know that Linspire is going to address this, but this is a huge issue.
2. VPN is a pain. Apparently Network Manager doesn't work right if you have a static IP address! I spent a *lot* of time trying to get VPN to work before I discovered this. Yes, it's a reported bug.
3. Reliable power management, i.e. suspension and hibernation. It's crash city when I suspend or hibernate. Yes I have the latest BIOS. No, I'm not willing to buy a new machine. And yes, I'm sure there are many machines where power management works properly, but I'm also sure there are many machines like mine.
4. The general polish of the Gnome interface is low compared to Windows and OS X. (Yes, I've also looked at KDE.) When I switch users, why do I have to log in twice?
These strike me as all pretty basic issues. I haven't tried to find problems. I've just tried to get the Ubuntu desktop working as a functional equivalent of the Windows desktop. I couldn't do it.
I do see huge progress relative to 5 years ago, but I also see a long way to go.