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Are We Getting Closer to the Year of the Linux Desktop? (medium.com) 296

Earlier this year TechRepublic argued that while 2021 wasn't the year of the Linux desktop, "there was no denying the continued dominance of Linux in the enterprise space and the very slow (and subtle) growth of Linux on the desktop. And in just about every space (minus the smartphone arena), Linux made some serious gains."

So would 2022 be the year of the Linux desktop? "Probably not."

But developer Tim Wells honestly believes we're getting closer: The idea of the year of the Linux desktop is that there would come a year that the free and open source operating system would reach a stage that the average user could install and use it on their pc without running into problems. Linus Sebastian from Linus Tech Tips recently did an experiment where he installed Linux on his home PC for one month to see if he could use it not only for everyday tasks, but for gaming and also streaming. Ultimately he concluded (in a video just released) that this year will not be the year of the Linux desktop and that while doing everyday stuff was reasonably okay, the state of gaming on Linux (despite Valve's lofty goals) is to put it simply, a shit-show. (That's my word, not his)... The experiment done by Linus seems to show that while some games do indeed run well using [Valve's Windows compatibility layer] Proton, there are just as many that run with issues. Some of those issues can be game breaking. Such as the game running, but its multiplayer functionality not working at all. Some games just plain don't work at all due to dependencies on services such as Easy Anti Cheat...

In his video Linus mentions that the main problem preventing the "year of the Linux desktop" is the fragmentation. By fragmentation, he means the range of available distributions and the fact that each distribution has (potentially) different versions of libraries and drivers and software that makes the behind the scenes operate.... Flatpak and Snap as well as AppImage are making progress towards fixing this fragmentation issue, but those are not yet perfect either. Flatpak works by ensuring that the expected versions of libraries required for that software are installed along side it and independent of the existing library the distro may provide...

Valve have said that the Steamdeck will also use an immutable core operating system for the same reasons.

So while Linus is sure that 2022 isn't yet the year of the Linux desktop and that fragmentation is the biggest problem. I think maybe, just maybe, we're closer to solving those problems and closer perhaps to the year of the Linux desktop that some might realise.

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Are We Getting Closer to the Year of the Linux Desktop?

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  • No (Score:5, Funny)

    by Local ID10T ( 790134 ) <ID10T.L.USER@gmail.com> on Saturday January 15, 2022 @07:41PM (#62175961) Homepage

    -Betteridge

    • Damn you, Betteridge!!

      • Didn't like the cold truth?
    • Yes, but its the Year of Linux on the Microsoft Windows Desktop. The Year of the Windows Subsystem for Linux.
  • Huh? (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Freischutz ( 4776131 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @07:42PM (#62175963)
    The year of Linux on the desktop has been just around the corner for 30 years, I don't expect that to change for at least another 30 years.
    • Well, there's that, too.

    • Assuming desktop doesnt include smartphones and tablets? Because if they do the linux and BSD run the entire gambit and has since the beginning. Also Chromebooks are very popular with school systems. When you factor in older slower laptops, nothing breathes new life back into them than a linux distro. The marketshare is significantly higher than 15yr ago.
    • Well, there is a big change with Windows Subsystem for Linux. It's getting better, and it's very very easy now to get linux on your enterprise desktop. You can even do so without IT punishing you for not following the divine wisdom from Redmond. It's easier than installing Linux on a bare PC, or in a VM. Given that MacOS has been backsliding into becoming solely an iOS support machine, it seems Windows may become the new preference for those wanting a sane development environment while being mandated by

    • by kriston ( 7886 )

      Well, shit.

    • Well then, we're waiting for the Fusion desktop.

  • 2022 (Score:4, Insightful)

    by BytePusher ( 209961 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @07:50PM (#62175973) Homepage
    2022 was the year I gave up on the Linux desktop. I've been using Linux as my desktop since 1996, suffering and believing we just needed a few more apps to get there. I stopped believing after a year of WFH and all the headaches.

    Honestly, I think the absolute temper tantrum the OS community had over Mir and SystemD wasted precious years and set the Linux desktop back so far I just don't see it catching up. We need to kill X11 and the Wayland developers just don't seem up to the task.
    • Re:2022 (Score:5, Interesting)

      by OngelooflijkHaribo ( 7706194 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @07:58PM (#62176003)

      We need to kill X11 and the Wayland developers just don't seem up to the task.

      Wayland's solution to the sea of problems that X11 had was not to do the things that had problems better, but to not do them at all, and thus the problem was solved. — The old car may have had windows that were annoying and uncomfortable to open; the new and improved model simply does not have openable windows at all.

      • Re:2022 (Score:5, Funny)

        by Calydor ( 739835 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @09:07PM (#62176145)

        Well of course; the end goal is to not have windows anywhere, isn't it?

        • You jest, but Wine indefinitely discontinued it's Wayland port after they realized that they could not simulate Windows in it due to it being too restricted. — The Wayland developers are either too proud, or too ignorant to admit they underestimated matters, as is all too common, and that many of the features they thought were not useful enough are in fact used all the time outside of their little GNOME desktop where all they do is write code and browse the internet.

          So far so good; let Wayland fail a

      • At the risk of dragging this off-topic, what, exactly, is wrong with X11? Honest question. I've been a user of X since, oh, mid-90s at least, and once I got it configured on a particular host, I never gave it a second thought.
      • In all fairness, X11 is a car with a built in kitchen sink. There are some things you definitely don't need in a car.

    • by AvitarX ( 172628 )

      You lasted longer than me.

      The transition to gnome 3 pretty much ended it for me.

      I understand that Wayland is supposed to be better, but gnome 2 with a compositing window manager was pretty great.

      KDE feels loud to me, and GNOME 3 is hostile to users (for example avoiding taking advantage of the Wayland interface to allow the compositor to draw window decorations, taking the stance that mismatched window decorations are no more annoying than apps with different fonts).

  • it's lack of motivation. why go out of my way to ensure my app or game works with linux, if the market share is like 1%? and making the app/game cross platform from the beginning is still more work than just developing for windows. even if the code was 100% the same, there's testing to be done

  • by diffract ( 7165501 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @07:55PM (#62175995)
    In fact, I am seeing the opposite lately.
    many game developers are deciding to drop support for an OS with sub 1% market share and 30% of bugs reported
    • The bugs reported issue is what they're usually happy with; it's not that it has so much more bugs; it's that they are more often reported, and often come with usual diagnostics and steps to reproduce.

      They also do not support “Linux”; they typically support, say, “Ubuntu with either GNOME or KDE on X11”, which is again to say “Linux” is not a platfom, and people should stop acting as though it be.

    • by jd ( 1658 )

      First, I want some clear cites on that 30%. It is possible that companies are writing crappy compatibility layers. Indeed, they'd have to be, as Linux overall has 1/10th the bugs per kloc of Windows. If so, that's not a Linux issue, that's a failure to write good code and a failure to test at time of writing. Poor testing means many of those bugs also exist in Windows, Windows users are just more tolerant of crappy code.

      Second, given that you have to include all Steam users under Linux, that sub 1% claim lo

      • by nasch ( 598556 )

        Why would all Steam users be considered Linux?

      • https://twitter.com/bgolus/sta... [twitter.com]

        "We shipped Planetary Annihilation on Win, Mac, and Linux. Linux uses we're a big vocal part of the Kickstarter and forums.

        In the end they accounted for 20% of auto reported crashes and support tickets (most gfx driver related).

        Would totally skip Linux."

        There are very few Windows versions (that are supported) - there's a lot of Linux distributions that are all somewhat different. Add to that the fact that hardware manufacturers do not care enough to make good drivers (since

    • Exactly how is Android and Chrome 1% market share?
  • Between Jackd2 and PipeWire, we seem to be getting to the point where audio on Linux is of high grade and suitable for both games and professional users.

    Most of the real-time stuff is now in the kernel, it seems, so desktop-oriented users should be seeing high-grade performance. Now, there is an audiophile distro with some real-time stuff of its own, but it hasn't been updated for a few years. And there are commercial real-time Linux kernels. However, I've not seen anyone make any serious use of those for a

    • by Thumper_SVX ( 239525 ) on Sunday January 16, 2022 @10:56AM (#62177317) Homepage

      I can tell you that I do a lot of audio work myself and have done for years. I had dabbled with the Linux desktop many times but this most recent time I put Ubuntu 18.04 on my primary machine back in 2018 and have actually been incredibly happy with it. As you noted, with Jackd2 and PipeWire for high-quality audio work Linux is definitely right there and in some ways better than Windows. My desktop now runs Ubuntu 20.04 with the -lowlatency kernel and for both my audio work and the little bit of video editing I also dabble in it's been amazing, solid, stable and predictable.

      And I don't know if I'm just not a demanding gamer, but just about every game I've thrown at this setup has worked great as well... now granted I don't do a lot of multiplayer and every game I have these days is on Steam... but even big AAA releases seem to just work most of the time. In fact, most of the problems I have with games tend to be the small indie developers or the single developers. The only recent examples I can think of that required either fiddling or just plain didn't work for me were Exo One and Starship EVO... again, small studios. But even then a few updates later both worked straight out of the box and I have no issues with either now. Yes, most of my games run under Proton rather than native... but I don't typically see any problems with these running.

      I will admit I run the proprietary NVidia drivers... but Windows users do too. So if you're a complete nut for "untainted open source" then yeah you're going to have a hard time... but having said that if you're going for fully open source why are you trying to get inherently closed-source games to work anyway? I do very occasionally hit performance issues with games, but they are vanishingly rare at this point and seem no worse than performance issues reported on similar hardware in Windows. I might not be getting the absolute maximum framerate out of every game, but over 60fps I am not sure I've ever actually cared all that much except for "bragging rights". The games look and move fine by my standards and I can play them. Maybe with my age my eyes just don't care all that much any more :) Simply put; my video card can drive my 120hz widescreen monitor just fine for everything I throw at it; why should I care about a few more FPS?

      As for sound drivers, that actually tends to be a pretty solid support experience in Linux. Sound just isn't being developed or advanced the way graphics are; there's just no need. There's little that needs to be done with audio that really will make a significant difference to the finished product because human ears haven't changed and computers frankly were well able to do audio work decades ago. Sure, more CPU horsepower means I have more channels to play with and better DSP's can help make my final mix cleaner, but the truth is that the technology didn't plateau but certainly reached the "flattening of the curve" part of it development a long time ago and most new hardware is merely incremental improvements and usually actually using the same hardware with a few new interfaces attached. I literally can't remember the last time I plugged in a new bit of sound hardware and it didn't just work out of the box, even if it said it was for Windows and I couldn't find any specifics about whether or not it was supposed to work. In fact the only problem I have with Linux and audio is that I have so many inputs and outputs in my machine that every now and again it gets confused about my defaults and I find myself jumping on a conference call where noone can hear me or I can't hear them and I discover that it's trying to use some other audio device that's not immediately preferred for the meeting. Fixing that takes me 10 seconds in the Ubuntu mixer.

  • by Dirk Becher ( 1061828 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:14PM (#62176029)

    I wonder if there is a pagan holiday whose date depends on when the "Year of the Linux desktop" post appears.

  • by fredrated ( 639554 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:20PM (#62176035) Journal

    20 years, just after fusion.

  • by mlheur ( 212082 )

    I use Linux on my desktop most of the day, every day. Inside windows...

  • by Registered Coward v2 ( 447531 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:27PM (#62176049)

    In his video Linus mentions that the main problem preventing the "year of the Linux desktop" is the fragmentation.

    If games are a "shit show" and MS Office isn't available on Linux then 2 main reasons users turn to Windows is not addressed by Linux. Without a compelling reason to install Linux users will continue to use whatever comes installed on their machine. The don't care about the GPL or software freedom, that want something that works and runs software they want. All the arguments about "XYZ is a close equivalent " will not matter to them. Add in a general disdain for new users and condescending responses to basic questions and 2022 will likely not be the year of Linux on the desktop.

    • by upuv ( 1201447 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:50PM (#62176087) Journal

      You nailed the issue.

      Productivity suites simply suck on Linux. Microsoft has little desire to make O365 run properly as a first class app on Linux. Without that Linux will never take over.

      Interestingly COVID has resulted in two areas of major improvement on the Linux desktop.
      1. Video conferencing
      2. Chat tools

      Granted almost all of those tools use Electron as a cross platform base which makes it far easier to make a rich graphical app in Linux.

      If some one were to port an office suite to Electron I think you would see strong shift to Linux as a desktop.

      Now I also predict that Microsoft will eventually abandon Windows. With the near certain purchase of Conical by Microsoft I think we will see a rather speedy shift to a Linux based Windows environment. It's this event, the purchase of Conical that will mark the beginning of the Desktop migration to Linux.

      • Firstly, it's "Canonical", not Conical.

        Secondly, why would Microsoft buy them? It's open-source. They can do whatever they want with it without paying for it. It's not like the Canonical or Ubuntu "brand" are worth anything.

        Plus, Microsoft has gone pretty nuts with the WSL stuff. You can run Linux in a window on Windows. You can even run full-on GUI Linux apps as if they are native Widnows apps.

        So...why would Microsoft switch to Linux? They don't need to. Linux apps run just fine in Windows. And, the NT ker

    • I'm waiting for the Sauren Desktop. The one to rule them all. Seriously with the majority of computers having virtualization (just not being used) one could have as many OS and versions as one wants. And that opens up the application space of all of them as well. A person isn't penalized because they're not using the socially approved OS, but as the saying goes, "it's the apps, stupid" will be for everyone.

  • Repost! (Score:5, Informative)

    by AndyKron ( 937105 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:32PM (#62176057)
    Repost of post from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003,...
  • No (Score:4, Insightful)

    by djp2204 ( 713741 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @08:42PM (#62176069)

    When I can install a Linux distro on my computer/laptop and all the hardware works without me having to recompile the kernel, download a piece of software I need using another computer, or hack an obscure library then we will have Linux on the desktop

    • by Bert64 ( 520050 )

      You can if you buy hardware intentionally for running linux, rather than buying random hardware and later hoping linux works with it.
      Generally if you buy high quality hardware from reputable vendors its more likely to work with linux and windows will run better on it too.

      The same is true of windows - there are many instances where the stock MS version requires additional drivers to install, or you have to download network drivers from another machine and copy them across before you can get online.

      In these c

      • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

        by realmolo ( 574068 )

        Oh, come on.

        Don't pretend that installing drivers in Windows isn't *a billion times simpler* than installing them in Linux. In the *rare* instances when Windows doesn't have a built-in driver (and contrary to what you wrote, nearly every network interface chipset is supported out-of-the-box these days. Network cards are almost "generic" anymore. Gigabit ethernet chipsets haven't changed much in the past 8 years or so), all you have to do is hit the manufacturer's site and download an installer.

        Linux...if th

    • Heh. Try getting an Xbox one wireless receiver working even on the approved version (Windows 10), never mind any other should poke a big hole in that argument.

    • When I can install a Linux distro on my computer/laptop and all the hardware works without me having to recompile the kernel, download a piece of software I need using another computer, or hack an obscure library then we will have Linux on the desktop

      I have had pretty good luck getting Ubuntu to run on supported Dells out of the box.

    • What are you rambling about?

      Every laptop and desktop I've ibstalled linyx on, which was manufactured during the past 10-ish years, has worked out of the bix including Wifi, Bluetooth, Gfx and Sound.

      I've tried tio of the line Lenovo X1 line (2 models), Asus midrange laptops, various gaming desktops with high end graphics etc, Acers, the mini PCs from Shuttle & various others.

      I'm not saying that there aren't some obscure models out there that possibly need a tweak, but c'mon... 99% of them JustWork(tm).

    • Not quite right. If you can go out and easily buy a laptop running Linux from a regular shop, the year of desktop Linux is upon us. If you buy a Dell laptop that can be configured to be delivered with Linux, order it with Windows, abs install Linux on it, according to your rule, the year is desktop Linux is upon us already. Please note: not being able to install Linux on a laptop and have everything working, including all peripherals is not a requirement for the year of Linux on the desktop. After all, you
  • No, there will never be a year of the Linux desktop. Not anytime in the next decade.

  • I haven't purchased a Windows or Apple license in a half dozen years or so. I use Ubuntu Linux exclusively and haven't felt the need to change that and don't find it difficult or confusing to use at all. Even my elderly parents are using it along with my children.

    If you mean Linux Desktops in the workplace, then I'd have to agree with you. There doesn't seem to be any traction there.

    Best,

  • So Linux makes slow and steady progress, but as they do, aren't we moving more apps off the computer and into the cloud? By that point, it will barely matter. On my personal laptop, I only use 1 native application: Adobe Lightroom....a stinking piece of garbage that intentionally cripples their cloud offering to tie it to their cloud storage/hosting service Behance no one uses. If Adobe wasn't a stinking cesspool of shittiness, they would actually enable all the features in Lightroom Classic in their clo
  • by _0x0nyadesu ( 7184652 ) on Saturday January 15, 2022 @09:35PM (#62176203)

    I run Gentoo and I game on it. I use Ubuntu on AWS for work servers. My laptop is a MacBook Pro running MacOS. My phone is an Android 11 Sony. My TV is a Sony with Android TV. My NAS box / media center is Windows.

    Those of us that game on Linux do it for the challenge but also for control. I never have to worry about windows update, malware, or performance degrading background services that Microsoft tends to inject into Windows whenever they so choose.

    I've played a lot of games on Linux. Civ 5 and 6 work natively. So do many Total War series games. Most Valve titles as well. Do I care that League of Legends is broken when my game works fine? Not really. At this point the perspective changes. Now I have many games and the studios need to win me over with Linux support. When a game like Skyrim works perfectly fine and I bet 1000 hours of game play out of it why would I care about some other game that doesn't work on my machine?

    Linux support is really not that difficult. You support certain minimum versions that were out even 3-4 years ago. Some base Ubuntu for example is perfectly fine. Most distros match that basic compatibility. I choose Gentoo because I can have the most recent version of anything hours after the code is committed. Or I can choose to lock a version and stay on it. I know I am an edge case but there are dozens of us.

    It's important to also note that I regularly wrestled with game issues in Windows too so the idea that Windows is a hassle free environment is plainly untrue.

    I think folks on /. should try to consider the perspective change that can occur once an open source platform becomes the new normal.

    At work all our non technical staff is now using ChromeOS except for sales/marketing (cause they want native Excel). If that domino falls it would really be interesting.

  • I would switch to Linux for my desktop and laptop (probably actually running on a Linux based stripped down install of KVM which would have only the bare essentials installed and then my desktop environment would run in a VM to make it easier to return to a checkpoint when, as happens occasionally, software updates don't go well on Linux) if only...

    1. There was a version of Quicken that was supported on Linux, and
    2. There was a version of HR Block tax software that was supported on Linux each year.

    A few yea

  • The year of the Linux desktop will be fusion powered.
  • by Chas ( 5144 )

    We've had "Year of the Linux Desktop" announced something like 10-15 times in the last 20-25 years.
    While uptake of Linux is promising, it just never materializes.

    People don't want to have to REALLY "admin" their own equipment.

  • Maybe stop trying to "disrupt" the desktop model. I'm looking at you, GNOME 3.

    Nobody wanted that to happen outside of the GNOME team and the Linux Desktop movement was damaged beyond repair because of that attitude.

  • Linux Mint has been my Linux desktop for every day tasks for years and my servers are either a mix of Rocky Linux and Ubuntu.. The only reason I boot Windows 10 are the rare times I want to play games. So as far as I am concerned we are way past the year of the Linux desktop.

    Sadly though every year I give gaming a shot on Linux, nope, always a mess.

  • Year of the Hurd Desktop.

    --
    GNU is as GNU does, Mr. Stallman.

  • I use Linux as my daily driver for my desktop and love it. For work I use Windows and I've got a few Macs around the house. For me, Linux is superior and the reason I hope it never becomes the year of the Linux desktop is that I enjoy flying under the radar. I like the exclusivity of being in the 2% or so of people that use Linux as their main desktop environment. I like the freedom and flexibility that only Linux can give you. I like using an operating system that doesn't track my every move. But most of a

  • So, now instead of just having to worry about fragmentation of distros and desktops, now we have massive fragmentation occurring with package managers, containers, and "stores". It's the typical software developer's curse: every time they try to make installation and maintenance simpler, they make it more complicated.

    I was trying to switch to Linux for over 15 years, constantly trying new distros. Now that things like Snaps and other political grabs are becoming a thing, I've just given up. All the drawb

  • Highly configurable, beautiful, fast, consistent and stability is ok (has been improved considerably in the recent years).
    Combined with BTRFS/snapper and full disk encryption it's the best working environment I can imagine.

    And no, Windows 10 is not there yet. Inconsistent, buggy, slow, bloated as hell. Still can't get printing right after 30 years.
  • ...this is still the year of the Linux Martian Helicopter! So who cares about the desktop? :)

  • And doing just fine and not looking back at all. I don't have any Microsoft products in my business anymore. And I only do iOS development on the Macs.
  • As much as I love Linux and use it as my daily driver, hell, my only driver; it's not ready for the "year of the linux desktop" because as long as it's an acceptable answer in the mindset of those building and coding for it to have the ONLY solution to 99% of user questions, as "simply go to the terminal and..." you've failed.
    Completely, utterly, MISERABLY failed.

    From troubleshooting to simply installing an app that isn't in the package manager to changing a fairly common setting/configuration that isn't av

  • as it was for me in 2021, 2020, 2019, ..., 1998, 1997. OK, so I've had to keep a windows machine or VM too at work for much of that time, but my primary desktop at home has been Linux since 1997 and at work 2003.

  • When everyone is using linux to provide their desktop computing experience, it will not be good for everyone who has had for many years enjoyed a linux desktop experience that doesn't insult their intelligence, ability to operate a command line, customize the UI, script up common tasks and generally live the life of a technically competent person.

    The year of the linux desktop will mean convergence onto a single desktop software stack that much software will demand be present in order to operate. It will cat

  • If the proliferation of ChromeOS has taught us anything, it's that the OS doesn't really matter anymore. The browser is the new OS, and no shortage of people use Gmail as a mail client, Office365 for document editing, Salesforce for CRM, Facebook for video chatting, Spotify for music, Netflix for movies, Canva for desktop publishing, Wix for web design....

    If they use a desktop that's completely FLOSS from BIOS to browser, only to access web apps that have replaced desktop software, nothing has been accompli

  • by Teun ( 17872 ) on Sunday January 16, 2022 @04:43AM (#62176783)
    In other words, Windows is a gaming platform.
    In the discussion about usable computers wouldn't call that a positive distinction...
  • by thegarbz ( 1787294 ) on Sunday January 16, 2022 @06:06AM (#62176923)

    I followed some simple instructions including how to update it after it was booted up. End result: multiple error messages about something something dependency unresolvable, vlc needing a new package incompatible with another package, and this media player suddenly prevented everything on the OS from updating. 10min later bashing around in the console and doing a few Googles I had a functioning system running through its update process.

    I have other Linux instances, one recently said something about python major version upgrades causing dependency issues and some packages stopped working. A bit of Googling and some console work later...

    I have a Linux server here which between a dist-upgrade changed flags in a way which made virtual servers unreachable on boot. More Googling (won't blame the console though, there's no UI on this one).

    I have a Linux laptop here which refuses to wake from sleep properly and when it does the wifi interface is normally gone. No amount of Google fixed this.

    Linux has a major usability problem. Not for us, but for the 99.5% of us who are not computer nerds who can fix problems. A quadruple amputee can count on their fingers how many times my father has opened the command line on a windows machine.

    People use Linux. People don't use Windows, they ignore Windows and use the software running on Windows instead which is precisely how a desktop OS should work.

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