Space

First Look At Secretive X-37B Space Plane In Orbit (space.com) 46

The U.S. Space Force released the first-ever public image of its secretive X-37B space plane in orbit, captured during its ongoing seventh mission that launched on December 28, 2023. Space.com reports: The photo, released on Thursday (Feb. 20), was taken by a camera onboard the X-37B while the secretive space plane orbited high above the African continent. One of the plane's solar panels is visible on the left side of the photo, while what appears to be its open payload bay is visible along the top edge. The vehicle has been in orbit for well over a year now, having launched on its seventh mission on Dec. 28, 2023 atop a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

And now, the X-37B has notched another milestone with the Space Force's release of this photo, the first-ever image of this space plane in orbit that has been shown to the public. While the photo contains scant details about the vehicle and what it's currently testing, it offers a look at Earth far in the background, revealing just how high the vehicle is flying on its seventh mission. We've gotten only one other glimpse at the X-37B in orbit prior to this. During the livestream of its most recent launch, a brief shot of the spacecraft deploying from Falcon Heavy's upper stage was seen while its service module was still attached.

Earth

Melting Glaciers Caused Almost 2cm of Sea Level Rise This Century, Study Reveals (theguardian.com) 73

Melting glaciers have caused almost 2cm of sea level rise this century alone, a decades-long study has revealed. From a report: The research shows the world's glaciers collectively lost 6.542tn tonnes of ice between 2000 and 2023, causing an 18mm (0.7in) rise in global sea levels. The world's glaciers lost an average of 273bn tonnes of ice every year -- the equivalent of 30 years of water consumption by the entire global population.

The assessment, led by scientists from the University of Edinburgh and the University of Zurich, found that so far this century, glaciers have lost approximately 5% of their total volume. Regional losses were highly variable; the Antarctic and subantarctic islands lost 2% of their volume but central Europe's glaciers lost 39%.

"These numbers are staggering. They serve as a reminder that things are changing fast in some regions," said Prof Noel Gourmelen, the co-lead author of the study and personal chair of Earth observation at the University of Edinburgh's school of geosciences. A stark contrast in the amount of ice lost each decade was also discovered, with 36% more ice having melted between 2012 and 2023 compared with the previous decade.

Earth

Historic Ocean Liner Departs Philadelphia On Voyage To Become the World's Largest Artificial Reef 93

The SS United States, a historic ocean liner that once held the transatlantic speed record of 36 knots (41 mph / 66 kph), has departed Philadelphia to be transformed into the world's largest artificial reef off Florida's Gulf Coast. The move is part of a $10 million project to boost tourism by creating a unique diving attraction while preserving the ship's legacy as a symbol of American innovation and engineering. The Associated Press reports: The SS United States, a 1,000-foot vessel that shattered the transatlantic speed record on its maiden voyage in 1952, is being towed to Mobile, Alabama, for planned prep work before officials eventually sink it off Florida's Gulf Coast. The move comes about four months after the conservancy that oversees the ship and its landlord resolved a years-old rent dispute. Officials initially planned to move the vessel last November, but that was delayed due to concerns from the U.S. Coast Guard that the ship wasn't stable enough to make the trip.

Officials in Okaloosa County on Florida's coastal Panhandle hope it will become a barnacle-encrusted standout among the county's more than 500 artificial reefs and a signature diving attraction that could generate millions of dollars annually in local tourism spending for scuba shops, charter fishing boats and hotels. Officials have said the deal to buy the ship could eventually cost more than $10 million. The lengthy process of cleaning, transporting and sinking the vessel is expected to take at least one-and-a-half years.
Space

3D Map of Exoplanet Atmosphere Shows Wacky Climate (arstechnica.com) 17

An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Astronomers have detected over 5,800 confirmed exoplanets. One extreme class is ultra-hot Jupiters, of particular interest because they can provide a unique window into planetary atmospheric dynamics. According to a new paper published in the journal Nature, astronomers have mapped the 3D structure of the layered atmosphere of one such ultra-hot Jupiter-size exoplanet, revealing powerful winds that create intricate weather patterns across that atmosphere. A companion paper published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics (PDF) reported on the unexpected identification of titanium in the exoplanet's atmosphere as well. [...]

This latest research relied on observational data collected by the European South Observatory's (ESO) Very Large Telescope, specifically, a spectroscopic instrument called ESPRESSO that can process light collected from the four largest VLT telescope units into one signal. The target exoplanet, WASP-121b -- aka Tylos -- is located in the Puppis constellation about 900 light-years from Earth. One year on Tylos is equivalent to just 30 hours on Earth, thanks to the exoplanet's close proximity to its host star. Since one side is always facing the star, it is always scorching, while the exoplanet's other side is significantly colder.

Those extreme temperature contrasts make it challenging to figure out how energy is distributed in the atmospheric system, and mapping out the 3D structure can help, particularly with determining the vertical circulation patterns that are not easily replicated in our current crop of global circulation models, per the authors. For their analysis, they combined archival ESPRESSO data collected on November 30, 2018, with new data collected on September 23, 2023. They focused on three distinct chemical signatures to probe the deep atmosphere (iron), mid-atmosphere (sodium), and shallow atmosphere (hydrogen).
"What we found was surprising: A jet stream rotates material around the planet's equator, while a separate flow at lower levels of the atmosphere moves gas from the hot side to the cooler side. This kind of climate has never been seen before on any planet," said Julia Victoria Seidel of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) in Chile and the Observatoire de la Cote d'Azur in France. "This planet's atmosphere behaves in ways that challenge our understanding of how weather works -- not just on Earth, but on all planets. It feels like something out of science fiction."
Moon

Nokia is Putting the First Cellular Network On the Moon (technologyreview.com) 33

An anonymous reader shares a report: Later this month, Intuitive Machines, the private company behind the first commercial lander that touched down on the moon, will launch a second lunar mission from NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The plan is to deploy a lander, a rover, and hopper to explore a site near the lunar south pole that could harbor water ice, and to put a communications satellite on lunar orbit. But the mission will also bring something that's never been installed on the moon or anywhere else in space before -- a fully functional 4G cellular network.

Point-to-point radio communications, which need a clear line of sight between transmitting and receiving antennas, have always been a backbone of both surface communications and the link back to Earth, starting with the Apollo program. Using point-to-point radio in space wasn't much of an issue in the past because there never have been that many points to connect. Usually, it was just a single spacecraft, a lander, or a rover talking to Earth. And they didn't need to send much data either. "They were based on [ultra high frequency] or [very high frequency] technologies connecting a small number of devices with relatively low data throughput," says Thierry Klein, president of Nokia Bell Labs Solutions Research, which was contracted by NASA to design a cellular network for the moon back in 2020.

Moon

After Launch by SpaceX in January, Firefly Aerospace's Lunar Lander Reaches Moon Orbit (spaceflightnow.com) 10

"A robotic lander from Texas-based Firefly Aerospace is now in orbit around the Moon," reports Spaceflight Now, "and going through its final preparations to land in the coming weeks." Its arrival comes nearly a month after the spacecraft launched onboard a Falcon 9 rocket from pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center. This is the third mission launched as part of the agency's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, an initiative designed to bring science and technology demonstrations to the Moon at a cheaper cost...

Manifested on this lander are 10 NASA payloads, which cover a range of objectives. Those include the Lunar Instrumentation for Subsurface Thermal Exploration with Rapidity (LISTER) instrument, which will drill between 2- to 3-meters into the Moon's surface to study the heat flow; and the Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume-Surface Studies (SCALPSS) 1.1 instrument, which will use a series of cameras to capture the plume generated at landing to help create a three-dimensional model... "We saw that for the type of advanced scientific or engineering measurements we wanted to make, the instruments were small enough and compact enough that we could actually fly 10," [said Joel Kearns, deputy associate administrator for Exploration in NASA's Science Mission Directorate], "if someone could actually schedule them to get all of their operations done over the 14 Earth day lunar daytime."

Firefly Aerospace ended up winning that bid and carries with it the most NASA instruments manifested on a single Commercial Lunar Payload Services lander so far.

Friday on X.com Firefly Aerospace wished a happy Valentine's Day to "all those on Earth who dare to Dream Big."

"Blue Ghost has been capturing stunning imagery of our planet throughout its journey," Spaceflight Now says in a 12-minute video.

And Friday on X.com Firefly posted Blue Ghost's first spectacular shots of the moon as it approaches — along with its special message for Valentine's Day. "I love you to the Moon, but not back — I'm staying there."
AI

'Mass Theft': Thousands of Artists Call for AI Art Auction to be Cancelled (theguardian.com) 80

An anonymous reader shared this report from the Guardian: Thousands of artists are urging the auction house Christie's to cancel a sale of art created with artificial intelligence, claiming the technology behind the works is committing "mass theft". The Augmented Intelligence auction has been described by Christie's as the first AI-dedicated sale by a major auctioneer and features 20 lots with prices ranging from $10,000 to $250,000...

The British composer Ed Newton-Rex, a key figure in the campaign by creative professionals for protection of their work and a signatory to the letter, said at least nine of the works appearing in the auction appeared to have used models trained on artists' work. However, other pieces in the auction do not appear to have used such models.

A spokesperson for Christie's said that "in most cases" the AI used to create art in the auction had been trained on the artists' "own inputs".

More than 6,000 people have now signed the letter, which states point-blank that "Many of the artworks you plan to auction were created using AI models that are known to be trained on copyrighted work without a license." These models, and the companies behind them, exploit human artists, using their work without permission or payment to build commercial AI products that compete with them. Your support of these models, and the people who use them, rewards and further incentivizes AI companies' mass theft of human artists' work. We ask that, if you have any respect for human artists, you cancel the auction.
Last week ARTnews spoke to Nicole Sales Giles, Christie's vice-president and director of digital art sales (before the open letter was published). And Giles insisted one of the major themes of the auction is "that AI is not a replacement for human creativity." "You can see a lot of human agency in all of these works," Giles said. "In every single work, you're seeing a collaboration between an AI model, a robot, or however the artist has chosen to incorporate AI. It is showing how AI is enhancing creativity and not becoming a substitute for it."

One of the auction's headline lots is a 12-foot-tall robot made by Matr Labs that is guided by artist Alexander Reben's AI model. It will paint a new section of a canvas live during the sale every time the work receives a bid. Reben told ARTnews that he understands the frustrations of artists regarding the AI debate, but he sees "AI as an incredible tool... AI models which are trained on public data are done so under the idea of 'fair use,' just as search engines once faced scrutiny for organizing book data (which was ultimately found to fall under fair use)," he said.... "AI expands creative potential, offering new ways to explore, remix, and evolve artistic expression rather than replace it. The future of art isn't about AI versus artists — it's about how artists wield AI to push boundaries in ways we've never imagined before...."

Digital artist Jack Butcher has used the open letter to create a minted digital artwork called Undersigned Artists. On X he wrote that the work "takes a collective act of dissent — an appeal to halt an AI art auction — and turns it into the very thing it resists: a minted piece of digital art. The letter, originally a condemnation of AI-generated works trained on unlicensed human labor, now becomes part of the system it critiques."

Christie's will accept cryptocurrency payments for the majority of lots in the sale.

NASA

ISS Astronauts Give Space-to-Earth Interview Weeks Before Finally Returning to Earth (cnn.com) 18

Last June two NASA astronauts flew to the International Space Station on the first crewed test flight of Boeing's Starliner. But they aren't stranded there, and they weren't abandoned, the astronauts reminded CNN this week in a rare space-to-earth interview: "That's been the rhetoric. That's been the narrative from day one: stranded, abandoned, stuck — and I get it. We both get it," [NASA astronaut Butch] Wilmore said. "But that is, again, not what our human spaceflight program is about. We don't feel abandoned, we don't feel stuck, we don't feel stranded." Wilmore added a request: "If you'll help us change the rhetoric, help us change the narrative. Let's change it to 'prepared and committed.'

"That's what we prefer," he said...

[NASA astronaut Suni] Williams also reiterated a sentiment she has expressed on several occasions, including in interviews conducted before she left Earth. "Butch and I knew this was a test flight," she told CNN's Cooper, acknowledging the pair has been prepared for contingencies and understood that the stay in space might be extended. "We knew that we would probably find some things (wrong with Starliner) and we found some stuff, and so that was not a surprise," she said.

When Cooper opened the interview by asking the astronauts how they're doing, Williams answers "We're doing pretty darn good, actually," pointing out they had plenty of food and great crew members. And Wilmore added that crews come to the space station on a careful cycle, and "to alter that cycle sends ripple effects all the way down the chain. We would never expect to come back just special for us or anyone unless it was a medical issue or something really out of the circumstances along those lines. So we need to come back and keep the normal cycle going..."

CNN's article notes a new announcement from NASA Tuesday that the astronauts might return a couple weeks early "after opting to change the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule it will use." That mission's targeted launch date is now March 12.

In the meantime, Williams says in the interview, "We do have some internet connection up here, so we can get some internet live. We've gotten football. It's been this crew's go-to this past fall. Also YouTube or something like that. It's not continuous — it has chunks of time that we get it. And we use that same system also to make phone calls home, so we can talk to our families, and do videoconferences even on the weekends as well. This place is a pretty nice place to live, for the most part."

And they're also "working on with folks on the ground" to test the NASA's cube-shaped, free-flying robotic Astrobees.
Earth

US Wildfire Suppressants Rife With Toxic Heavy Metals, Study Finds 73

A new study reveals that widely used pink wildfire suppressants contain high levels of toxic heavy metals like cadmium, arsenic, and chromium, with concentrations up to 3,000 times above drinking water limits. While the government and chemical makers have long concealed up to 20% of the suppressants' ingredients as "trade secrets," researchers have confirmed their role in environmental pollution, raising concerns over their extensive use in residential areas. The Guardian reports: The suppressants are a mix of water, fertilizer, and undisclosed ingredients, while the pink color comes from added dye to show firefighters where it has been sprayed. Metals are likely used as anti-corrosion agents to prevent the plane's tankers from disintegrating, they authors wrote. The mix works by coating vegetation and lowering the amount of oxygen that could fuel the fire. The substance was dropped by as many as 25 aircraft daily to contain the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, and photos from it vividly convey the trade off, showing homes and property covered in hot pink suppression.

The metal levels in the suppressants meet federal guidelines and the authors were initially most worried about environmental contamination, but the heavy use in residential areas this year raises a new set of concerns, Daniel McCurry, one of the study's co-authors, told the Guardian. "Are the hazardous waste thresholds the appropriate bar for these to clear, or, if they're being used in a massive scale in populated neighborhoods, do we need to get stricter on permissible concentrations of toxic compounds?" McCurry asked. [...] The producer of one of the suppressants has said a new generation of the product is "greener," McCurry said, but he added "until we are able to come across some of this material and test it, we really don't know."
Earth

Earth's Inner Core May Have Changed Shape, Say Scientists 46

Scientists have found evidence suggesting that Earth's inner core has changed shape over the past 20 years, possibly deforming at its edges due to interactions with the liquid outer core and gravitational forces. The BBC reports: The inner core is usually thought to be shaped like a ball, but its edges may actually have deformed by 100 million or more in height in places, according to Prof John Vidale who led the research. [...] The new analysis looked at seismic wave patterns from earthquakes that repeated in the same location between 1991 and 2023. That helped to show how the inner core is changing over time. Prof Vidale, an earth scientist at the University of Southern California, found more evidence to back up the theory that during those years the inner core slowed down around 2010. But his team also found the evidence of the inner core's changing shape. It appears to be happening at the boundary of the inner and outer core, where the inner core is close to melting point. The liquid flow of the outer core as well as pull from an uneven gravity field may cause deformation. Prof Hrvoje Tkalcic from Australian National University said the findings could allow scientists "to make more informed estimates of some important material properties, such as the viscosity of the inner core, which is one of the least known quantities in modern science."

The research is published in the scientific journal Nature Geoscience.
Space

Euclid Telescope Captures Einstein Ring Revealing Warping of Space (theguardian.com) 41

Europe's Euclid space telescope has captured a rare "Einstein ring," showing light from a distant galaxy bent into a perfect circle by the gravity of another galaxy sitting between Earth and the source, the European Space Agency said.

The phenomenon, spotted around galaxy NGC 6505 some 590 million light-years from Earth, reveals the warping of space predicted by Einstein's theory of relativity. The background galaxy, located 4.42 billion light-years away, appears as a complete ring of light around NGC 6505.

"An Einstein ring as perfect as this is extremely rare," said Open University astronomer Stephen Serjeant. Analysis shows NGC 6505 contains about 11% dark matter, a key focus of Euclid's mission to map the universe.
Cellphones

Free 'T-Mobile Starlink' for Six Months Announced During Super Bowl. Also Available to Verizon and AT&T Customers 211

Today T-Mobile announced what they're calling "the next big thing in wireless" — T-Mobile Starlink. But the real surprise is "The beta is now open for absolutely everyone — yes, even Verizon and AT&T customers — to register for free access until July."

And, as they explained to Americans watching the Super Bowl, "If you can see the sky you're connected." Now in public beta, this breakthrough service, developed in partnership with Starlink, uses straight-out-of-a-sci-fi-movie satellite and mobile communications technology to help keep people connected — even you, Verizon and AT&T customers — in the more than 500,000 square miles of the country unreached by any carrier's earth-bound cell towers. That's nearly the size of two Texases...! The beauty of the service is its simplicity: users don't need to do anything out of the ordinary. When a user's cell phone gets out of range of a cell tower, the phone automatically connects to the T-Mobile Starlink network. No need to manually connect. Messages are sent and received just as they are today on a traditional network, even group texts and reactions. And it works on most smartphones from the last four years. It's not limited to a few smartphones or operating systems...

The beta is free until July at which point T-Mobile Starlink will be included at no extra cost on Go5G Next (including variations like Go5G Next 55+), T-Mobile's best plan. Business customers will also get T-Mobile Starlink at no extra cost on Go5G Business Next, first responder agencies on T-Priority plans and other select premium rate plans. T-Mobile customers on any other plan can add the service for $15/month per line. Through February, T-Mobile customers who have registered for the beta can secure a $10/month per line Early Adopter Discount, 33% off the full price.

AT&T and Verizon customers hate dead zones, too

When your service is amazing and different, you want as many people to try it as possible. T-Mobile is giving AT&T and Verizon customers the opportunity to try out T-Mobile Starlink satellite service on their existing phones... During the beta period, Verizon and AT&T customers can experience T-Mobile Starlink text messaging for free, and once the service launches in July, it will be available for $20/month per line... More details and consumer registration can be found here.

A Vision for Universal Coverage

As T-Mobile and Starlink continue to work towards eliminating mobile deadzones, the companies welcome wireless providers from around the world to join their growing alliance, which aims to provide reciprocal roaming for all participating carriers. So far, KDDI (Japan), Telstra (Australia), Optus (Australia), One NZ (New Zealand), Salt (Switzerland), Entel (Chile & Peru), Rogers (Canada) and Kyivstar (Ukraine) are among the providers that have signed on to join the cause and launch satellite-to-mobile technology. Learn more about the alliance and how providers can join at direct.starlink.com.
NASA

Boeing's 'Starliner' Also Experienced an Issue on Its Return to Earth (orlandosentinel.com) 42

Friday the Orlando Sentinel covered NASA's 2024 mission-safety report from the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (formed in 1968). The report "commended the agency's handling of last year's beleaguered Boeing's Starliner mission [prioritizing astronaut safety], but revealed yet another issue found during the flight and questioned the agency's needs for the spacecraft in the future..." [The report] stated that it was unclear how a decision was made to waive a failure tolerance requirement on some of the thrusters without flight or qualification data to justify the decision. "These examples illustrate the panel's concern that, absent role clarity, risk management choices could unintentionally devolve to contractors, whose interests may not fully align with NASA's," the report warned...

It also revealed that in addition to the thruster and leak issues on the propulsion module driving the decision to fly home without astronauts, Starliner had a new issue as it made its way back to Earth. "Overall, Starliner performed well across all major systems in the undock, deorbit, and landing sequences; however, an additional mono propellant thruster failure was discovered in the crew module — distinct from the failures in the service module experienced during orbit," the report stated. "Had the crew been aboard, this would have significantly increased the risk during reentry, confirming the wisdom of the decision."

As far as Starliner's path to certification, the ASAP report said it would continue to monitor several unresolved issues with thrusters and seek information on how NASA and Boeing plan to get the spacecraft certified. "While the thruster issues have received considerable attention, the panel has previously noted other Starliner issues that require resolution prior to certification," it stated. That includes a battery redesign and work to strengthen the landing airbag apparatus. "Beyond these technical matters, schedule and budget pose substantial challenges to Starliner certification," the report added...

"Until the Starliner certification plan is well understood, it remains unclear as to whether a second provider will be available prior to the end of the ISS's operational life [in 2030]," the report stated.

The report "also suggested that NASA immediately adapt next-generation extravehicular mobility units, or EVUs," reports ExecutiveGov, "as current space suits astronauts use for operations outside the ISS are now beyond their design life."
Earth

Mysterious Radiation Belts Detected Around Earth After Epic Solar Storm 16

After the powerful solar storm of May 2024, scientists detected two new temporary radiation belts around Earth -- one of which contained something we had never seen before: energetic protons. ScienceAlert reports: "These are really high-energy electrons and protons that have found their way into Earth's inner magnetic environment," says astronomer David Sibeck of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, who was not involved with the research. "Some might stay in this place for a very long time." In fact, the belts remained intact for much longer than previous temporary radiation belts generated by solar storms: three months, compared to the weeks we'd normally expect.

Subsequent solar storms in June and August of 2024 knocked most of the particles out of orbit, significantly diminishing the density of the belts. A small amount, however, still remains up there, hanging out with Earth. What's more, the proton belt may remain intact for over a year. Ongoing measurements will help scientists measure its longevity and decay rate.

This is important information to have: particles in Earth orbit can pose a hazard to satellites hanging out up there, so knowing the particle density and the effects solar storms can have thereon can help engineers design mitigation strategies to protect our technology. At the moment, though, the hazard posed by the new radiation belts is unquantified. Future studies will be needed to determine the risks these, and future belts, might pose.
The findings have been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.
ISS

NASA Plans Twitch Stream From ISS (theverge.com) 12

NASA is planning to host a live Twitch stream next week from the International Space Station (ISS). "The stream, which takes place on February 12th at 11:45AM ET on NASA's Twitch channel, will feature Don Pettit, an astronaut currently on the ISS, and Matt Dominick, who returned to Earth from the ISS in October," reports The Verge. From the report: The astronauts will discuss "daily life aboard the space station and the research conducted in microgravity" and viewers will be able to ask them questions, according to a blog post.

"This Twitch event from space is the first of many," Brittany Brown, director of the Office of Communications Digital and Technology Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington, says in the post. "We spoke with digital creators at TwitchCon about their desire for streams designed with their communities in mind, and we listened. In addition to our spacewalks, launches, and landings, we'll host more Twitch-exclusive streams like this one."

Earth

Air Pollution Reduces People's Ability To Focus on Everyday Tasks, Study Finds (theguardian.com) 34

A person's ability to focus on everyday tasks is affected by short-term exposure to air pollution, a study has found. The Guardian: Researchers analysed data from cognitive tests completed by 26 participants before and after they were exposed either to high levels of particulate matter (PM) using smoke from a candle, or clean air for an hour. The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, found that even brief exposure to high concentrations of PM affected participants' selective attention and emotion recognition -- regardless of whether they breathed normally or just through their mouth.

This can affect an individual's ability to concentrate on tasks, avoid distractions and behave in a socially appropriate way. "Participants exposed to air pollution were not as good at avoiding the distracting information," said Dr Thomas Faherty of the University of Birmingham, a co-author of the study. "So that means in daily life, you could get more distracted by things. Supermarket shopping is a good example ... it might mean that you get more distracted by impulse buys when you're walking along supermarket aisles because you're not able to focus on your task goals." The study also found that participants performed worse on cognitive tests evaluating emotional recognition after being exposed to PM air pollution.

Earth

Climate Change Target of 2C Is 'Dead' (theguardian.com) 175

An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Guardian: The pace of global heating has been significantly underestimated, according to renowned climate scientist Prof James Hansen, who said the international 2C target is "dead." A new analysis by Hansen and colleagues concludes that both the impact of recent cuts in sun-blocking shipping pollution, which has raised temperatures, and the sensitivity of the climate to increasing fossil fuels emissions are greater than thought. The group's results are at the high end of estimates from mainstream climate science but cannot be ruled out, independent experts said. If correct, they mean even worse extreme weather will come sooner and there is a greater risk of passing global tipping points, such as the collapse of the critical Atlantic ocean currents.

Hansen, at Columbia University in the US, sounded the alarm to the general public about climate breakdown in testimony he gave to a UN congressional committee in 1988. "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) defined a scenario which gives a 50% chance to keep warming under 2C -- that scenario is now impossible," he said. "The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise." The new analysis said global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045, unless solar geoengineering is deployed. [...] In the new study, published in the journal Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, Hansen's team said: "Failure to be realistic in climate assessment and failure to call out the fecklessness of current policies to stem global warming is not helpful to young people."

[...] Hansen said the point of no return could be avoided, based on the growing conviction of young people that they should follow the science. He called for a carbon fee and dividend policy, where all fossil fuels are taxed and the revenue returned to the public. "The basic problem is that the waste products of fossil fuels are still dumped in the air free of charge," he said. He also backed the rapid development of nuclear power. Hansen also supported research on cooling the Earth using controversial geoengineering techniques to block sunlight, which he prefers to call "purposeful global cooling." He said: "We do not recommend implementing climate interventions, but we suggest that young people not be prohibited from having knowledge of the potential and limitations of purposeful global cooling in their toolbox." Political change is needed to achieve all these measures, Hansen said: "Special interests have assumed far too much power in our political systems. In democratic countries the power should be with the voter, not with the people who have the money. That requires fixing some of our democracies, including the US."

Space

Could Earthquake Sensors Help Detect Falling Space Junk? (msn.com) 18

An anonymous reader shared this report from the Washington Post: Scientists have found that using seismometers is a new and inexpensive method to detect falling space junk, which can cause damage on impact and carry toxic materials — and may someday turn deadly...

It's not an easy task to track large hunks of falling metal everywhere in the world. Ground-based radar can detect falling objects, but it doesn't cover much of the world or is often classified data, said Ben Fernando [a planetary scientist at Johns Hopkins University who is leading this research]. The other option is through optical instruments, such as doorbell cameras, but the information on the time, size and speed can be limited. Instead, Fernando turned to seismology data. Stations located around the world live-stream data, which can be easily downloaded. Seismometers have been used to track meteors in the sky for over a century, but he said this is the first time he's aware of its use for tracking space debris.

Stations located around the world live-stream data, which can be easily downloaded. Seismometers have been used to track meteors in the sky for over a century, but he said this is the first time he's aware of its use for tracking space debris. Fernando first tested the idea to track the controlled reentry of NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission in September 2023, which brought back material from the asteroid Bennu. He set up seismometers along the capsule's path in the landing spot in Utah and measured its sonic boom. "It's a really good way of monitoring what's coming in, how often it's coming in, how big the things hitting the Earth are," said Fernando, who presented his results at the American Geophysical Union conference in December...

"The shockwave deforms the ground around the seismometer," said Fernando. "It also keeps ringing for a lot longer because all of that energy is bouncing around in the soil...." [H]e said an automated system could help detect these objects within moments of it appearing on the stations. In addition to detecting an event, the seismometers can help locate where any debris may have fallen. Tracking debris is important because some space debris can contain toxic materials that can harm the surrounding environment.

The article notes reports of the uncontrolled reentry into Earth's atmosphere of at least 951 objects larger than one square meter from 2010 to 2022.

"On average, objects heavier than 1,000 pounds came down about every 8 days... In fact, the threat of getting hit by uncontrolled orbital reentries has increased by a factor of four from 2010 to 2023, said Luciano Anselmo, who published a study assessing the risk."
Space

Asteroid Contains Building Blocks of Life, Say Scientists (bbc.com) 53

Mr. Dollar Ton shares a report from the BBC: The chemical building blocks of life have been found, among many other complex chemical compounds, in the grainy dust of an asteroid called Bennu, an analysis reveals. Samples of the space rock, which were scooped up by a Nasa spacecraft and brought to Earth, contain a rich array of minerals and thousands of organic compounds. These include amino acids, which are the molecules that make up proteins, as well as nucleobases -- the fundamental components of DNA. The findings are published in two papers in the journal nature.
Space

Astronomers Discover 196-Foot Asteroid With 1-In-83 Chance of Hitting Earth In 2032 84

Astronomers have discovered a newly identified asteroid that has a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, though the most likely scenario is a close miss. Designated as 2024 YR4, the asteroid measures in at 196 feet wide and is currently 27 million miles away. Space.com reports: The near-Earth object (NEO) discovered in 2024, which is around half as wide as a football field is long, will make a very close approach to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. It's estimated to come within around 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on that day, according to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS). However, when orbital uncertainties are considered, that close approach could turn out to be a direct hit on our planet.

Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst," or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground. This is enough to see asteroid 2024 YR4 leap to the top of the European Space Agency's NEO impact Risk List and NASA's Sentry Risk Table.
"People should absolutely not worry about this yet," said Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter David Rankin. "Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us."

As for where it could hit Earth, Rankin said that the "risk corridor" for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.

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