Is Linux's "Overall Market Share" Statistic Meaningful? 300
ruphus13 writes "Linux recently achieved 1% market share of the overall operating system market. But, does that statistic really mean anything useful? This article makes the case that it doesn't. It states, 'Framed in the "overall market share" terminology, the information (or how it was gathered and calculated) isn't necessarily questionable, it's more that it's meaningless. It's nebulous, even when one looks at several months worth of data. [How] Linux is used in various business settings answers an actual question — and the answer can be used to ask further questions, form opinions — and maybe one day even explain to some degree what 1% of the market share really means. ... Operating systems aren't immortal beings, and by rights, there can't be (there shouldn't be) only one. ... No one system can be everything to everyone, and no one system (however powerful, or stable) can do everything perfectly that just one person might require of it in the course of a day. While observing trends and measuring market share are important, the results (good or bad) shouldn't be any platform's measure of self-worth or validation. It's a data point to build on (we're weak in this area, strong in this area, our platform is being used a lot more this quarter, where did all of our users go?) in order to improve and stay relevant.'"
Statistical significance (Score:2, Informative)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistically_significant>
"In statistics, a result is called statistically significant if it is unlikely to have occurred by chance. "A statistically significant difference" simply means there is statistical evidence that there is a difference; it does not mean the difference is necessarily large, important, or significant in the common meaning of the word....
The significance level is usually represented by the Greek symbol, (alpha). Popular levels of significance are 5%, 1% and 0.1%. If a test of significance gives a p-value lower than the -level, the null hypothesis is rejected...."
Re:Quick response: No (Score:5, Informative)
If it was 1993, I would probably agree with you. However, the focus has been all about building market share for Linux for quite a long time now. Yes, many developers would work on it regardless of market share, but many others are working on it primarily because of its popularity. Personally, I think it's absurd to try and make Linux a Windows killer, but it seems like a large majority of the Linux community wants to make that happen. Sure, articles like these come along every so often when it's become obvious that Linux has once again failed to increase its share of the desktop market, but for the most part the community is still trying to beat Microsoft.
Linux is strong enough in the server market to allow me to make a living working with it. That's good enough for me. Yes, I use Linux on my own desktop (minus the Windows-clone desktop environments like Gnome and KDE), but I don't give a rip how many other people do. So long as Linux pays my bills, I'm happy. If everyone else wants to stick with Windows, that's fine by me. I still use Windows myself for things that require it, and I don't feel any kind of guilt for doing that.
Who cares? (Score:5, Informative)
Seriously, computing is about more than just desktop users.
How do various hobbyists, and I.T. professionals use Linux? It would be easier to count the niches that Linux is not filling. According to Netcraft, Apache still had over 50% web server market share, while IIS only had 30% in April 2009. I am sure there are some people running Apache on Windows, but I would venture a guess that it is not the majority.
Even webserver market share does not represent the whole server market share. Approximately 40% of all hardware in the server room where I work run Linux in some form, only 25% of all the servers run Linux. There are more than a dozen third party network appliances in this room. Third party examples I can think of are load balancers, spam firewalls, content servers, and NAS filers. I cannot think of one third party Windows Server based appliance in our server room, aside from servers. I am sure there are Windows appliances out there, just not in our server room. If it is part of Microsoft's mission to lock customers in to commodity desktop and server hardware, that is not something that really scales for vendors designing and selling specialized appliances and hardware.
How much Internet infrastructure runs on Linux? I wonder what the percentage of postfix/sendmail servers on Linux versus Exchange servers on Windows is? What is the number of external BIND DNS servers on Linux, versus external Windows DNS servers. What is the market share of Linux iptables/tc routers, load balancers, VPN gateways, or 3rd party appliance running Linux) versus Windows RRAS routers used in small and midsize offices? How many companies are using Asterisk versus the number of companies using Microsoft Office Communicator Suite (Not sure OCS qualifies as a PBX, though)? How many companies are virtualizing their data centers with VMWare ESX, Xen, or KVM, all running on Linux versus Microsoft HyperV?
How many consumer electronics devices have popped up with Linux on them, versus Windows? I can probably name 20 devices with an ARM processor, and some version of Linux running on it. Here is a short list: Linksys Wireless routers, webcams, Tivo, Roku, Netgear ReadyNas, Sony flatscreen televisions, POS terminals, etc. Windows mobile has notably made its way onto mobile phones and Wasp barcode scanners.
How about high-performance computing? How many Rocks clusters, and render farms are built on Linux versus Windows HPC servers?
Seriously who cares if Linux isn't prevalent on the desktop. Linux has filled every other niche, besides the desktop computer, six ways to Sunday. While Microsoft and Apple are laughing at a 1% desktop share, Linux is taking over every other niche which it is able to quickly evolve and adapt. World domination fast, indeed.
1% meaningless w/o info how the data was obtained (Score:2, Informative)
Compare this (this article is based on this data):
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/os-market-share.aspx?qprid=9
which doesn't give any hint how the data has been obtained with this:
http://www.heise.de/open/Linux-knackt-auf-dem-Desktop-die-1-Prozent-Marke--/news/meldung/137137
(Win XP: 55.5%, Linux: 14.8%, Vista: 14,4%, Apple: 7,7%)
with this:
http://www.handy-mc.de/handy-bestenliste/toplist-bewertung.html
Toshiba Portege G910 (#1), a handy which doesn't exist yet, is much more popular than the iPhone (#200).
There is a lot of nonsense floating around. Do not trust this data.
Drivers (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Statistical significance (Score:5, Informative)
What's tested here isn't a hypthesis, hell, there's even nothing being tested! This is a measurement of the installed base of different OSes. Now, you can argue about the the way it's measured, but expressing a marketshare as a ratio of the total sample has nothing to do with statistcal significance.
Re:of course it means something numbnuts (Score:3, Informative)
The truly interesting number for most people is the consumer or home user market.
Actually for me the interesting number is the number of schools and educational institutions that have, or are, implementing Skolelinux [debian.org] or Debian-Edu. Because in a way that means students at a, sometimes, early age starts out using Linux through their education.
Skolelinux, or other Liunux based educational operating systems, might not be widely adapted in a major way; but there are a growing number of schools in, and a few outside, Europe using it at the moment. I'd say that anyone gaining familiarity with a Linux based system through years of basic and advanced education could, given time, contribute to a far higher marked share for Linux based home operating systems a few years down the line.
Re:of course it means something numbnuts (Score:3, Informative)
I've been using Linux on the desktop since '01, and I can for certain that around 2004 or was when I could visit random sites and have them work without any issues. There are two that I know of that "require" a browser/OS combo, but they let you carry on any way - at your own risk. Of course, they work fine. One is HR Block when filing taxes, the other is CitiCard's virtual/temporary CC# generator webapp.
1%, 10%, 90% Is Enough For Me (Score:3, Informative)
Linux has enough market share that there are 10s of thousands of people supporting it. Linux has enough market share that I get an outstanding Desktop OS. An OS that I gladly pay for through donations and purchasing vendor products. Linux has enough market share to provide me with the most stable, safe and feature rich platform available. It has enough market share that Linksys, nVidia and other high-end hardware manufactures support it.
1%, 10% or 90%... Linux has enough market share for me.
-[d]-
Re:Ridiculous. (Score:3, Informative)
Perhaps you should read more than the first few chapters of HHGTTG. You've apparently not read the rest of the book, the other 2 books or heard anything about the movie or the radio show.
Marvin went straight into production.
Vogons don't lie, they are vicious and callous, and most important everything about them is ugly. They wouldn't make anythink 'slick'