2009, Year of the Linux Delusion 696
gadgetopia writes "An article has come out claiming (yet again) that 2009 will be the year of Linux, and bases this prediction on the fact that low-power ARM processors will be in netbooks which won't have enough power to run Windows, but then says these new netbooks will be geared to 'web only' applications which suits Linux perfectly. And, oh yeah, Palm might save Linux, too." The article goes on to skewer the year of Linux thing that seems to show up on pretty much every tech news site throughout December and January as lazy editors round out their year with softball trolling stories and "Year End Lists." We should compile a year-end list about this :)
Linux is already everywhere (Score:3, Interesting)
This is one of those dumb statistics battles that simply ignores all of the low-power devices out there that are already running Linux. Compare that with WinCE devices and prepare to be dumbfounded by the success of Linux.
The longer I use Linux as my primary desktop, the more I'm convinced that getting into a speeds-and-feeds battle with Apple and Microsoft is a horrible idea. A financially successful desktop distro would destroy the variety of distros out there.
Fortunately, big-box retail is such a losers game that only the inexperienced would attempt to keep a Linux distro on the shelf. How's that Ubuntu distro doing at Worst Buy??
Re: Linux hitting new, innovative spaces... (Score:5, Interesting)
So I've seen a few projects lately that really hit home for this, as well as a couple of generalizations. General stuff first.
The really basic, broad one is "audio editing in linux." I don't know if other people follow it like me, but the number of tools, good, quality tools, available these days are staggering, and it seems like this year was the year that all of them came into their own, maturity wise. Ardour, the Calf plugins, etc.
Another generic space that is seeing huge strides is graphics. GIMP going GEGL is a huge milestone, and will make making high quality graphics apps in linux far easier in general, as we're moving a big chunk of that work to a generic lib. nice.
But the real killers for me, that are hugely differentiated, are neither of those things. One is Beremiz [beremiz.org], which is an open source automation framework that just pulls together existing open source software to create something new and amazing.
The other is Fritzing [fritzing.org], which makes it easy to take an arduino project from prototype to production.
These are world-changers, and I don't even think many people are aware of them yet.
-Josh
Re:Save Linux? (Score:3, Interesting)
On the "Year of Linux meme" (Score:4, Interesting)
There will be no year of Linux where Linux goes from 0.9% to 100%, that's a myth but 1/3 of the netbook are sold with Linux.
Which is way higher that the percentage of Linux in the general population.
Then again, Microsoft was surprised by the NetBook success and they're restrained by the anti-trust lawsuit but I expect them to find a way to reduce Linux marketshare on the netbooks.
Re:Criterions? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
I got a Mac laptop a few years back - I got it more for the physical design than anything else. It was a little weird using a Mac (after rarely using them since the early 90's), but I got used to it. I also clocked a lot of hours on a more powerful desktop Mac at work. I'd say that's given me plenty of time to get used to the difference between a Mac and a Windows box.
Windows used to piss me off to no end - constantly crashing, making me lose my work. It's been a while since that's been the case though - of course, I'm still an XP user with no intent on migrating to Vista in the near future. I've got a lot of the "cool" features turned off - no transparency, no fade-in boxes or menus, and a generally stripped-down interface.
On the hardware side, I love Macs. Except for the prices I've paid for them, I prefer all my Mac hardware to Windows (except for mice - a single-button mouse is a good example of art over function. I quit using single-button mice on a mac years ago, and hate being stuck on someone else's).
But the operating system, while pretty, just doesn't do it for me - even after years of using it. The standard GUI is too simple to suit my needs, and it's advanced interfaces aren't so well designed as the alternatives. I got to like both KDE and Gnome quickly (they just suffer from a lack of decent apps to make them worth my using them), but I still see Macs, software-wise, as belonging in the domain of unskilled users, and techies who use them just to use a Mac.
All the same, I hope Macs have a bright future - if nothing else than to drive their competition.
patching kernels.. (Score:2, Interesting)
you know, i've messed with this Linux stuff off and on, was a totally avid user for years.. but if you ever want to get something accomplished, that doesn't involve web browsing, email, or running servers, you're probably going to want to run some other (commercial) operating system.
This post is called "patching kernels" because the first time I ever booted Linux, well over a decade ago, I had to write kernel patches just to get the thing fully running. The sad, sad fact, is that if I wanted to boot Linux today, I would need to do the same thing.
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
Netbooks shipping with Ubuntu default and Dell shipping Linux pre-packaged pretty much says that it's starting to become a serious contender in the consumer OS market.
It has a long way to go, but the ball is definitely rolling.
Re:Think Different! (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
And the people making that argument always fail to include the same thing: a single idea on what different/new thing Linux developers are supposed to include.
Because every time Linux has done something different it's never gained traction. The innovations from Linux don't come from widespread appeal and revolutionary ideas; usually it comes from old-fashioned principles that are being ignored. Windows Server for years was unable to be administered well from the command line, whereas with linux servers the command line was the only way to administer it. Windows ignored user permissions until XP and didn't really start pushing them until Vista, whereas in Linux user permissions have been strict and remained the same for years. Windows goes for flash over performance, Linux makes sure to do both. The strength and innovation in Linux is that it sticks to its principles and makes sure that it does the job right time after time.
I think 2008 already was the year of the Linux desktop. It wasn't as big and flashy as everyone hoped, but for the first time I've seen a non-computer geek running Linux on their laptop-- not for any political or ideological issues, but because it was cheap and easy and did everything they needed.
I couldn't agree more. It was certainly the year of the linux desktop for me and my family. Netbooks are expanding, desktop distros like Ubuntu are gaining traction and mindshare, and OSS projects like Firefox are gaining ground in ways that couldn't have been imagined 5 years ago. Linux isn't a power on the desktop and may never reach that point, but this was the year when Linux expanded its potential users more than any other and it was noticed in a big way. If there really is ever a year of the linux desktop, it'll be deeply indebted to the foundation that was laid this year.
Re:Linux is already everywhere (Score:5, Interesting)
I know that some people will say that "Your TV doesn't count because nobody knows it runs linux". It's presence in their TVs and Movie players and toasters and refrigerators will eventually come to their attention. They won't be interested, but when Linux gets spoken, it will no longer sound completely foreign. They will have seen the name in user manuals and configuration screens.
When a geek comes over to help them with their computer and suggest linux, the geek can point out the 5 or 6 other devices they have in the house that run linux, and the average Joe will see it less like an obscure nerd toy, and more like a new brand that they have never heard of.
There was no "Year of the Linux Server" either. (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Humm good title (Score:3, Interesting)
I don't want my OS to be friendly. I want it to be obedient.
I agree, and it reminds me of something that happened a year or so ago. I run Gentoo Linux on my laptop and I'm the only person in my office not running XP (and now a few are running Vista). I like XP ok, but my co-workers find it strange that I stick with Linux. One day I was showing someone a video on my system when the ALSA sound drives hosed. Happed every once in a while in KDE, so I said "Let me fix this first" and I restarted alsasound.
My coworker said "Heh, I thought Linux was perfect."
I replied. "Nope. But let me ask you a question. If your sound drivers died in Windows XP, how would you restart them without rebooting the box?"
He had nothing else to say. I like the flexibility and control with Linux. I want to completely own the systems I use. Just my 2 cents.
dH
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
No one has come up with the "database driven file systems" we were all promised years ago
This has been one of my research projects for 16 years. Recently, I've published a library [newphoria.de] that can be used for implementing one. It doesn't suffer from the same problems as earlier prototypes (that I didn't publish b/c they had limited use, but I might anyway someday). Most notably, because it's written in C++ with portability in mind, it possesses quite some powerful abilities. I have some even more powerful concepts ready that I might integrate into the library one day.
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem isn't that Linux is copying Windows. It's that it's copying it badly. I make it a practice to alternate between Windows, Linux and Mac and really use them, so that I can get a sense of what is good and bad about them.
Currently, where Linux shines is the command line, and the package managers (I'm biased toward Debian). The GUIs work, mostly, but they aren't nearly as stable as Windows Vista, and they don't add any real value that Vista doesn't have.
Vista shines in that it's stable, and reasonably pretty. That's really about it. If you aren't a Windows power user, it's perfectly usable (if you are you might prefer XP, because it's less secure, and thus less troublesome at least until it gets infected). I find it pretty hard to get anything done on it though without installing Cygwin, which is a bit of a cheat.
Mac OS X shines in that it's pretty, stable, and reasonably easy to use. And the command line doesn't suck, although package management isn't anywhere near as good as Debian/Ubuntu. OS X also seems to have the best media support, as long as you don't care about playing Windows Media Player files (I don't).
Linux could clean Windows' clock if the GUI were more dependable. Right now it's pretty good, but occasionally falls flat on its face. Bluetooth support isn't dependable, and even networking support isn't 100% dependable at the GUI level. So of the three operating systems, unfortunately Linux is the one I find most frustrating to depend on on a day-to-day basis, even though it's the one I am rooting for.
Re:Think Different! (Score:5, Interesting)
In every thread that in any message board where anyone had declared "the year of Linux on the deskop", someone has tried to argue that "the problem with Linux" is that Linux developers are just trying to copy Windows. And the people making that argument always fail to include the same thing: a single idea on what different/new thing Linux developers are supposed to include.
Here's the beginning of an idea for you: if you were to implement the ultimate Google Apps PC, which relies on a web browser for word editing, presentations, etc. Would it look like IE and a start menu, or could you make it really seamless?
In other words: I use my computer more and more just to interact online, not so much to run applications locally on my machine. But every OS out there still thinks of the web as just another program. Can't we do better?
--
fairsoftware.net [fairsoftware.net] -- home of the Software Bill of Rights
The Revolution Will Not Be Popular (Score:5, Interesting)
If we keep copying whatever Microsoft implemented 3 years ago, we'll never pass them... What we need are real killer applications in completely new spaces.
Yeah, yeah, people keep saying that. In every thread that in any message board where anyone had declared "the year of Linux on the deskop", someone has tried to argue that "the problem with Linux" is that Linux developers are just trying to copy Windows. And the people making that argument always fail to include the same thing: a single idea on what different/new thing Linux developers are supposed to include.
But the fact is, it's never that easy to come up with a revolutionary idea, and it's often not necessary. What most people use their computers for is still web surfing, email, the word processor, and maybe storing music and pictures. If Linux is enabling people to do those things easily, reliably, and without frustration, then it has already "passed" Windows.
I'd like to add to this my perspective:
First off, if every Linux application developer sets themselves to the task of making their program innovative in some way, you'll wind up with a bunch of different innovative designs - and they may not all fit in with each other. Useful innovation requires clear leadership on the form that innovation will take - and for that clear leadership, striking out in an exciting new direction, to actually yield a good result across a wide range of software, that requires a lot of good thought about the problem, combined with experimentation to see how the design plays out.
Now, combine that with a second factor: when something new and different comes along that's better than what came before, people aren't necessarily going to flock to it right away. To some extent people enjoy staying with what's familiar to them. This is where really good PR and advertising comes in handy. It's not enough to create an exciting new product, you have to get people to use it.
The latter is a problem I've thought a lot about: I want to create a new Unix shell, quite different from the typical ones. I believe it will be a big improvement - but I also recognize that, once it's written, it's going to be an uphill battle to get people to use it.
Basically, when you're talking about "innovation" there is a big advantage to being the company who controls the de-facto standard OS in the computing world - able to make almost any change to the OS without significant fear of losing business, with the resources to make these changes carefully and to get people to embrace them as well. Now, that doesn't mean it always works out right or that Microsoft's designs are always the best for everyone - just that Microsoft has a kind of power to make and promote change that is difficult for Free Software to match.
One final point - I am a big advocate of the idea that, despite common ideas about UI design, a UI isn't (and perhaps can't be) "one size fits all". Most commonly applications are targeted at "normal" users - people who are normally expected to be content within a somewhat limited range of functionality, so long as it's easy and it works right. I think there is room in the world for applications targeted at users like myself - people who are happy to see things like scripting interfaces to an application not only present, but reflected within the UI itself (as in Emacs, for instance). There is not always a huge overlap between these groups and one does not need to "take over" the other. In that sense, the innovative side of Linux is as a proving ground of experimental code for this kind of user. If I can have that, plus be able to watch my video files without issues, then I'm a happy Linux user.
(And speaking of playing video without issues - trying to innovate before getting basic functionality like that working is, in my opinion, the wrong way to go about it... Functionality first - then get fancy...)
Re:Think Different! (Score:4, Interesting)
On the other hand, computer's don't scare me. They scare my mom. And when I envision giving my mom a linux computer I also see one day in the future where she's trying to install some suborn piece of hardware or software and it's bad. I mean, she probably didn't check to see if it's compatible in the first place (because she probably didn't know she had to), but the long and short if it is that it will come back to me. And then I shall have to utter the words that will send my poor mom fleeing from linux forevermore - "Open a term, we need to edit a conf file". Or worse - "Open a term, we need to set some boot parameters".
Don't get me wrong - I love...LOVE that I can do that soft of thing. I love that when I have some problem I can run to a forum and find the answer. I love that I CAN do it....I hate that I often HAVE to do it.
Ok slashdot...I just made a comment that suggested that Linux was not perfect and not for everyone. Let the insults begin. I'm a microsoft shill. I'm stupid and bad a computers. My mother was a hamster and my father smelled of elderberries. Continue as you see fit.
Re:Think Different! (Score:1, Interesting)
...
Windows goes for flash over performance, Linux makes sure to do both.
Uh, if Linux actually made sure to do both flash and performance you would be able to administer it from the command line and the GUI.
It was my year for Linux on the laptop too, after a piece of hardware in my lappy broke and I couldn't get Windows XP to install. I like Linux alot for alot of reasons, but there are still some aspects to it that are downright infuriating.
Hey, Ubuntu, you haven't quite figured out a way sensibly handle legacy software that requires root permissions. Your "Cancel or Allow"esque abomination works ok for GUI stuff that is built to incorperate it, but it breaks so many apps that I have already learned to hate it.
So even Ubuntu, imo the best distro out there is still gimped by outmoded thinking that only covers their own smaller world. Don't even get me started on how unnecessarily hard it is to get rpm packages to work. Yes, you can do it an it's not too hard but I see 8 extra steps that should never have been necessary.
Sigh.. another year where Linux is almost ready for the desktop.
Re:Humm good title (Score:3, Interesting)
I've been a professional SA for over 19 years. I've worked professionally (i.e. been paid) with Linux, HP-UX, Solaris, Irix, Windows (NT, 2k 2k3). My favorites have been Linux and Irix followed closely by HP-UX. I respect Solaris but it's not my style.
Windows, on the other hand, makes me want to scream and tear my hair out. In fact, I was once so frustrated with Windows that I engaged in an extended verbal outburst for about five minutes in a work environment.
I really want to like Windows, it's pervasive, it's pretty, and it's fairly responsive on a fast system. But I can't. I hate it. I don't normally hate "things." Attitudes, sure. People, sometimes. But things; only Windows. I really, really hate windows, and using it make me feel bad. I don't know exactly why.
Killer architecture (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Foundations (Score:3, Interesting)
I'm a midline user of Windows, and I'm interested in Linux. However, it really feels like a foreign language with the culture shock that implies.
It feels like I'm in a weird class of exceptions "who don't count". I have a typical install of uBuntu Dapper Drake.
I want to upgrade Firefox, and it simply JustDoesn'tWork.
I get cascading layers of other dependencies to upgrade. Sorry, but for nervous newcomers, that's hard. For what is arguably a flagship transition-to-Linux app (Firefox), I find that really frustrating.
Re: Linux hitting new, innovative spaces... (Score:4, Interesting)
My dad runs a robotics engineering company that he started in my home, and I've been involved in quite a bit of work on projects for Honda, Hyundai, Daimler-Chrysler, etc., PLC programming generally, although I've done tons of build and wiring jobs for him as well. Medical devices as well. Pretty much done the industrial automation thing from a hobbyist perspective my whole life.
A few things: I think this provides the average guy, immediately, with an intuitive (and scalably awesome) way to build his HID, as well as run it. The "any computer is a PLC, or two or three" concept is very nice, as virtualizing PLCs and just using ladder logic on 'interconnected' bits in software is just obvious as hell. I'm not suggesting a robot at a Hyundai plant will run on this software tomorrow, but telling a guy "here's a kit, you can make some awesomeness with it. And it's free, just put it on that spare PC you have." is powerful, extremely. It's like Arduino gone a bit more hardcore.
Anyway, I'm a huge believer in empowering individuals for big results though.
Re:I'm intrigued by your ideas. (Score:3, Interesting)
A few things. First off, I run 64-bit everywhere. I think I might suggest that people that don't need it just run 32 bit still, a few things that are nice (flash, etc.) still suck a bit in 64 bit. It all works, but stuff's crappier than is necessary.
Secondly: install Ubuntu Studio and make sure you're running a realtime kernel. Look in the Audio/Video menu. Click each item and fiddle with it one day, won't take an hour.
Ardour is a very nice environment. Hydrogen is a badass drum machine. Jokosher is kind of garage band-esque. There's a good place to start.
Write a song on your acoustic while writing the drums in hydrogen. Eventually, record the drums out of hydrogen and import that as a track in jokosher or ardour. Record on top of that with your guitar. I'm still waiting on my multi-input awesome-card (I forget what the part number is, ask me after christmas and I'll tell you. knewter at gmail, if you want.) So right now I'm just at the 'use hydrogen and play acoustic' step on this rig. But in general it all works fine, and again hydrogen is great.
-Josh
Re:Think Different! (Score:4, Interesting)
That's why many people have started using Macs. Yes, they cost more but they are the best of both worlds.
Yes, but one of those worlds is a steaming pile of shit. :)
I have to agree with LithiumX: OSX isn't nearly as usable as it could be. It needs way more configurability esp with the mouse, Spaces, and "window manager" functionality. I think most users don't know what they're missing or only use Windows as a basis for comparison.
(I'd love to see the mouse tune itself based on usage, but I don't think anyone does that.)
My favorite feature: two-finger scroll. This is excellent. This is the one and only thing I miss when I go back to my Linux laptop.
That being said, the only area where I could imagine Linux eating Apple's lunch is in the $200 three-task netbook department, but Apple won't ever play in that space anyway for price reasons.
People like macs because they look good. This is seriously something to consider esp if you want to cater to the coffee shop crowd. If I were Apple I would definitely not want a cool sub-$400 Linux laptop on the market.
You can get it if you really want . . . (Score:3, Interesting)
If Linux wants to get big like Windows, then Linux needs to create a development environment that encourages closed-source, intellectual property loving, for profit software developers.
If this is anathema to the true GNU believers, then they are merely being shortsighted. Linux is already better than Windows. Any idiot can see that. Developers use Windows because they think that they can make money in Windows. When developers don't use Linux, the reason must be that the developers don't think that they can make money using Linux.
The Linux community should stop focusing on making cool Linux programs (for now). The community should devote most of its new effort to creating a development environment that makes it trivially easy to port a Windows or Mac program to Linux.
Windows was successful because it cultivated closed-source developers. Linux will only become that successful if it also cultivates closed source developers. This is screamingly obvious.
Once the closed source developers migrate to Linux, then Linux gets really interesting and political. It may not remain the same techno-elite benevolent dictatorship that it is now, but it will be interesting! The techno-elite can then reap the benefits of the GPL by harvesting improvements of GPL'd Linux code that are made at the behest of the for-profit closed source people.
In other words, EMBRACE for-profit-closed-source developers. EXTEND them a generous and profitable helping hand that allows them to port their products to Linux. EXTINGUISH Windows, when they--and their users--figure out how much better the Linux world is.
Re:Think Different! (Score:3, Interesting)
Just curious. Did you ever get into (option|control|command) clicking things? That is actually one of the things I miss the most about Mac OS X since moving to linux. I really liked being able to option click outside of a window to hide a whole application. There there is option clicking the close button or minimize button to hide all of the application windows.
Of course, I love alt-middle-click for resizing windows and alt-left-click to move windows on linux now that I have learned them and would miss them if I started using my old Mac again. It took me about 4 years to get really comfortable with linux. It wasn't until the last year that I started finding the little things that I can't live without.
Re:I remeber the year of the network. (Score:3, Interesting)
> There is no good way to sell a $12 program on Linux or even a $49.95 program on Linux.
Forget the $12 program. Anything that simple is going to be looking over it's shoulder for a free verison to show up at sourceforge. The $49-$99 range could be an interesting niche.
> I think RedHat has given up on the Desktop.
They have never tried for it so that can't have given up. They do go for the workstation market, and appear to make good coin at it. But if you are hankering to push some $49 apps that probably isn't your market. So yea, just go for Ubuntu and perhaps offer a statically linked tarball for everyone else and a Wiki so users can post howtos. At least until you prove a market.
> I still think they need a software store like iTunes and the Google Android store to complete the ecosystem.
If Mr. Shuttleworth thought there was money in it for him one would exist. If you believe in the idea there isn't anything stopping you from building it though. If you build it, perhaps the developers will come.
One problem I see is you will either be putting out a ton of one or two package repos, one for each offering or will need to to get really clever on the server side. So here ya go, for free. A simple Yum plugin would do it for the rpm side, but you can still pull it off with .deb and apt. You generate a custom repo URL for each customer. When apt wants to see if anything new is available you generate the repo metadata on the fly for that customer so they only see what they have the rights to download.
If you could get some buyin from PackageKit you could show everything but stick a big $ (eventually localized to the local currency symbol) by products that would require an extra charge. Then you either do your checks at download time or let everybody download but require a license key to do more than see a demo/timed trial.
So how to pull it off? I'd suggest the Google/Moz Corp angle. Offer the packagekit and/or the distros a small taste if they include a version of PackageKit supporting your store's extensions and your repo enabled by default. Again, your odds of inclusion improve if you make your extension an open documented standard. The odds improve again if you have compelling content to offer. Arguments about clutter would tend to fall on deaf ears, when there are already 10,000+ packages in a modern distro adding a few hundred commercial apps shouldn't be a problem, especially since any user who isn't interested can simply remove the checkmark besides your commercial repo. Talk about an opportunity, if something like Quickbooks were ported and available in the package manager listed right where similar apps are listed, if it didn't sell it would prove once and for all low dollar commercial apps just aren't viable on Linux. Maybe if GNUCash and MoneyDance are listed for $0 along woth Quicken/Quickbooks people would pick the free one every time. But even though I personally try to be as RMS Pure as possible I suspect something like Quicken, if it were known to be a good solid port, would indeed move units.