What Will Linux Be Capable Of, 3 Years Down the Road? 679
An anonymous reader writes "In a prediction of the open-source future, InfoWeek speculates on What Linux Will Look Like In 2012. The most outlandish scenario foresees Linux forsaking its free usage model to embrace more paid distros where you get free Linux along with (much-needed) licenses to use patent-restricted codecs. Also predicted is an advance for the desktop based on — surprise — good acceptance for KDE 4. Finally, Linux is seen as making its biggest imprint not on the PC, but on mobile devices, eventually powering 40 million smartphones and netbooks. Do you agree? And what do you see for Linux in 4 years?"
About like it does now. (Score:5, Interesting)
Linux hasn't had any major changes in the past three years, why would you think it'll have any in the next three?
Re:Drivers (Score:2, Interesting)
it'll be in things like toasters. (Score:5, Interesting)
I can see linux being on a 2-4 GB flash card and the "computer" being the same size and the entire device running inside your tv, LCD picture frames, microwave oven, toaster, refrigator, dishwasher, washing machine, dryer, or your air conditioner. The price for the computer and storage will be like $2-5 on the bulk side so that cost has to be able to be hidden in the products. Linux'll be running all sorts of things that you never really figured even needed a computer per se or even 2-4 GB of storage. What the heck does my dishwasher or toaster need 2 Gb of storage for? Well, we'd find out when it's "cheap enough" to through in everything. Licensing and cost is what'll get Linux in the door and keep MS out. MS just can't afford to give away MS embedded edition.
Of course Linux will run on things like cell phones and DVRs as well, but you'll shortly find it running things like McDonalds' toys as well. What could a McDonalds' Toy use Linux for? I haven't a clue, but, once the hardware is cheap enough, we'll find out.
Re:Drivers: HUH? (Score:3, Interesting)
I find that Linux, and especially Ubuntu has much better support, and behaves better than Windows XP.
Mass Storage devices: just plug in, and they are ready to go very quickly. No need to install drivers if you plug it into a different port.
GPS: same, it emulates a serial device so that GPSBabel can handle it easily.
My odd mouse [thinkgeek.com] had drivers built into the kernel by Ubuntu, there was no "insert CD to use this mouse" stage.
And that is on an AMD64 Ubuntu computer. How is the driver support in Vista 64-bit?
Ubuntu on my HP/Intel laptop found everything just fine, and the Wifi even worked in the LiveCD installer.
Re:Drivers? Codecs? (Score:4, Interesting)
The patent situation will be a non-issue in 2012. All the major codec patents expire within the next 3 years, including MP3.
Binary drivers are also becoming less of an issue. Nvidia and Broadcom are the last two holdouts. Nvidia is doing a good job of driving themselves into bankruptcy, and since every other major wireless chipset manufacturer now has open-source drivers, you can just not buy Broadcom.
more importantly, is there linux w/o linus? (Score:4, Interesting)
This probably won't be an issue by 2012, but it will be interesting to see how linux fares when Linux and/or people like Andrew Morton are eventually forced to remove themselves from the day-to-day maintenance of the kernel. We saw what happened to ReiserFS when it lost its namesake. In that situation, it was easy to chuck ReiserFS in the trash because there were several other mature alternatives. If/when Linus dies/retires, does Linux adoption falter?
Re:About like it does now. (Score:3, Interesting)
Linux hasn't had any major changes in the past three years, why would you think it'll have any in the next three?
Sure it has, just not for the desktop. The reason some believe it might improve more over the next few years is that companies are starting to use it as the pre-installed OS on low-end and low-power systems. Those companies have a direct, financial incentive to spend money on making it a better desktop OS.
Easy questions in the summary. (Score:3, Interesting)
Linux forsaking its free usage model to embrace more paid distros
The two are not mutually exclusive.
where you get free Linux along with (much-needed) licenses to use patent-restricted codecs
As if. Just because the US has a broken patent system. Or was that the whole world? Ih wait, the US is the whole world.
Also predicted is an advance for the desktop based on â" surprise â" good acceptance for KDE 4.
Whether you like it or not, GNOME will be the big one, because nobody controls it. With Nokia owning Trolltech, no other company (whose primary business is not Linux itself) will touch KDE. I know that's not justified, but don't expect large corporations to care.
Finally, Linux is seen as making its biggest imprint not on the PC, but on mobile devices, eventually powering 40 million smartphones and netbooks.
That's clearly the future. The question is - besides having Linux as the kernel, will the phone of the future be any different? Will free userspace triumph on phones, or are we going to see locked-down Linux? That's the interesting and harder question.
And what do you see for Linux in 4 years?
Let's see... a kernel that supports the latest hardware and runs the latest software?
The article is nonsense, but the discussion should be good.
Linux in flash BIOS (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:KDE4 (Score:5, Interesting)
I think we're going to see that Plasma/Plasmoids are the genius invention that will propel innovation. They will do for the desktop what Compiz/Beryl/Compiz-Fusion plugins have done for the window manager: let loads of programmers make up innovative or simply good-looking things they can do.
This, of course, will lead to a boom that will result in a few really good Plasmoids that will draw in additional effort and lots of crappy ones. But I think by 2012 everyone will look back and wonder how they once got along back when XYZ had to be a whole custom application written in C instead of a Plasmoid or Plasmoid containment written in C/C++, Python, Ruby, or any other language with KDE4 bindings.
GNOME will have at least started moving in such a direction, but will have more restrictions to make sure the system stays easy to use.
LTS under Ubunutu (Score:1, Interesting)
Stability.
I'll still be running Ubuntu 8.04.x LTS in production, so the future is here now.
With slightly better virtualization support.
LTS - Long Term Support ... will still be free.
I predict something completely different (Score:4, Interesting)
People who use "desktop" computing, your days are numbered... I just have no idea what that number may be. ;)
With this interest in cloud computing growing, I predict that specific-purpose devices will be used and linked in through various networking technologies (mobile phones, wi-fi, bluetooth, ethernet, something that hasn't been thought of yet, quantum link networking, whatever) to personal servers. These personal servers will be without a direct user interface although us hackers will still have terminals to connect to them to do our hacking and developing, but our personal devices will all link to our personal servers using whatever means is available to do so that is appropriate and capable for the application we're using. The fact that our personal servers will run Linux will be irrelevant to most people... it'll just work or not work.
All of our personal devices will be from various manufacturers using a similar pool of networking technologies that, hopefully Microsoft will not have patented or controlled in some way, and serve our purposes accordingly. For most people, they will simply have their TVs, phones, mobile phones and gaming consoles linked through our personal servers and the public network infrastructure. The rest of us will continue using laptops and desktops because we're busy developing, hacking, analyzing and all that sort of thing.
Business apps will continue to follow similar models of client/server because business cares where their data is stored and what network channels are allowed to access it. I don't care how "non-evil" Google is, they aren't going to store my company's data. They just AREN'T.
But it is because Linux works SO well in dedicated devices (especially hand-held) this is where Linux will grow the most. I find it difficult to predict whether or not it will be proprietary and/or restricted protocols that will interconnect our devices to our personal servers, but I can only hope the protocol will be open for all to use without being worried about getting sued and crap like that.
I predict an environment where it will be the device that is important to users, and not the OS that runs on them. This will make the OS a bit less relevant to all but the gadget-hackers. Microsoft will be a player in this scheme, and they will likely their their interoperability monkey-wrench into everything they can... business as usual for Microsoft... but as long as they don't buy laws that restrict people from making stuff compatible with Microsoft's crap, then, like Samba, we'll all be fine in the end. (But then again, there's the lords of copyright to interfere with this notion... technologies "forbidden" to work with like DVDCSS on our personal networks... who knows.)
New frontiers (Score:3, Interesting)
- Usability: will be one of main objectives for developing things for it, including new widely available devices like multitouch screens.
- Mobility: cheap and powerful for today standards cellphones based on linux (Android, LiMo, whatever) probably will be the most used. Not sure if will be market for tablets/subnotebooks/etc or cellphones will take that role, in any case, probably linux will be the most used core OS for those devices.
- Embeddable: It happens now, it will happen far more then. Internet will be the main reason for this.
- Security, linux will be more attacked, specially in preinstalled computers, cellphones and devices.
Re:About like it does now. (Score:3, Interesting)
Why? They say the same thing about FreeBSD and yet I'm using it as my desktop. And it does a damn fine job of that. Not as good as Linux, but that's mainly because of Flash, somewhat limited wine support and the nVidia binary drivers not being updated for amd64.
Linux does a pretty good job as is. I'll have to boot back into it to really check how the amd64 support is, but I'd doubt that it's too bad at this point. The amount of effort it takes to find hardware that support either Linux or *BSD these days is pretty minimal and most commercial software either runs on wine or has a good alternative.
Re:Drivers (Score:4, Interesting)
Having trouble with ATI or nVidia drivers? Don't blame Linux, blame ATI and nVidia for not releasing the specs so that OSS drivers can be written. All you get is binary blobs, which is better than you get for the newer Lexmark printers because Lexmark refuses to support Linux.
Re:maybe it'll be like ms word? (Score:4, Interesting)
Sadly, it looks like KParts is the closest Linux has come to adding functionality to multiple apps. With OS X, Apple implemented system services, so adding grammar checking in 10.5 for all apps was just adding one service and it works nearly everywhere (including this text box I'm typing in). With KParts, the best they can do is add a standard grammar checking library and hope developers building apps for KDE will incorporate it in the next version of that app. I'm uncertain if user training of grammar checking from within one application will be able to easily make a difference in other applications as well (the way it does in OS X).
Don't exaggerate. Whenever you use a text edit box in KDE, there's default actions like select all, cut, copy, paste that all work alike in every KDE application. All they'd have to do is add spell check as standard to the KDElibs (or Qt) and all applications in KDE would "magically" get a spell checker. Probably same for GNOME and they could certainly use the same dictionary files etc. The rest well it's not there, but I see how it could be added without drastic effort. QT has support for plugins, create a "services" plugin dir that'll dynamically load those and add a standard menu option to send something to a service. If it's really as useful as you claim, it's probably something that will happen...
Re:KDE4 (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Think Antarctica (Score:5, Interesting)
I agree 100% - wild and cute enough to make you want to play with it.
Linux has laid the foundation.
Firefox has taken good care of our browsing.
OpenOffice + Google docs have given us portable information.
KDE 4 has given us a flashy desktop, GNOME has given us a simple yet powerful one - both are beautiful in their own right.
VLC/Mplayer have given us independence of video formats.
Linux + Firefox + KDE 4/GNOME + OpenOffice + VLC/Mplayer = desktop independence. Only piece of the puzzle left is gaming. Once we have gaming, drivers on Linux (for anything consumer oriented atleast) will no longer be a problem. I definitely see that happening within the next 3 years, but we as a Linux community HAVE TO back whichever video card manufacturer gives us the best Linux drivers. Make them work for our cash and very soon, Linux will be a standard platform to release for.
You might be just right about that. (Score:5, Interesting)
Here's a conversation I found from a fedora discussion [fedoraproject.org]:
Non linear ogg editor/ screencast helper
Status: Proposed
Summary of idea: Still we are missing a good non linear editor for ogg videos. This can be a simple GUI based application to do non linear editing of ogg. Like cutting, mixing the videos. Adding still frames to the video etc. Though this is not a project to be finished within 2-3 months, but we should be able to have a basic application running to do simple edits. May be having feature of upload videos to fedoratv or integrate itself with recordmydesktop to get screencasts directly. I am looking for more ideas on this.
Contacts: KushalDas kushaldas AT fedoraproject {NOSPAM} DOT org
Notes: Recommended choice of language is Python or C
ValentTurkovic: I have 2 suggestions; First is to try and resurrect Diva Project who started as GSC project in 2006. Second is to work with Pitivi Project because it is on a good path and has ogg editing functionality and easy enough interface. To get an overview of this Diva Project rise and fall please read these two posts. UPDATE: There are two projects that look promissing: saya-videoeditor [2 [blogspot.com]] and myvideoeditor [3 [blogspot.com]]
So between these and Cinelerra's successor, Lumiera [lumiera.org], I'm sure 4 years will be more than enough to have an actually usable professional Video Editor for Linux.
And I think that these 4 years will give Krita and GIMP the time they need to become full-featured and more user-friendly, respectively.
(And don't get me started on WINE, these guys are advancing fast!)
Re:Drivers (Score:2, Interesting)
I'm not a Linux hater in any way. I WANT to have a full Linux desktop... but not Linux still has issues that does not make it a logical decision for some users.
I understand that you can't blame Linux for driver support, but it's something that NEEDS to be fixed before you can stand on the corner and tell people to install Linux. Saying "install Linux only if you research all your hardware and replace some hardware with 'Linux-safe' hardware" doesn't fly.
Now I know that Windows doesn't have this 100% correct either. Hunting down drivers can be HUGE pain. Installing XP on modern hardware can also sometimes be a HUGE pain. But I think everyone can agree that Linux can (and should) be better then Windows.
Forgive my long post...
Re:Think Antarctica (Score:5, Interesting)
Well as it turns out. It might never be Linux's year on the desk top. Fours years down the round, multimedia desknotes, UMPCs, smartphone/PDA, smartTVs and, maybe, just maybe, walk around virtual reality will be approaching. Now when it comes walk around virtual reality who seriously would want M$ DRMing your personal view of the world, talk about suck.
The real shift will be a hardware shift,with software supplied 'FREE' as in 'FREE' with the hardware, which combines compatibility across a broad range of different hardware platforms all free of licences. Typical family home, 4 phones, 2 Multimedia desknotes , 4 UMPCS, 2 smartTVs, 1 Family Server(email,VOIP messaging, streaming) yeah we are all stupid enough to pay for 12 OS licences every two years, or even every time we replace the hardware, then add to that another 12 office suite licences every two years now add the cost of fully functional unDRMed family server, plus additional user licences for guests. I am not even going to bother to calculate the cost, as it is obviously way out of the ballpark for the average family. Lets not of course forget some of the other content that still has to be paid for, games, movies and music.
So M$ is doomed, doomed I tell you ;), when it comes to windows and office, why else would ballmer be so myopic is his bid for yahoo as a result of a failing MSN if he did not know the writing was on the wall for M$'s monopoly OS and office suite pricing rip off (that monopoly is slowly but surely being eaten away by millions of voracious piranha penguins) ;D.
Re:KDE4 (Score:2, Interesting)
If you have a spare box to play with (and has a decent processor) give Gentoo a try. A few weeks living with it and you'll be hooked. Great community too
PS: Good luck and have fun!
Re:Compiz FTW (Score:3, Interesting)
> Yeah, but too many geeks say that "shiny" doesn't matter. It's "shiny" that sells.
You are probably right, and that makes me sad :-(
Call be a bored old git, but when I look at my computer screen I want to see the *content*, not a load of bling.
(Of course with *nix I do have a choice: I can use simple window manager like FVWM2.)
Re:Think Antarctica (Score:4, Interesting)
>Whatever combination of distro and package code that enables PC gaming on Linux will BE the standard.
One of the... many... many reasons there are no virtually no games on Linux is because *there are no standards* so software written a few years ago doesn't work a few years later if it's distributed in binary form.
Windows has games because not just because it has a large audience, but also because you can ship a game for windows and the exact same binary will still run years later.
Even on the transition to vista, most software actually worked if you turned compatibility mode on, and UAC off. You can still run *starcraft* on vista. Starcraft from *1995*.
Here's a link to a commercial Linux game from the 90s.
http://www.spiderwebsoftware.com/exile3/linuxexile3.html [spiderwebsoftware.com]
Go ahead, download the demo. Have fun getting that to run...
Re:Think Antarctica (Score:1, Interesting)
You act as if a Windows installation "just works"...
>I suddenly had no sound from my SB Live! I managed to resuscitate it after a bit, but that's the sort of thing that just shouldn't happen.
Would it have worked under Windows? No you would have to download the drivers (if you have your network driver cd lying around that is) or find the install cd. People under Linux expect every driver to be present in the kernel and everything to work from the default install without additional drivers, which is good, and granted the SBLive card should work without problems since it's so common, but you can't expect every driver to be present in the (default built) kernel. On the other hand, auto-detection under Windows does not work at all, you have to select the right driver yourself. So, I dunno, which one is better?
Re:Think Antarctica (Score:5, Interesting)
Microsoft is (and has been for a few years now) fighting hard against the Linux tide on the sub-desktop. Currently, they say its 50-50 [linuxdevices.com]... but that was years ago. I guess that's why the first result in every API search at the time returned the WinCE version.
Fast forward today, and Windows is sliding [findarticles.com] against the Penguin, which could suggest why the first result in every API search returns the .NET equivalent, and how if you install the Platform SDK, you cannot uncheck the option for .NET embedded APIs.
So.. Linux for the future, I reckon so simply because the biggest and best weathervane for increasing Linux adoption is shouting how worried they are (ie Microsoft). If MS were ignoring Linux and F/OSS then I'd think it was all hype, but as they're coughing up cash for various OSS projects, declaring how open-source friendly they are, creating their own OSS repository sites (codeplex), getting various OSS projects better integrated with Windows.. all that just shows how worried they are, so Linux is a big deal at the moment.
Black != Vista (Score:1, Interesting)
I've been a KDE3 user for quite awhile. My first impression of KDE4 was "WTF, are they trying to copy Vista?"
As a whole, I'm hoping it will turn out quite well, but the colour scheme and little boxes everywhere really do seem reminiscent of certain Redmond OS's. C'mon guys, I know you can be more creative than that!
Not meaning to be too blunt, but that is a really ignorant statement.
Just because it has a black taskbar by default and has some eye candy does not make it like Vista. Honestly, if you bothered to look a bit more closely you might actually notice this. They are NOTHING alike!! I'm willing to bet that you haven't used either of them properly, because if you did you would notice that they are worlds apart.
KDE4 is well on its way to becoming a much better and flexible desktop environment than anything Redmond has or will put out in the foreseeable future.