Linux To Take Over The Low-End PC Market? 391
An anonymous reader writes "Desktop Linux has a recent commentary on the inevitable growth of Linux on the cheaper end of the desktop market. According to the article, the availability of under-$500 usable hardware, combined with a free operating system, free desktop office products, and free or cheap 'software as a service' online applications, opens a new market in which Microsoft cannot compete. 'Microsoft will fight this trend tooth and nail. It will cut prices to the point where it'll be bleeding ink on some of its product lines. And Windows XP is going to stick around much longer than Microsoft ever wanted it to. Still, it won't be enough.'"
Microsft Remove Vista's Kill Switch (Score:4, Interesting)
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/12/04/1331246&from=rss [slashdot.org]
Is it any coincidence that Microsoft has done this? Piracy does help them to a certain extent, it pushes their products into markets where people cannot afford them, or just flat out don't want to pay for it, which still ultimatley counts towards their market share.
A little off topic (Score:2, Interesting)
Piracy & Linux on the desktop (Score:3, Interesting)
But recently with activation & continuous authentication, Microsoft has tried to prevent this.
Has Microsoft finally given up its an extra tier of pricing beyond retail and volume? "You'd never give us a cent for Windows? Well, at least pirate it
Perceived delay (Score:5, Interesting)
The main problem, IMHO, is not even Joe Newbie who re-formats his GNU PC. It is the mentality of PC vendors itself who do not even configure their GNU/Linuxes correctly on their hardware.
The other day I saw a notebook at a shop with a misconfigured video driver, logged in X11 with a purplish tint and horizontal garbage lines everywhere. Another example: a local LinuxMagazine review a couple of years ago found out that in a Hwlet Packard low end desktop system pre-configured with GNU/Linux (indeed!), OpenOficce would take a full 3 minutes to start!! Because they had configured a 128MB system with a 1GB Swap.
Nicest device at present (Score:3, Interesting)
High resolution touch screen (800*480), hardware keyboard, gps and customisable - ~$450
This looks dreamy (and its on my xmas list)
This may not be good for Linux. (Score:2, Interesting)
When most people buy a Low End System they are not happy with it...
Packard Bell, Compaq, eMachines... They buy them because they though they are a good deal, or just because they don't have the money for a good System. They are not happy with it. Then throw a OS that people can't buy new software in the stores or the latest or even older games on it. Hardware problems causing the OS to Crash... While saving Windows for the high end systems which have better working hardware and more secure drivers Windows will run rock solid on those.
No it is not Linux's fault but putting linux on the Low end to try to get into the Desktop Market is a poor way to go. Linux already has a knitch in the servers, and if people work half as hard in the imbedded market Linux can get a good foothold there too. Right now there are 2 strong competitors in the Desktop Market Windows and Macs. And for Desktop use Linux isn't close they are still about 6 years behind. (Which is an improvement 5 years ago they were 10 years behind)
Re:After burners are outlawed. (Score:5, Interesting)
Yeah, but they probably aren't the low end, now, are they? I think a lot of people are fed up with virus software updates and other fine Windows features. The high end of the market is moving to Mac, and the low end -- at least the more knowledgeable among them -- are moving to Linux. I live near Howard County, Maryland, which has an award-winning public library system. The free internet access is spectacular there; walk in, sit down, start using, no waiting, no library card required. Guess what operating system and applications it uses? And no one complains about it not being Windows.
Re:Apples and oranges (Score:3, Interesting)
I'd like this to be true, but ... (Score:3, Interesting)
The arguement... (Score:3, Interesting)
Customers will balk when they realize that they use the computer for just internet and simple word processing and maybe some multimedia.
The problem is, in the real world Linux isn't even on the radar of most individuals. If they did hear about it, it's probably something from a few years ago and not about one of the modern distributions.
The solution: Whoever sells these cheap machines has to advertise. It should be simple enough. A short TV add showing wireless internet and desktop productivity apps for a $200 machine like the OLPC would sell them like hotcakes. Especially when you say that the price includes full versions of all the software. (You can even have two people discuss during the ad about how they hate trial versions that came with their last computer, and comparing it to amarok, k3b, openoffice.org, and digikam. Especially mention seamless integration with mp3 players and digital cameras.)
Tragedy of the Commons (Score:5, Interesting)
I think Linux cannot succeed on price alone. It has to be enough better that people will invest the time needed to change their habits - which today drive them straight to Windows.
Prediction... (Score:4, Interesting)
These devices aren't going to directly hit MS's products - what they could do is cost them mindshare and threaten the future of their monopoly.
Products like the eeePC occupy a precarious niche just below cheap "regular" laptops - put a bigger screen and a CD drive on them and there'll be a cheaper Dell laptop - so while they may be successful for their manufacturers they're not going to make a big dent in PC sales. People will buy them as "extra" machines for kids or as spare "take anywhere" machines (don't buy a £2000 ultra-portable - buy a £1000 desktop or large screen laptop plus an eeePC for when you don't need the power or don't want to risk carrying your main machine). But if they find that, out-of-the-box, they can connect to web and EMAIL and open most of their documents with these things called "Firefox", "Thunderbird" and "Open Office" then they might have their eyes opened to other possibilities.
Remember, MS's real monopoly is Office, not Windows. How many lUsers have you met who, when asked what version of windows they are running, respond with their Office version? However, I was in a school (in England) recently and saw a big (homemade) poster on the wall saying "Haven't got MS Office at home? Have you tried the free alternative from www.OpenOffice.org?" - so there is hope for the world.
If I were MS right now I'd be busily developing something like "Vista Lite Edition" that could be sold on a memory stick alongside eeePCs and the like for about $25, probably including a stripped down office. ISTR they did do something similar in some countries but it was perceived as "Windows - crippled edition". It might be an easier sell if it was linked to built-to-a-price "appropriate technology" hardware.
Linux fanboy hypocrisy (Score:2, Interesting)
You guys always talk of Linux taking over, but at the same time demand that govt. tie Microsoft down in monopoly regulations. If Linux is going to take over, then Windows is not a monopoly, by definition. Which is it slashdot? Is Windows doomed and therefore not a monopoly or is it the other way around?
Linux as "poor man's operating system"? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Linux fanboy hypocrisy (Score:4, Interesting)
That said, the growing success of Linux (and the Mac OS)will ensure that one day--who knows how soon--Microsoft will use the Linux saturation levels as an argument against sanctions it faced (faces) as a monopoly. That's when the OS war will finally reach the point of full engagement.
Eee (Score:4, Interesting)
carrot vs no carrot (Score:4, Interesting)
But there is something riding against commercial vs. free software, and it's a double edged sword: feature creep.
In the commercial world, software has to keep adding features in order to sell the next version and keep the profits rolling in. This might help an otherwise under-featured bit of software gain widely sought-after functionality. However, we all know there comes a time when a software package is "just right," yet continues to add features and functionality that are unwanted and only complicate usability (e.g., winamp, nero, etc.)
With free software, there is no incentive to add unnecessary features. This is why I believe that in the long run, free software will dominate the marketplace, because it can afford to not give users features they don't need. But it can be difficult for a sophisticated package to take on critical functionality without a carrot.
Look at the state of video editing on Linux. Yes I have used Kino and Cinelerra, but anyone who has used them knows how tricky and unstable these tools are compared to, say, iMovie.
Free will win in the end, unless commercial software finds a way to bust the bloat.
That's why Linux's market share will grow (Score:2, Interesting)
At least, that's the optimistic view of the situation. And I do like to hope. If this doesn't work, we'll just try something else! But the gPCs flying off the shelves at Wal-Mart do give one pause, and make one wonder if this might not be the wave of the future. Think about it -- this whole "mainstream acceptance" thing would have been RIDICULOUS five or ten years ago. Now we're seriously debating it. Who's to say where Linux won't be in another few years?
Re:Wishful Thinking, (again) (Score:3, Interesting)
If you RTFA you'd note one of the major points was that several pre-installed Linux machines from several vendors are making their way to mainstream venues. Note, the vendors you list are well and good, but you're missing Wal-mart and Costco both of which sell considerably more computers than several of the retailers you mention.
This is very true and often overlooked. The market is all about pre-installed OS's.
Another point of the article was that as prices come down and you look at lower portions of the market, the cost difference between a Windows pre-install and a Linux preinstall becomes more and more significant. If you're comparing a $1200 Linux box to a $1275 Windows box, many consumers are less likely to take a chance or go out of their way. When you're comparing a $250 Linux box to a $325 Windows box, the market is much more likely to be price sensitive and make a change based on price, if given the option. If the market continues in this direction, what is going to happen when users are considering a $100 Linux box or a $300 Windows box because the cost of running Windows includes not only the license, but also more hardware to accommodate its larger footprint for the same performance?
The fact that you're starting to be able to find a Linux box on some of those shelves, however, is a sign that Linux might be starting a growth spurt on the low end. The weathervane, by the way, is not the mall, but Wal-mart... that is where the low end shoppers are.
Re:Microsoft will not bleed ink (Score:3, Interesting)
And how, exactly, is this different from the Windows user support sites? Having spent endless hours on both Linux and Windows help forums (and I'm on the Windows help forums because Microsoft or a Windows app vendor said "screw you, I've got your money already, no soup for you") I see little difference except that you eventually generally get a solution on the Linux forums, whereas on the Windows forums you're often dismissed with a "just wait for the Service Pack or app upgrade" kind of response, after being mocked for being on an older version of Windows than the respondee.
You know, this is going to come as an absolute shock to you, but many Mac users view Windows user attitudes from precisely the same perspective that you view Linux users. To them, Windows people are amazingly condescending and arrogant. I've experienced this myself aplenty from folks who apparently believe that their Microsoft Partner designation gets them the key to the same executive washroom that the Almighty uses.
You must not hang around the same Linux help forums I do, where fixes come relatively quickly and the community is very very helpful. How much would you care to bet that doing multi-platform (Linux/Mac/Windows) multimedia production with multi-platform-supported network services, my support issues are a tad more extreme that this Mr. J. User you postulate? Yet, my experience with the Windows vs. Linux "hard core" community has been just exactly the opposite of yours.
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