Attempts to Count Linux Users Remain Pointless 304
An anonymous reader writes "A great deal of attention is paid to numbers, but rarely does one actually ask what these numbers mean. One problem that many people have been trying to tackle is gauging the extent of use of Free software, including Linux. Questionnaires are not a solution here and neither are statistics, which are usually derived from the wrong data. The following article looks at the various challenges at hand and concludes that the growth rate of Linux is likely to remain an enigma."
Not possible (Score:3, Interesting)
Plus are you talking about just Server/desktop? If you count the millions of embedded devices that run gnu/linux I'm sure it would be considered the worlds most popular OS. It's all in how you want to swing the numbers.
Well, duh. (Score:5, Interesting)
It might not be entirely pointless to try, but I'm reasonably convinced of two things: I don't care (and don't need to) about the exact numbers, and it's growing.
I don't care largely because the software meets *my* needs. That's the most important thing to me. An assurance that it will continue to do so is also nice, and there are clearly a lot of people developing for it. I'm not worried on that front. People who have a big investment in *other people* using Linux (especially when said other people aren't developers) confuse me. (Well, except when they're trying to sell Linux software / services.)
It's growing. I can't tell you how much, but I can offer the anecdotal evidence that the responses I get to "I run Linux" have changed over the past few years. It's not always "What's that?" anymore. It's not uncommon to get questions about it in response -- people want to know how well it works, whether it runs the same software as Windows, etc. I just answer their questions and am polite and friendly about it.
couldn't you just (Score:5, Interesting)
Ask them if they use Linux of not
Extrapolate the results.
Seems to work when there counting all kinds of other things that don't have a direct method of counting them.
Ah, an Onion-esk headline (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, it's not so much that they are pointless - just that they are useless. There is a point to knowing how many Linux boxes are out there (demographic studies, confidence in support longevity as a function of install base, etc.) But most known techniques for counting remain useless.
To be honest, this might be just as well. Any technology that COULD count successfully all the Linux boxes out there would be a bit scary - many people probably don't WANT anyone to be able to know what they are running. (OK so nmap can probably figure out anyway...)
Large scale counts like this are a difficult proposition - the only things that approaches being successful in this respect are probably automobile registration systems, census systems, and the tax system - in other words, massive systems with compulsary reporting for every existing component member.
Now, of more interest might be to work with the BSA for a while (or someone else who has the authority to open random IT doors at random) and do an anonymous study of deployment percentages at random under guise of a random license check or soemthing. Probably (hopefully!) not legal but it would be a way to get statistically meaningful results if the sample was chosen well.
Re:couldn't you just (Score:3, Interesting)
How would you do it? Call people up? Sorry, that excludes all the people who use only VoIP or cell phones, because you can't call them. So, you know that your survey is already limited to mouth-breathers who still use POTS and talk to survey people.
Am I going out on a limb to say that that class of people has markedly different charasteristics than those outside of it, especially on Linux?
"Linux Users" vs "Uses of Linux" (Score:2, Interesting)
For me personally, the number of web servers or embedded devices using Linux doesn't mean anything. My car's navigation system must run some sort of operating system, however, I wouldn't consider myself a User of that OS though it certainly is a Use of that OS (whatever it might be). I didn't purposely choose my Nav system because it ran a particular OS, it simply came with whatever it came with and I use it just like I would use a phone or a washer or refrigerator with some embedded OS.
I would feel the data would be useful if broken down into at least two broad categories:
1. All uses of Linux.
2. Users who knowingly and purposely choose Linux as their OS of choice. Presumably this would be a subset of data from #1 and would useful for consumer application developers.
Re:It depends on your definition. (Score:4, Interesting)
A point that is not actually made in TFA. I was talking with my father-in-law the other day, and we were discussing my software-engineering job, and that I use Linux preferentially simply because it's so much more reliable and "commercial grade" despite it's being free.
He announces to me that "Well, that's all fine and dandy, but I'm never going to bother learning that...". So I pointed to the Dish DVR under his TV and the Linksys router next to his Windows PC, and indicated that he was already using it more than he was using Windows!
This is a point that TFA didn't cover at all. The desktop is losing its dominant position.
Re:hmm. (Score:5, Interesting)
Then a friends company (not a small one mind you) went off to do a linux-on-the-desktop study as alot of their windows agreements were about to become eol so to speak. At first I thought this was a bargaining tool to get cheaper software, but I was surprised to find that not only was it about replacing the desktop but also the server side functionality. It turned out they'd started looking at linux desktops because they'd managed to gain some linux servers to replace most costly machines (some windows, but alot were aix or solaris) - interestingly, alot of the now-linux server hardware are sun x86'ers running centos. As a result they took on some linux types to administer them, and it grew - they replaced a few non-essential file servers. changed a few mail gateways to linux. Moved proxies to squid. As their CTO put it "i was suddenly surrounded by linux and didn't realise it until i looked at the balance sheets, all we are paying for is hardware and alot of the things we are using linux for are internally grown and maintained. I started to think we weren't paying for licenses were we should be". One of the things that did take him by supprise is that half his IT department by this time had switched to a linux desktop and used mail thru imap or some such (some were using windows still thru vmware player or from a terminal server running outlook). Apparently if you pxe boot off alot of the networks, you'll get a pxelinux menu that allows you to boot various things like dsl or install a customized ubuntu (though i didn't see that myself). I know they're also running some systems with RHEL too because they "feel good" to know they have support.
To sum it up, i was quite shocked. 12 months ago I was feeling "unix was coming to an end" and feeling quite disappointed by that, but I feel quite elated by what i've seen lately - Especially so in Australia where linux has had a really tough time of it.
Having said all that, i think the author wasn't just referring to linux users but also the users of FOSS replacements for commercial applications (like open office, gimp, etc). I can't say i've seen a tonne of that myself, but its not uncommon to see things like gaim, firefox, jedit, eclipse - smaller things really.
It will be very interesting to see what the next 12months brings us.
Re:Of Red Hats and Yellow Pants (Score:3, Interesting)
The problems with the guys that wrote the article are simply spreading FUD. Nothing more. Of course you can count and those counts are being done. As I stated there are approximately 100 million installs world-wide. That number will probably double to triple by the end of 2008. That's no failure.
You are just as miserable as they are. You see your future being put asunder by a superior product. Time will tell. I've been in this business for over 20 years and I know a success when I see it. Windows is on the slide. Linux is progressive. Windows will do nothing but loose share. Linux will do nothing but gain.
The more people know Linux is out there winning on desktops all over the world the more will understand that Linux is an winner overall. With a superior kernel, with hundreds of thousands of minds participating (world-wide), with superior minds coming up with superior products at a significantly faster rate of development, Linux can do nothing but win and win in a big way.
Microsoft is a convicted monopolist. They are being held to task on that every day. People all over the world are letting others know how and what Microsoft did and what they continue to do today by spying on you, by extorting legitimate users, by creating lock-in mechanisms in order to further their monopoly--you name it, they are doing it and it is bad.
You pal, are just strange. Don't post responses to my posts because you sound cowardly.
Re:Numbers are meaningless (Score:2, Interesting)
An hour later I'd installed beryl (more and better eye candy than I've seen on either Vista or OSX), installed wine, and was logged in to WoW without a start menu or paperclip in sight. The one time I did manage to break something (didn't install graphics drivers before installing beryl) a boot into recovery mode fixed everything in 2 minutes.