2008 - Year of Linux Desktop?

rstrohmeyer writes "Over at Maximum PC, we're betting that Linux will pick up unprecedented momentum in the coming year. With phenomenal new distros, swelling international support, and a little extra momentum from Dell, we think Linux is poised to exploit the current atmosphere of doubt surrounding Vista and pick up serious traction in '08. 'For end users here in North America, Linux poses a low barrier to entry. While many still balk at an upgrade to Vista (typically centered around cost and restrictive licensing terms), those who are curious about the open-source alternative will find few of these obstacles. And an increasingly rich array of ready-to-run software (not to mention surprisingly effective utilities that let you run many Windows apps) makes it easy switch ... Ultimately, I'm not predicting that Linux will take over the market next year. Or anytime soon, for that matter. But if there's ever been a time to try out the world's leading free OS, 2008 will be that time. I am predicting that users will switch to Linux in record numbers next year. And many will never look back.'"

Every year...

[Fyre2012]

... it's said 'is XXXX the year for the Linux Desktop'?

What would make it so? At what point would it be possible to quantify that 'yes, this IS the year!'... when there is 100,000 users? 500,000 users? 10,000,000 users?

slashdot, of ALL places should understand that Linux is making better ground each year in a number of markets, including the desktop. To say that 'this is the year' we might as well say 'this is the century'. It's impossible to quantify.

Not optimistic about the US

[rmcd]

As TFA suggests, perhaps Linux is poised to take off outside the US. Inside the US, I dunno.

I recently installed Ubuntu 7.04 as a family desktop (dual booting with Windows), on a Dimension 8400. Having reading so much about about what a terrific distribution it is, I decided to experiment. (To provide context, I also have a Debian server that handles backup, slimserver, print sharing, and a Myth backend, and a Debian Myth front end. I'm extremely happy with both.) I've been unpleasantly surprised by Ubuntu as a desktop.

1. Playing DVDs in the US remains a problem. I know that Linspire is going to address this, but this is a huge issue.

2. VPN is a pain. Apparently Network Manager doesn't work right if you have a static IP address! I spent a *lot* of time trying to get VPN to work before I discovered this. Yes, it's a reported bug.

3. Reliable power management, i.e. suspension and hibernation. It's crash city when I suspend or hibernate. Yes I have the latest BIOS. No, I'm not willing to buy a new machine. And yes, I'm sure there are many machines where power management works properly, but I'm also sure there are many machines like mine.

4. The general polish of the Gnome interface is low compared to Windows and OS X. (Yes, I've also looked at KDE.) When I switch users, why do I have to log in twice?

These strike me as all pretty basic issues. I haven't tried to find problems. I've just tried to get the Ubuntu desktop working as a functional equivalent of the Windows desktop. I couldn't do it.

I do see huge progress relative to 5 years ago, but I also see a long way to go.

Re:what is linux

[GeigerBC]

I was thinking along the lines of "something companies don't make drivers for." In my defense, the last two or three summers I have given Linux (Ubuntu) a go. I still hit hardware (ATI, Creative's X-Fi) and software (iTunes + iPod) that can't be easily replicated or adjusted to a novice Linux user. It's gotten better though.

2008 will be the Apple's year, not Linux

[Swift Kick]

While the article is nice and points to some great progress in a number of fronts (like Dell's recent announcement about shipping desktops loaded with Ubuntu), Linux still has an enourmous amount of ground to cover before it comes close to being a serious rival to Windows in the consumer desktop market.

Please note that this is just a personal experience which has repeated itself pretty much every time I ran across a new machine.

It is still a bit of work to get Linux to function properly in a machine with recent hardware. As an example, we have a few new Dell boxes with nothing fancy here, just Core 2 Duo processors, SATA drive, and ATI X1300 video cards.
Fedora 6 and 7 both barfed when starting the install because of the SATA DVDROM. Ubuntu had the same behavior.
After 4 hours of checking multiple forums for FAQs and HowTos, we got Fedora 7 running on them, yet the video card isn't recognized properly by Xorg off the box, so no dual-head, no native resolution. Off to get more updates, more FAQs, etc.
By comparison, we had XP running in 30 minutes in one of the boxes, and one hour later it had all the required software needed for the developer to go to work, including VMWare with a Fedora 7 virtual machine running in it.

How can you expect large user migrations to Linux is experiences like this one are closer to the norm? Joe User doesn't want to spend 2 or 3 days just trying to get his OS installed, only to have to spend another few days just trying to get his/her bearings around.

People will *not* migrate to it if the applications they want to run don't run on Linux, and Joe User can't be bothered with adapting to a whole slew of apps, that 'sort-of-look-but-aren't-really-the-same' as their old ones, even if they're superior to their Windows versions when it comes to functionality.
Let's not even start discussing games. Yes, a number of popular games run under Wine or Cedega, but people do not want to spend hours trying to diagnose issues or tweak stuff; more often than not, they want to install it and go.

Until you can take a distribution disk, pop it on a random machine with decent hardware, and have everything up and running without requiring any type of user action 'under the hood', Linux will remain firmly esconced in the realm of server rooms, geek basements, and nerd bedrooms; not in your average household.

Ubuntu.

[crhylove]

Yeah, this article is dead on. Except the time isn't just in 2008. It's right now. I've recently switched about 20 people over to Ubuntu from Windows, and all but one of them were ecstatic. The one exception is a very heavy illustrator user, and said inkscape wasn't good enough. Other than that though, it's been 100% rave reviews and new clients for my little bedroom/repair shop.

rhY

Re:why not

[ehiris]

Linux might be ready for the desktop but most of the software that we use is not ready for Linux.

When I send files to Linux-only users, they whine because they have no means to open them.

Re:Maximum PC should stick to coolers

[Anonymous Coward]

I have mod points, but due to the lack of a "-1, Uninformed" option, I'll post instead. VLC [videolan.org] can play Windows Media encoded files, right up to the latest version of WM--with no extra codecs needed. DVDs, Quicktime, WM*, ASF, AVI (divx, xvid, etc), MP3, FLAC, you name it.

Re:2008 will be the Apple's year, not Linux

[wall0159]

While there is certainly a benefit to controlling the hardware and software to provide a seamless experience (as Apple does), I think they won't be able to compete with Linux in the long term. Apple will ultimately lose to Linux for the same reason they lost to Windows - lack of flexibility. Macs can only be bought in a few preconfigured options, whereas PCs can be bought in almost any form. (I'm not bagging Apple here - I have an iBook and love it. I just don't think they'll become dominant for this reason.)

Windows will lose to Linux because they can't keep up with the innovation, security and robustness afforded by being open-source. The rate of development on Linux is staggering, and there's no way MS can keep up. If you look at the most successful human societies - they're the ones that share resources (that's the benefit of _being_ a society, after all) - code sharing means that Linux will win in the end.

Someone made the comment about codecs and DRM. I really don't think that will be a problem. As has been noted elsewhere, the average ipod owner has bought about 10 tracks from the ITMS. Almost no one has DRMd video (apart from DVDs, which play fine), so I think that's a non-issue.

Will it (The Year of Linux) happen in 2008? I don't know and don't care. But it seems likely that it _will_ happen.

Nope

[noewun]

And for a very simple reason: there's no compelling reason for your average computer to switch away from Windows or OS X.

Now, full disclosure: I run OS X and Linux at home and whatever OS is needed at work, usually OS X, sometimes Windows. Of the three I prefer OS X, but I'm pretty agnostic.

That said, the unspoken truth about OS choice is that for most of the things an average computer user does--web, email, music, movies, games, porn--Windows does a good enough job. This isn't to say it does a great job. This isn't to say that OS X or Linux don't do a better job. This is just to say that Windows does a good enough job for most people. In other words, Linux has no killer app. The things which important for the F/OSS community (transparency, free as in speech and beer, DIY) aren't important to average computer users. For your average user, a computer is an appliance like a fridge or a microwave, to be purchased, used until it breaks or is too old, and then replaced with a new one. For Linux to gain appreciable market share it will have to be a better product: it will have to do something much better than Windows. It will also have to have the things people expect from products; warranties, 1-800 numbers and tech support.

Apple's way of differentiating is to make the GUI more accessible for your average user, and to design a vertically integrated suite of hardware and software which reinforce each other. Linux, so far, has no easily identifiable feature or set of features which say, "Hey, I'm better than Windows." Until it does, there will be no Year of Linux on the Deskop.

Re:This isn't a solution

[Spookticus]

The problem with Linux is that it no one is marketing it. Showing an ad on television does indeed work. When was the last time you had seen a commercial on television about Linux?. Anyone will almost buy anything or try anything if they see an ad for it, as it will increase the knowledge of said product. To most of the general population Linux is unheard of or is merely known as an "underground" operating system. I bet just a couple of commercials on some of the more watched networks would spark the interest of quite a few followers. What do you think?

Re:Nope.

[frogstar_robot]

There will only be the year when people realize that most everyone else is running Linux, too.

That would be nice but it isn't necessary. Linux only has to get as big in it's domain as Firefox is in web browsing. Firefox has enough market and mind share that most websites can't afford to ignore it. A nice side effect is that if a site works well in Firefox then it will also work well for Safari, Opera, or whatever standards compliant browser you like. So to continue this line of thought, Linux only has to match OS X in market share. If desktop Linux had those sorts of percentages then application houses and hardware manufacturers have to pay commensurate attention.

I'm not saying that will necessarily happen either but it is an easier goal than almost completely displacing Windows. Linux doesn't have to completely displace Windows. It just has to be big enough to shrug off market and legal assaults. A healthy desktop share for Linux would have the same effect Firefox has in web browsing too: It will be easier for other OSes to be fully functional desktops in the face of the large share MS would still have.

Re:2027 - year of fusion power?

[Spacejock]

Actually, the two most common support questions I'm getting for all my freeware apps are (1) I just switched to Mac, and are you planning an OSX version? and (2) I just got Ubuntu, are you planning a Linux version?

In seven years of giving away my software I've never seen this many requests for non-Windows versions. Unfortunately all my apps are written in Visual Studio 6, so the current answer to both questions is NO. I am rewriting my stuff in VS2005 though, which might offer a bit more cross-platform support down the track with the Mono project. (And no, I'm not switching languages. First, because I do this for fun and second, at almost 40 years of age and with a publishing contract for my novels in hand, I'm past the days of learning new languages.)