10 Linux Predictions For 2002

Weedstock writes: "In an article on LinuxWorld, Joe Barr is once again making 10 predictions about the success of Linux for the new year." The first of many sets of predictions for 2002, no doubt. And some guy named "Robin" or "Roblimo" or something like that wrote about Linux in 2003 for Newsforge.

Joe Barr's Track Record for 2001

[Gleef]

Joe Barr did a similar article for 2001 [linuxworld.com]. Here's how he did:

1. Linux Kernel 2.4 will be released, and will trounce Windows in the benchmarks
Half right. 2.4.0 was released, performance was good, but not as good as it could have been. It's gotten better since. Nobody that I know of has done comprehensive benchmarking. I'll give this one a half point.

2. MS Findings of Law overturned, Findings of Fact stand. Ordered back to lower court. DOJ loses zeal for case
Almost perfect. The Conclusions of Law stood, but the Final Judgement was overturned. Everything else was on the nose. I'll give this one a full point.

3. Consolidation and attrition of Linux companies. Fewer distributions. RedHat & VA merge. SuSE & Atipa merge.
Didn't happen. There were some mergers, but no big ones. There was much attrition, but primarily on the fringes of the Linux world, the rest of the computer industry was much harder hit attrition-wise. There are more distributions than ever. There are no superdistributions, in fact, I'd say more people realize today that RedHat != Linux than a year ago. No points.

4. KDE and GNOME continue as separate projects.
Easy point.

5. Linus stops heavy kernel hacking, focuses on community leadership.
You've got to be joking. No points.

6. One of the big five computer retailers offers a Linux boot (or dual boot) for a retail desktop machine.
Nope, didn't happen.

7. Widespread government desktop adoption of Linux
Nope, didn't happen. More servers tho.

8. Bruce Perens shakes up HP.
If it happened, it was completely behind the scenes. From out here, it looks like Compaq's pleading to be eaten had much more effect on HP's management than Bruce did. He has had some effect, and he's still there, so there's always next year. No point.

9. Linux stocks will thrive.
Ha. Hahahaha [lwn.net]. Hahahahahaha. Seriously, they didn't do badly compared to the rest of the tech stocks, but I would hardly call it "thriving". No point.

10. Another great year for Linux
Easy point.

So, last year, he got three and a half out of ten. One was a complete giveaway (#10), and most people would say #4 was a giveaway too. Not the most impressive set of predictions.

Re:Linux desktop will appear in public places

[omega9]

Circuit City is moving in the same direction. They're headquartered here in Richmond, VA. An acquaintance of mine is a lead programmer on a team responsible for creating custom GTK apps for their POS systems. I don't know all the details, but I believe they're using Red Hat as their base distro (which, I guess, isn't that suprising).

Other people that are deploying Linux are Home Depot [informationweek.com], Burlington Coat Factory [internetweek.com], and The New York Stock Exchange [idgnet.com]. Of course there's also IBM, but they [ibm.com] hardly [ibm.com] need [ibm.com] mentioning [internet.com].

I think it's fair to debate how well Linux fits certain needs, but so far there has been solid proof that it fits some very large needs for some vary large companies. By 2003, I think the outlook is nothing but positive. Shooting for world domination is a grand goal, and capturing the desktop world would seem to be a huge piece of completing that goal. As much as we talk about it, I think we all understand that our grandmothers won't be using Linux anytime soon. In the meantime I'll be perfectly happy knowing that Linux is being used for the high-scale, back-end systems, while Fischer Price My First Operating System [microsoft.com] hangs out on the desktop.

Re:This is NOT a troll...

[xtremex]

Hmmmm..my mom uses Mandrake 8.1...she has no problem. ZERO. I just installed the new ELXlinux for a friend of mine (who FEARS Linux), and I'd have to say ELX has got the right idea. Go to their website...look at the screenshots.Then make a partition and install that sucker. I'm a 7 year Linux veteran and I was AMAZED at what they produced.

Re:Given the abusrdity of the predictions...

[nathanm]

I doubt that the CIA/FBI/NSA even uses windows XP for any sort of confidential information. Most like they're still running the nearly bug free Windows NT, or some incarnation of unix.

You're right. They use certified "secure" operating systems, like Trusted Solaris (based on 2.5, although a version based on 8 is now out, it'll be awhile before anyone switches over), HP-UX Trusted (based on 6.5 or 7.0) , Trusted IRIX (based on 4.0 or 6.5), Trusted AIX, Trusted Oracle (based on 7.2.3), and other systems that have been thoroughly audited and tested by the DOD.

Also, the government's secure systems are not even connected to the internet. They're on a completely separate network, the SIPRNET, which is highly encrypted before it leaves the buildings. So, for his #5 to happen, some agency would have to adopt Windows XP early in its life cycle (not their style at all), connect it to the internet (doesn't happen), or inadvertently let someone into their server room (yeah right).