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Linux To Take Over The Low-End PC Market?

Posted by Zonk on Monday December 10, @07:17AM
from the penguins-on-the-loose dept.
An anonymous reader writes "Desktop Linux has a recent commentary on the inevitable growth of Linux on the cheaper end of the desktop market. According to the article, the availability of under-$500 usable hardware, combined with a free operating system, free desktop office products, and free or cheap 'software as a service' online applications, opens a new market in which Microsoft cannot compete. 'Microsoft will fight this trend tooth and nail. It will cut prices to the point where it'll be bleeding ink on some of its product lines. And Windows XP is going to stick around much longer than Microsoft ever wanted it to. Still, it won't be enough.'"

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[+] KDE 4 Uses 40% Less Memory Than 3 Despite Eye-Candy 562 comments
An anonymous reader writes "Pro-Linux reports that KDE 4, scheduled to be released in January 2008, consumes almost 40% less memory than KDE 3.5, despite the fact that version 4 of the Free and Open Source desktop system includes a composited window manager and a revamped menu and applet interface. KDE developer Will Stephenson showcased KDE 4's 3D eye-candy on a 256Mb laptop with 1Ghz CPU and run-of-the-mill integrated graphics, pointing out that mini-optimizations haven't even yet been started." Update: 12/14 22:40 GMT by Z : Or, not so much. An anonymous reader writes "The author of the original KDE 3.5 vs KDE 4.0 memory comparison has come out with a more accurate benchmark. In reality, KDE 4.0 uses 110 MB more memory than KDE 3.5.8.
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  • Microsoft will not bleed ink (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Nefarious Wheel (628136) * on Monday December 10, @07:20AM (#21640279) Journal
    Everything Microsoft has on the market pre-Vista has long since been amortized, I think. And I'm not sure ink is what MSFT has in its veins...
  • Microsft Remove Vista's Kill Switch (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Freaky Spook (811861) on Monday December 10, @07:28AM (#21640325)

    http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/12/04/1331246&from=rss [slashdot.org]

    Is it any coincidence that Microsoft has done this? Piracy does help them to a certain extent, it pushes their products into markets where people cannot afford them, or just flat out don't want to pay for it, which still ultimatley counts towards their market share.

  • A little off topic (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 10, @07:30AM (#21640347)
    but I'd been using OSX heavily for about one year and since then, my usage of linux has dramatically increased. It started with Kubuntu, but got a little tired of it, before finally settling on Fedora 8 just recently. I've completely flicked Windows now. The last legacy for me using Windows was for the casual gaming, but that was gone when I finally got a console (admittedly a 360). I gradually got used to using a terminal, picked a shell that I liked and stuck with it. Forced myself to do everything with the terminal. Eventually, have a little library of scripts that do most of my everyday stuff. I'll never look back. I think the big thing that made it happen was sites like macosxhints that post little snippets of one line shell scripts that users comment on, improve (if possible) and then are easily searchable. Some of the LinuxForums are useful, but I'm yet to find one that is good, and as simple, as the one I mentioned above.
  • Piracy & Linux on the desktop (Score:3, Interesting)

    by BobKagy (25820) on Monday December 10, @07:32AM (#21640363)
    Previously sales figures for Linux desktops were suspect because of the argument "Well, everybody buying them is just putting a pirated copy of Windows on them anyway." Scanning the article I didn't see anything about piracy...

    But recently with activation & continuous authentication, Microsoft has tried to prevent this.

    Has Microsoft finally given up its an extra tier of pricing beyond retail and volume? "You'd never give us a cent for Windows? Well, at least pirate it ..."

  • News that matters? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by iBod (534920) on Monday December 10, @07:33AM (#21640365)
    TFA is just a rather poorly informed opinion piece and a lot of wishful thinking.

    Since when did this consititute 'news'?
  • Perceived delay (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Pope Raymond Lama (57277) <gwidion&mpc,com,br> on Monday December 10, @07:35AM (#21640387) Homepage
    In my coutry we have had GNU/Linux in low end PC's at mainstream outlets for sometime now.Most of these are replaced by an ilegal copy of windows on the first days of use, but still some stick around.That is just part of the vicious circle desktop systems are inserted due to the monopoly exerced by Microsoft, and certainly the few GNUs remaining do contribute for a slow market share shift.

    The main problem, IMHO, is not even Joe Newbie who re-formats his GNU PC. It is the mentality of PC vendors itself who do not even configure their GNU/Linuxes correctly on their hardware.

    The other day I saw a notebook at a shop with a misconfigured video driver, logged in X11 with a purplish tint and horizontal garbage lines everywhere. Another example: a local LinuxMagazine review a couple of years ago found out that in a Hwlet Packard low end desktop system pre-configured with GNU/Linux (indeed!), OpenOficce would take a full 3 minutes to start!! Because they had configured a 128MB system with a 1GB Swap.

  • Nicest device at present (Score:3, Interesting)

    by LiquidCoooled (634315) on Monday December 10, @07:35AM (#21640389)
    The nicest device I can see at present is the Nokia N810 [engadget.com] which runs the Maemo [maemo.org] (linux) OS.

    High resolution touch screen (800*480), hardware keyboard, gps and customisable - ~$450

    This looks dreamy (and its on my xmas list)
  • Annoyed (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Gigiya (1022729) on Monday December 10, @07:36AM (#21640395)
    I realize I should expect no less from an article on desktoplinux.com, but I'm extremely annoyed by comments like "Still, it won't be enough." I can just imagine a typical Linux fanboy laughing diabolically while typing it. While the article has valid points, comments like that are wishful thinking and immature conjecture.
  • Great, we need a vista killer (Score:4, Insightful)

    by zakezuke (229119) on Monday December 10, @07:37AM (#21640397)
    My biggest complaint wasn't the fact that Vista was a bug ridden piece of filth the likes of which made windows ME look good, but the fact they have Home Basic, Home Premium, Business, and Ultimate... oh and Enterprise too that no bugger seems to be using. An OS which will cost you $100 to $400.

    I'm not going to say $100 isn't reasonable for the OS that runs your PC. It's a fair price. But the version game is unacceptable. So hopefully some of the linux based PCs will drive down prices of MS's OS down to reasonable and sane levels.

     
    • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by iBod (Score:2) Monday December 10, @07:42AM
    • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by drsmithy (Score:3) Monday December 10, @07:53AM
      • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by MMC Monster (Score:2) Monday December 10, @08:45AM
      • Re:Great, we need a vista killer (Score:5, Insightful)

        by SharpFang (651121) on Monday December 10, @08:54AM (#21641049) Homepage Journal
        It's not uncommon, but it isn't fair (or, taking more objective standpoint: "is perceived unfair by a major percentage of customers") - you're paying 400% the base price to get like 40% extra functionality. Besides, people don't perceive the high-end versions as extended variants of the low-end base system, but the low-end versions as purposedly crippled high-end base.

        This still works as profit source in the short run, but it annoys the customer base, undermines loyalty, encourages seeking alternatives. And once alternatives are found, you lose in the long run. You squeeze $50 for Home Premium from an user today, and lose the whole sale and the customer entirely tomorrow.

        Except the analysis hardly ever takes into account reasons why people switch to other OS, and even if it does, it comes to entirely wrong conclusions (they are cheaper, they have better marketing) while your own faults - trying to squeeze last penny off the customer - are hardly ever taken into account as the 'real evil'. People hate being cheated and perceive this as cheating. And it doesn't matter you don't and your marketing people will explain to your CEO that it really isn't cheating. For people, it is, and people will hate you for that. And will jump the ship at the first opportunity... or steal from the thieves, not a crime to many.
      • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by 99BottlesOfBeerInMyF (Score:2) Monday December 10, @11:41AM
      • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by u-235-sentinel (Score:1) Monday December 10, @04:36PM
      • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
    • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by FudRucker (Score:1) Monday December 10, @07:57AM
    • Vista is its own vista killer by mysticgoat (Score:2) Monday December 10, @10:00AM
    • Re:Great, we need a vista killer by Alpha830RulZ (Score:2) Monday December 10, @10:08PM
  • This may not be good for Linux. (Score:2, Interesting)

    by jellomizer (103300) * on Monday December 10, @07:38AM (#21640409) Homepage
    While there is nothing to do to stop it. Having Linux run on Low End systems may not be good overall.
    When most people buy a Low End System they are not happy with it...
    Packard Bell, Compaq, eMachines... They buy them because they though they are a good deal, or just because they don't have the money for a good System. They are not happy with it. Then throw a OS that people can't buy new software in the stores or the latest or even older games on it. Hardware problems causing the OS to Crash... While saving Windows for the high end systems which have better working hardware and more secure drivers Windows will run rock solid on those.
    No it is not Linux's fault but putting linux on the Low end to try to get into the Desktop Market is a poor way to go. Linux already has a knitch in the servers, and if people work half as hard in the imbedded market Linux can get a good foothold there too. Right now there are 2 strong competitors in the Desktop Market Windows and Macs. And for Desktop use Linux isn't close they are still about 6 years behind. (Which is an improvement 5 years ago they were 10 years behind)
    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Lumpy (12016) on Monday December 10, @08:20AM (#21640691) Homepage
      you are almost completely incorrect. Everyone that buys an E-machine or other discount budget pc is happy with them. It plays the silly card games they want, it goes online, it let's them type a letter. Aunt gertie is not going to be entering any UT3 deathmatches soon or getting herself a WoW addiction going. She is happy with that Pentuim III 500 she bought back in 1999 it does everything she wants and windows 98 works fine for her. (in face she get's less infections as most new viruses will not run on a non unicode machine)

      If I upgrade her to A old thrown away G3 mac and she can do everything she did before, she will STILL be happy.

      That is what the $200.00 walmart PC is for... Aunt Gertie, Grandma Fluffles, and creepy uncle Fred. I have supported far more happy low power pc owners than I have seen happy high power pc owners.

      Funny part, most "high power" pc owners think sony Vaio = high end. sad reality is that it's low end just trendy.

      Low end pc's are for the bulk of the computer users. They do not play games, they don't run bit torrent and watch movies on their computer. They check email, write and print out letters, do online banking and play solitaire.

      For them, these computers are typically 300-400% faster than the 10 year old monster they are using now.
    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. by AlXtreme (Score:2) Monday December 10, @08:23AM
    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. by BESTouff (Score:3) Monday December 10, @08:40AM
    • by pimpimpim (811140) on Monday December 10, @09:01AM (#21641097)
      You keep using that word "Desktop". I think we should forget about the year where linux would become ready for the Desktop. By the time it would be there, Desktops will be outfashioned anyway. Instead, focus on the year where linux will be ready for mobile devices, which is more or less NOW. The advantage of mobile devices is the fact that driver support can be optimized just for the device itself, and a small set of extension cards. Just look at the new Nokia handheld computers and the EEE. Also, it is the range where people will accept a low end system if it also means they will get a better battery time. And it is a range where minimal use of memory is needed!

      What is also good for linux in this market, is that Windows seems to not be able to easily adjust to different form factors. They try to put windows XP on the EEE, but everything will be unreadable on the small screen! You can make icons and fonts bigger, but does that help? Making an interface for mobile devices requires a 'paradigm shift' (to put it in managerspeak), the Xandros developers for the EEE got that right with their simple menu. Nokia got that right. But even Windows CE doesn't get it, still thinking to much in the good-ol' "Desktop" idea.

    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. by Bert64 (Score:2) Monday December 10, @02:08PM
    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. by night_flyer (Score:2) Monday December 10, @08:37AM
    • Re:This may not be good for Linux. by Junta (Score:2) Monday December 10, @10:53AM
    • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
  • Microsoft lives or dies by your upgrades. It's not a casual accident that the term Wintel exists. More hardware more software, the crank turns you spend money and on and on it goes. But today's sub $500 PC is state of the art circa 2004-5. Back then I invested a lot of time in looking into the lowest hardware supportable for the then current latest desktop Linux installations. Starting from a Pentium 1 400Mhz with 112MB RAM I discovered that the stated prereqs of a Pentium 2 500Mhz and 256MB RAM was the absolute rockbottom. A 1.2Ghz machine with 512MBRAM was really where you wanted to be. In other words a Pentium 3. I have one of these running today and while no barn burner its perfectly servicable. I will probably replace it with a Celeron D, double the RAM and it will run fine for several more years. In other words a machine that I could have bought new from eMachines 2-3 years ago will then run fine for another 2-3 years. By comparison XPSP2 will run fine on that old P-3 machine albeit it's good to strip out most of the XP look and feel interface widgets. Running it to look like W2K makes it snappy enough. Of course running iTunes on anything makes it crawl. But how long will Redmond keep XPSP2 around? Another year? After 2008 what options will you have? What will you be able to do with that Via C7 Samuel? Not much. So perhaps there's a lot to believe in the statement that Linux will own the low end of the market soon. What about embedded systems in cars? I think so.
  • I'd like this to be true, but ... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 10, @07:48AM (#21640469)
    Op-ed from a pro Linux site isn't exactly an unbiased "news" source. Yes desktop Linux is going to become a bit more common, yes we'll see more entry level boxes shipping with it ... but MS' virtual monopoly on the OS market is not going to suddenly go away. If this becomes a serious threat to them they'll release something like XP starter edition for next to nothing, or even at a net income to the vendor after paid crapware pre-installs are added on. At that point Linux loses the main advantage that most people (initially at least) care about : that it's free-as-in-beer.
  • The arguement... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by MMC Monster (602931) on Monday December 10, @07:58AM (#21640529)
    In the grand /. tradition, I haven't RTFA. However, I guess that the argument is that as the price of hardware comes down, the price of commercial software makes up a bigger part of the total expenditure.

    Customers will balk when they realize that they use the computer for just internet and simple word processing and maybe some multimedia.

    The problem is, in the real world Linux isn't even on the radar of most individuals. If they did hear about it, it's probably something from a few years ago and not about one of the modern distributions.

    The solution: Whoever sells these cheap machines has to advertise. It should be simple enough. A short TV add showing wireless internet and desktop productivity apps for a $200 machine like the OLPC would sell them like hotcakes. Especially when you say that the price includes full versions of all the software. (You can even have two people discuss during the ad about how they hate trial versions that came with their last computer, and comparing it to amarok, k3b, openoffice.org, and digikam. Especially mention seamless integration with mp3 players and digital cameras.)
  • Tragedy of the Commons (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mark99 (459508) on Monday December 10, @08:15AM (#21640659) Journal
    MS can create a cheap version of Vista or XP with very little effort. And because they are earning *something* on it, I suspect in the long run it will get better support than anything that can be had for free. Commercial version of Linux are of course another story.

    I think Linux cannot succeed on price alone. It has to be enough better that people will invest the time needed to change their habits - which today drive them straight to Windows.

  • Prediction... (Score:4, Interesting)

    by itsdapead (734413) on Monday December 10, @08:16AM (#21640667)

    These devices aren't going to directly hit MS's products - what they could do is cost them mindshare and threaten the future of their monopoly.

    Products like the eeePC occupy a precarious niche just below cheap "regular" laptops - put a bigger screen and a CD drive on them and there'll be a cheaper Dell laptop - so while they may be successful for their manufacturers they're not going to make a big dent in PC sales. People will buy them as "extra" machines for kids or as spare "take anywhere" machines (don't buy a £2000 ultra-portable - buy a £1000 desktop or large screen laptop plus an eeePC for when you don't need the power or don't want to risk carrying your main machine). But if they find that, out-of-the-box, they can connect to web and EMAIL and open most of their documents with these things called "Firefox", "Thunderbird" and "Open Office" then they might have their eyes opened to other possibilities.

    Remember, MS's real monopoly is Office, not Windows. How many lUsers have you met who, when asked what version of windows they are running, respond with their Office version? However, I was in a school (in England) recently and saw a big (homemade) poster on the wall saying "Haven't got MS Office at home? Have you tried the free alternative from www.OpenOffice.org?" - so there is hope for the world.

    If I were MS right now I'd be busily developing something like "Vista Lite Edition" that could be sold on a memory stick alongside eeePCs and the like for about $25, probably including a stripped down office. ISTR they did do something similar in some countries but it was perceived as "Windows - crippled edition". It might be an easier sell if it was linked to built-to-a-price "appropriate technology" hardware.

  • Cannot or will not? (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Bright Apollo (988736) on Monday December 10, @08:19AM (#21640681) Journal
    I think there's a potential goldmine for Microsoft just looming off to the side.

    If Microsoft made Windows 2000 Pro available for $20 per copy in 2008, then shuttered it; and Windows XP Pro/64 Pro for $40 in 2008, then 2009, then shuttered it, imagine how easy it would be for many 'cloned' copies to get right. Now imagine how easy it would be for Microsoft to compete against Linux in the low-end market. Microsoft would be able to say -- which Linux cannot -- "Our OS works with Microsoft Office natively, including Exchange". The real cash cow is untouched, i.e. Office, and Microsoft finally gets into the "sell the blades, not the razor" business once and for all.

    -BA

  • They can only compete through shady business practices, bribery and plain old crookery unless they change their ways. They (still) have enough money to stop business for a few years, work on a lightweight kernel (you know, those that run on any x86 with 16MB RAM) and some good software practices that makes it more open (maybe not open source, but at least more transparent) and more within the legal constraints of today's anti-trust requirements. As soon as anyone can build another shell around Windows we'd be far better off since there are a lot of smart people outside of Microsoft.

    I hate Microsoft, not because of their products (although they could do better) but because of the way they treat their CUSTOMERS (we're not consumers) and partners and the way they treat the market ever since they gained major market share. They have to change though, they had it for the last 12 years, they can be happy. If Microsoft doesn't pull an Apple they will go the way of SCO or if they're lucky IBM.
  • et tu ? (Score:1)

    by nfractal (1039722) on Monday December 10, @08:38AM (#21640873)
    even selling Vista at $40 apiece ??
  • Linux fanboy hypocrisy (Score:2, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 10, @08:44AM (#21640937)
    More /. hypocrisy.

    You guys always talk of Linux taking over, but at the same time demand that govt. tie Microsoft down in monopoly regulations. If Linux is going to take over, then Windows is not a monopoly, by definition. Which is it slashdot? Is Windows doomed and therefore not a monopoly or is it the other way around?
    • Re:Linux fanboy hypocrisy (Score:4, Interesting)

      by HikingStick (878216) on Monday December 10, @09:11AM (#21641223)
      Under U.S. law, a company does not need to be a true monopoly (i.e., the only player in a sector) to be classified a monopoly. The threshold there (imlu, ianal) is whether or not the company yields monopoly-like influence over the market, including the creation of significant barriers to entry for potential competitors.

      That said, the growing success of Linux (and the Mac OS)will ensure that one day--who knows how soon--Microsoft will use the Linux saturation levels as an argument against sanctions it faced (faces) as a monopoly. That's when the OS war will finally reach the point of full engagement.
    • Re:Linux fanboy hypocrisy by AxeTheMax (Score:1) Monday December 10, @09:15AM
    • More AC BS by hellfire (Score:3) Monday December 10, @09:37AM
    • Re:Linux fanboy hypocrisy by lightsaber777 (Score:1) Monday December 10, @09:47AM
      • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
    • Who is predicting Linux "taking over" ? by walterbyrd (Score:2) Monday December 10, @09:54AM
    • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
  • by wvmarle (1070040) on Monday December 10, @08:50AM (#21641005)
    If Linux becomes the O/S of choice for cheap hardware, then I hope GNU/Linux will not get the name of "poor man's operating system". While it may be free of charge, it is not is a label the software deserves. Oh well Lindows or whatever it's now could be "poor man's Windows", they deserve that I guess. Seems to be the market they're targeting anyways.
  • Eee (Score:4, Interesting)

    by wytcld (179112) on Monday December 10, @09:12AM (#21641237) Homepage
    The ASUS Eees are good. Yeah, MS is set to sell XP for them for another $40, but their default PDA=like screens are idiot-proof, and it's simple to switch them to a clean, ASUS-customized KDE. The screen is good. The keyboard's good. There's nothing cheap about them except maybe the button bar beneath the touchpad - and you can get the same function from the touchpad itself. And there are no rough edges in the Linux experience. It's not for games, but it boots and loads apps plenty fast. It even has mplayer working out of the box - no extra installation steps for a modern browsing experience (as with, say, Ubuntu).
  • Big surprise. (Score:3, Funny)

    by DaveV1.0 (203135) <slashdot@@@veillon...us> on Monday December 10, @09:31AM (#21641461) Journal

    "Desktop Linux has a recent commentary on the inevitable growth of Linux on the cheaper end of the desktop market


    So, a web site dedicated to Linux says that Linux is going to take over a market segment. Big surprise. Expecting anything different would be like expecting Microsoft to say Linux is the best option for a market segment.

    This is not news. It is not even opinion. It is propaganda.
  • by kvezach (1199717) on Monday December 10, @09:48AM (#21641655)
    I'm not so sure. Or if it will, it won't be as easy as one might imagine.
    The great strength of Linux and OSS projects is that the developers are the users. But the coders rarely use low-end hardware, which causes software to have errors or performance problems even though it works for the coders. There's an example of this, as it relates to file systems, here [sabi.co.uk], and I think the "there's no memory leak/fragmentation!" stuff in Firefox can be partly blamed on this effect too -- if you have gigs of memory, you won't see it.
  • Microsoft can cut the price of Windows a long long way without "bleeding red ink", especially if they strip it down vertically by removing things like the Citrix code from the hypothetical "XP lite". Whether they're smart enough to do that instead of crippling it with restrictions, that's another question.
  • by hodet (620484) on Monday December 10, @09:57AM (#21641783)
    That is good. We have 40,000 desktops\laptops and other functional workstation in our organization and we are almost completed upgrading to XP from 2K. (I shit you not) Looks like our systems folks saw that we only had 26000 users so they only purchased that many XP licenses and Microsoft is giving us some heat on that. I can only imagine if they cut XP support and force our org to upgrade to Vista what a world of hurt that would cause. The sad part is that we are so locked in I don't see how we could even switch. We are starting to hear rumbling in the org about considering Linux but I think it's just some chest thumping to get a better Microsoft deal.
  • IT'S STILL A WIN FOR MICROSOFT (Score:3, Insightful)

    by asphaltjesus (978804) on Monday December 10, @10:36AM (#21642333)
    One of the myriad of benefits of owning a monopoly is the ability to set price. (price maker) Economic history is full of examples where the monopoly owner temporarily lowers prices to eliminate low-end competitors.

    This low-end desktop market is owned by Microsoft. They allow it to exist to give the illusion of competition. If they want that segment, they'll take it simply by throwing some money at it and eliminate the competitor. Meanwhile, the low-end provider scrapes by. Novell certainly isn't going to beat Microsoft. Mark Shuttleworth doesn't have the resources to do it either.

    Where it counts, Linux distros are simply a negotiating tool for enterprises/agencies to get a lower price/bigger bribe out of Microsoft. That lower price is STILL HIGHER than the price in a vaguely competitive market.

    Vista? Oh yeah, you'll be able to pirate it just like XP because every software company knows that's the best way to introduce future customers.
    • Nope by Stephen Ma (Score:2) Monday December 10, @02:46PM
  • by aitikin (909209) on Monday December 10, @10:41AM (#21642415)
    I love the prospect, but I really doubt the likelihood of it. The only places that actually sold machines for sub $500 with Linux preinstalled as the only option was that Walmart PC and the OLPC. Most people are not going to go out of their way to use an operating system that neither they nor any of their friends have heard of, muchless used.

    I taught my friend how to use Ubutnu on this old thinkpad that I helped him get. It took me 2 hours to answer his questions, but that's because I was right there and could just show him flat out and he had never owned a computer in his life, so he never got used to a Mac or Windows. I know for a fact that he's to afraid to actually post on forums because he's never used them before in his life.
  • by LynnwoodRooster (966895) on Monday December 10, @10:51AM (#21642565) Journal
    Take a look at the Sunday paper ads right now. Circuit City, Best Buy, Office Depot, Staples, and dozens of other stores selling desktops AND laptops for well under $500 pre-loaded with Windows. Windows is already in the $250 and up market. Meaning the ENTIRE market.
  • Obviously (Score:2)

    by jandersen (462034) on Monday December 10, @11:02AM (#21642749)
    I have always thought that was more or less inevitable. If we make a couple of bold and sweeping generalisations, we can say that:

    1. The market is finite.
    2. MS has expanded to the max extent.
    3. Linux is growing.

    The inevitable conclusion is that if anything else than MS grows, MS must shrink. If this continues long enough, there will come a tipping point. The thing is, the bigger Linux is in the marketplace, the easier will it be to persuade new users to join (up to a point, of course; if Linux ends up being 99% or so, there won't be many new users to recruit).

    It doesn't really matter that many or most OSS project are sponsored by companies; even if they all suddenly lost their sponsors, there would still be a number of people who would continue, simply because they can and they like to do it. Think of Stallman or Linus - nobody paid them in the beginning, but GNU Linux is now the de facto standard for UNIX. Linux will keep growing as long as it is free and fun to program. Windows, on the other hand, is not free and is long ago ceased to be any fun programming for it.
  • by core_dump_0 (317484) on Monday December 10, @11:24AM (#21643083)
    I have no experience with Macs, but I probably never will, since their prices are WAY too expensive. If Apple decided to lower their prices, Mac would kill Windows overnight. Apple has all the fame right now (iPod, etc). I'm a computer tech, and some of my clients have asked me about Mac, and what it is. Honestly, I don't think that "Linux for the 'average Joe'" will go anywhere.
  • by luwain (66565) on Monday December 10, @11:30AM (#21643209)
    It is doubtful that Linux will take over the low-end PC market. Most people buy their PCs at large retailers (like Staples, Circuit City, Best Buy, and the soon-to-be-defunct COMPUSA), order them online from a company like DELL, or from a small local computer store. Few of these venues provide and/or promote machines with Linux pre-installed. The average consumer has a very vague idea of what an Operating system is. While many lay-people realize that Macintoshes and PCs are "different", very, very few understand the distinctions between OS X, OS 9, Windows XP, Vista, etc... and are even less literate about the myriad Linux distributions. Very, very few lay-people have even heard of Linux, so they don't even think about asking for it when shopping for a PC. The retailers pose even a bigger problem -- while shopping for a PC recently (helping a senior-citizen friend of mine) Best Buy and Circuit City wanted $400.00 to "downgrade" the PCs they were selling to Windows XP. Linux wasn't even an option. Another factor is that people are used to doing things a certain way, so there's a lot of resistance to radical change. Many are finding Vista difficult to deal with (actually, Ubuntu may be easier for an XP user to transition to than Vista -- but that's a different issue).
    Also, there's just not any killer apps that mandate Linux. Sure, Wine can run a lot of Windows apps, but then that begs the question "Why run windows on a Linux machine, when you can just get a Windows machine?". The fact that PCs are cheap and that Linux is "free" doesn't really give Linux as big an advantage as many think. Price isn't as important as exposure. Go to any mall and ask any 50 random people about Linux and I guarantee that you will get 40 - 50 blank stares. Then, in that same mall, try and find someplace selling PCs with Linux pre-installed. This is not an indication that Linux is about to take over any market.
  • by qazwart (261667) on Monday December 10, @11:49AM (#21643585) Homepage
    It is extremely important for Microsoft to be able to maintain absolute dominance in the PC market, and Microsoft will drop the price of Windows to pennies if it keeps them relevant in the PC market. That's the real purpose of Vista Home Basic. You'll see the price of Vista Home Basic drop to $1 in the near future if it keeps PC companies from going over to Linux.

    Microsoft needs Windows on all PCs because it keeps licensing issues simple for them. Very few people steal a Windows license because it is already on their PC. Besides, what happens in the consumer market will affect the corporate market. If Linux can establish a hold on the consumer end, it'll start creeping into the corporate market. Microsoft will use every penny in its coffers to prevent that from happening.

    I'm not anti or pro Microsoft. I just know that Microsoft will do everything to protect its Windows market. It's not just the operating system. It's also the Windows office market. Linux PCs don't run Microsoft Office, therefore home users might not be comfortable with Microsoft Office at work, and they'll insist on OpenOffice or whatever application most of these Linux PCs will come with.

    Microsoft isn't going down without a fight.
    • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
  • by shogarth (668598) on Monday December 10, @11:55AM (#21643673)

    While I don't disagree with most of the conclusions in the article, the financial reasoning is wrong. The purchase cost of a computer is the smallest part of the lifetime costs. If you take his theoretical 100 PC environment, you can expect to need a full-time support position (industry averages are between 100 and 200 systems per support tech). If you pay him/her peanuts ($15/hour) then your cost just went up by $30k/year for the (let's say) four year life expectancy of the equipment. That makes the numbers $177k vs $234k; the percentage savings just dropped through the floor.

    It gets worse if you look at the real cost of support people. Windows support techincians are easy to find. Linux support technicians are not (I say this as someone who has tried to hire dozens of support staff at levels from Mac-Hand-Holder-3rd-Class to Unix-Minor-Deity). If you factor in the cost differences of the two skill sets, the savings gets even slimmer.

    Finally, the analysis ignores the reality that people like to use the software with which they are familiar. I've run experiments with family and while I (mostly) like OpenOffice, it makes some people crazy because it is different. Non-geek users don't want to learn new software, they want to get their target task completed then go do something else. If you add the additional training/hand-holding to the mix you can pretty much kiss the rest of the theoretical cost savings goodbye.

    This is why Windows still dominates the desktop. When you look at the total cost model, there isn't a lot of savings to be had while there are plenty of potential headaches.

    To my mind the biggest risk MSFT has taken in the last decade is the set of changes to the UI in Office 2007. Since 1994, there has been essentially no learning curve to an Office upgrade and now there is one. Suddenly, the non-MSFT office suite is the one with better legacy skill support.

  • by DaveCBio (659840) on Monday December 10, @12:18PM (#21644043)
    When someone gets a cheap PC from Walmart or wherever and gets it home is they get a friend with a pirated copy of XP to install it. Just because a cheap ass PC sells with Linux doesn't mean that's what the person is choosing for an OS.
  • by CheekyBastard (1142171) on Monday December 10, @01:32PM (#21645265)
    Without doubt, 2008 will be the year of the Linux desktop.
  • by grantus (261016) on Monday December 10, @02:38PM (#21646141)
    about Linux taking over the desktop now?

    How has that worked out so far?
  • by korekrash (853240) on Monday December 10, @03:05PM (#21646507)
    If I had a dollar for every time I heard "Linux will become mainstream" or how "Linux will make MS lose money" I would have more money than Bill right now. If anyone is making MS lose money these days it is Steve Jobs and Apple.....
  • the Linux Kernel.
  • I think it IS interesting that traditionally, Linux really found its "niche" with older, used hardware that people were trying to recycle. Costs of new hardware have dropped so much though, we're seeing a new situation here. The cost of the typical Microsoft pre-loaded operating system on a new PC can account for a large portion of its total cost.

    If you can convince a consumer to pay more for a higher-end system, then he/she is still buying a piece of hardware with a price-point more like what we're used to seeing. But the trend is, consumers who don't need that much power, or that many "bells and whistles" (or who simply can't afford them) are buying budget-priced boxes with warranties, vs. buying other people's used/discarded PCs.

    The high-end purchases are starting to go towards Apple, since they offer a complete hardware+software bundled solution with "elegance" and "style" (and they can all boot into Windows XP or Vista anyway, if one is so inclined).

    The low-end is steadily creeping towards Linux, leaving Microsoft selling primarily to the "middle of the road" PCs. (By this, I mean name-brand boxes like HP/Compaq, Gateway or Dell, but offerings of theirs in that $400-600 price-point, just under where new Apple Macs generally start out at.) That and the "media center PC" niche, which Microsoft currently has a stronghold on - because no other OS fully supports DVR functionality and the like, integrated into it.
  • HSD (Score:2)

    by nurb432 (527695) on Monday December 10, @05:51PM (#21648885) Homepage Journal
    They will just step in and 'disapprove' of any open source 'hacker OS' and confiscate your PC, for your safety of course ( or is that for the children, or to combat terrorism.. ).
  • by rtrifts (61627) on Monday December 10, @05:54PM (#21648927) Homepage
    Thesis: In the sub-$500 computer market, Linux comes fully featured for most users at a price of FREE. Microsoft cannot compete against this price. The end result will be a loss of market share for MS in this sector of the market.

    There is a grain of truth in this... but only a little. Worse, the author then goes on to discuss the cost of IT in an office setting and basically runs off with this data in the exact opposite direction of where he should be taking it. He's missing the point.

    When you are talking about ultra- cheap PCs this author is talking about - as currently marketed - you are talking about the lowest-end consumer machines. Up until Vista, the consumer who wanted to run Microsoft products but didn't want to pay for them simply pirated those products, making them "free". That's reality. It continues to be reality.

    The problem is that Microsoft sees their largest future growth sector in the consumers who are using their products for free - and want to force them to pay for it. They have been able to ratchet up this strategy because there was no viable competition....until Ubuntu.

    All things being equal, if Microsoft sees that consumers will be moving away from their products in order to become familiar with another product line, MS will pause. The threat is not in losing a sale to a consumer who didn't want to buy your product (and isn't buying somebody else's, either). The threat is allowing a large number of people to become very familiar with a competing product line - to the point where they are comfortable with it and will tell management in the business they work at that they are able to use it without any issues.

    And THAT is a BIG problem for Microsoft, long term. That chips away at the superior good/inferior good reputation that has made them market leaders.

    The solution to that problem is simply to scale back the anti-piracy measures in the Windows-flavor-of-the-day so that people can continue to choose the superior product at a cost of $0.00. That strategy made Bill Gates the richest man in the world. They are well able to run with the ball in that direction again.

    The BIG issue is that software bloat in terms of resource requirements makes running Windows on these very cheap PCs difficult for MS. The Window-flavor-of-the-day - even if pirated - won't run on a eeePC. That's a serious problem for MS.

    I predict MS will simply design a less resource intensive home and sub-compact OS that can run on these systems. And it will make the DRM/Piracy protection on it relatively easy to circumvent - and thereby preserves its medium term market share.

    If it does not do this - the long terms risks are significant.

    In any event - the one thing we have seen over the course of time as a result of MS' monopoly is that hardware prices trend down and software OS prices trend up. That decline in hardware price has now reached a dangerous crossover point. When the hardware comes down in price so far that the software cost of the OS doubles the price of the machine - you reach a crossover point where that whole software cost becomes impossible to justify.

    And that trend keeps getting worse for MS. IT does not, under ANY REASONABLE SCENARIO **EVER** get better for MS in the future. It just keeps getting worse and worse...and still worse.

    Will MS come crashing down? No. It will simply do the one thing to adapt that it has never really done over the course of its corporate history: it will be forced to lower its prices on its core product lines in order to maintain its market position.

    Hence, Microsoft will be less profitable in the future. In the result, Microsoft's best days are , indeed, behind it.

  • by pl1ght (836951) on Monday December 10, @06:04PM (#21649027)
    Seriously guys. We ALL know that Linux isn't going to penetrate any low cost PC market. Dell hardly sold any Ubuntus, the Lindows experiment was a failure and most of those sold because they were cheap and could be formatted to install pirated copies of Windows anyway. The mass Market doesnt care about Linux. They care about easy. That means Windows. Sad but true.
  • Re:After burners are outlawed. (Score:5, Interesting)

    by ciaohound (118419) on Monday December 10, @07:42AM (#21640433) Homepage
    "people who want Windows will pay for it"

    Yeah, but they probably aren't the low end, now, are they? I think a lot of people are fed up with virus software updates and other fine Windows features. The high end of the market is moving to Mac, and the low end -- at least the more knowledgeable among them -- are moving to Linux. I live near Howard County, Maryland, which has an award-winning public library system. The free internet access is spectacular there; walk in, sit down, start using, no waiting, no library card required. Guess what operating system and applications it uses? And no one complains about it not being Windows.
  • Re:Apples and oranges (Score:3, Interesting)

    by rolfc (842110) on Monday December 10, @07:43AM (#21640443)
    I wouldn't say that! I would say that the linux-solution would be superior functionality for the money, and probably in absolute functionality as well. An Exchange server farm has a limited featureset compared to a debian-server.
  • Apples and apples (Score:5, Insightful)

    by IBBoard (1128019) on Monday December 10, @07:49AM (#21640477) Homepage
    They're comparing Granny Smiths apples to Golden Delicious apples:

    Set of computers that can run all required email and office apps (the latest versions) along with a server to support the mail etc, all based on Linux

    Vs

    Set of computers that can run all required email and office apps (the latest versions) along with a server to support the mail etc, all based on Vista

    The only difference is that the base specs required for one is much higher than the other, which is the whole point of the article.

    Okay, so it might not be as viable in a huge company where everyone (especially admins) already have Windows training, but for a ~100 person or less SME (Small/Medium Enterprise) then the huge savings on costs would be a boon.
    • Re:Apples and apples by SargentDU (Score:2) Monday December 10, @08:08AM
    • SMEs aren't interested in Linux (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Colin Smith (2679) on Monday December 10, @08:18AM (#21640675)
      You have it almost exactly backwards. Speaking from bitter experience.

      Their costs towards their IT infrastructure simply aren't large enough to worry about license costs. Microsoft already have this market. SMEs simply buy PCs with windows already installed, and use SBS on the back end. Their savings from Linux are in the thousands, not hundreds of thousands or millions. It isn't worth their while to switch. Especially given the fact they can't afford to hire competent admins and so are stuck with whomever is locally available.

      Large companies on the other hand, are a completely different kettle of fish. They can save millions by making use of Linux, and that's exactly what they do. The CTO or CIO's may or may not be aware of it but pretty much every large company out there has Linux just about everywhere from file servers to RDBMS servers to web application servers. They can afford to hire competent admins who can run Linux as well as their other Unix systems and who understand the mathematics of I.T. systems.

      The market for Linux is not SMEs. I've been there and tried to sell it. The real market for Linux is on the big end. Multinationals, governments etc. They can save vast sums.
       
    • Re:Apples and apples by Carrot007 (Score:2) Monday December 10, @11:41AM
    • 1 reply beneath your current threshold.
  • by iBod (534920) on Monday December 10, @08:20AM (#21640689)
    >>the gaming machines. That is where the big win is and where people are most likely to be influenced.

    Developing modern, mainstream games is a hugely expensive process - akin to making a movie.

    What, exactly, is going to persuade a major game developer to develop a title for a highly marginal platform (Linux) when it already has to cover Windows PCs and the console market?
  • Re:Apples and oranges (Score:3, Informative)

    by SharpFang (651121) on Monday December 10, @08:30AM (#21640797) Homepage Journal
    They are not equivalent but that's not entirely the question.
    The question is do they provide satisfactory functionality?

    Because actually, 100 sub-$200 PC systems running Win98SE would probably work faster and be cheaper in means of TCO, and quite likely provide all the functionality needed as well (with exception of stability and security).

    If I need email, office, file sharing and some, get the work done in acceptable comfort, you ask yourself what you need. You may get Vista and $1000 PCs, you can get XP and $500 PCs, or Linux and $300 PCs and the user experience and efficiency of work will be the same. You can get $150 PCs and Win98 too, but the risk of data loss and intrusion is prohibitory, otherwise it would have the work done as well. This way Linux can compete just fine and seems to be the best choice.

    OTOH if you need a development environment of 4GB RAM quad-core 4GHZ CPU computers for all the 100 desktops, the price difference between OSes and their efficiency overhead becomes much lower. Linux doesn't fare just as well here, especially if you need to run WINE to have some essential apps working. If you need a high-end hardware not because it's required to run the OS, but because your application requires it, choice of the OS should be guided by other factors than just price of purchase or TCO. Although not disqualified here (by far), Linux doesn't have the upper hand of "vastly cheaper setup to get the same things done" here.
  • by walterbyrd (182728) on Monday December 10, @09:16AM (#21641279)
    Your post, for example, was modded down.

    This happens all the time with msft hot-button issues discussed on slashdot. Pro-msft posts are modded way up, anti-msft posts are modded way down. And yeah, the msft shills flood the place.
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  • Re:Linux is shit (Score:4, Funny)

    by calebt3 (1098475) on Monday December 10, @10:03AM (#21641883) Homepage
    You should have included the "Netcraft confirms it:"
  • Re:Linux is shit (Score:1, Offtopic)

    by QuickFox (311231) on Monday December 10, @10:56AM (#21642649)
    *BSD and Linux are both great. If you want very easy install, try PC-BSD [pcbsd.org]. Very nice.
  • Re:poppycock. (Score:1)

    by Hymer (856453) on Monday December 10, @02:42PM (#21646167)
    No, they can't... the courts in EU has already told MS (and OEM's) exactly how much Windows costs... and neither MS nor the OEM's were especially happy about it.
  • by Almahtar (991773) on Monday December 10, @04:35PM (#21647861)
    You just bit, my friend. The troll most likely was hoping to watch as nerds battle over Linux vs. BSD. Sort of like starting a bar brawl and slipping out the back door.

    Remember, kids: Don't feed the trolls!
  • Re:Linux is shit (Score:2)

    by cbiltcliffe (186293) on Tuesday December 11, @01:20PM (#21659201) Homepage Journal
    This should be modded "daemon", not "troll".....
  • by Grampaw Willie (631616) on Tuesday December 11, @01:50PM (#21659787) Homepage Journal

    No one cares about low end pcs running linux
    -- anonymous coward
    every board i ever used has a guy like a/c
  • 15 replies beneath your current threshold.