Attempts to Count Linux Users Remain Pointless 304
An anonymous reader writes "A great deal of attention is paid to numbers, but rarely does one actually ask what these numbers mean. One problem that many people have been trying to tackle is gauging the extent of use of Free software, including Linux. Questionnaires are not a solution here and neither are statistics, which are usually derived from the wrong data. The following article looks at the various challenges at hand and concludes that the growth rate of Linux is likely to remain an enigma."
words from microsoft: (Score:5, Funny)
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Anyone who uses this socialist junk is anti-American, and you're a fool if you think Linux is a real, quality software proje
hmm. (Score:3, Insightful)
(1) a lot of foaming at the mouth rants and statistics from Linux evangelists
(2) some distie bashing thrown in for good measure
(3) the inevitable vista comments and hints about massive marketing campaigns
(4) maybe some mention of PCs shipped with Linux pre-installed
(5) if we are really lucky maybe the odd referenced fact
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2008 will be the year of the Linux Desktop, so it's all irrelevant now!
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Questionnaires are not a solution here and neither are statistics, which are usually derived from the wrong data.
Ah yes, damned statistics; always getting in the way when I'm trying to gather reliable... statistics. And don't get me started on asking questions, that's clearly the worst way to get answers to things I want to know.
Really now, what are they trying to
Re:hmm. (Score:5, Funny)
Also, did you know that the longest recorded frog jump was 33 feet 5.5 inches [exploratorium.edu]? Amazing!
Re:hmm. -- you forgot (Score:3, Funny)
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You have one thing right: no one is better informed after reading your rant.
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Ha! I out-meta-commented you, so neener-neener!
As a subversive (Score:2)
Re:hmm. (Score:5, Interesting)
Then a friends company (not a small one mind you) went off to do a linux-on-the-desktop study as alot of their windows agreements were about to become eol so to speak. At first I thought this was a bargaining tool to get cheaper software, but I was surprised to find that not only was it about replacing the desktop but also the server side functionality. It turned out they'd started looking at linux desktops because they'd managed to gain some linux servers to replace most costly machines (some windows, but alot were aix or solaris) - interestingly, alot of the now-linux server hardware are sun x86'ers running centos. As a result they took on some linux types to administer them, and it grew - they replaced a few non-essential file servers. changed a few mail gateways to linux. Moved proxies to squid. As their CTO put it "i was suddenly surrounded by linux and didn't realise it until i looked at the balance sheets, all we are paying for is hardware and alot of the things we are using linux for are internally grown and maintained. I started to think we weren't paying for licenses were we should be". One of the things that did take him by supprise is that half his IT department by this time had switched to a linux desktop and used mail thru imap or some such (some were using windows still thru vmware player or from a terminal server running outlook). Apparently if you pxe boot off alot of the networks, you'll get a pxelinux menu that allows you to boot various things like dsl or install a customized ubuntu (though i didn't see that myself). I know they're also running some systems with RHEL too because they "feel good" to know they have support.
To sum it up, i was quite shocked. 12 months ago I was feeling "unix was coming to an end" and feeling quite disappointed by that, but I feel quite elated by what i've seen lately - Especially so in Australia where linux has had a really tough time of it.
Having said all that, i think the author wasn't just referring to linux users but also the users of FOSS replacements for commercial applications (like open office, gimp, etc). I can't say i've seen a tonne of that myself, but its not uncommon to see things like gaim, firefox, jedit, eclipse - smaller things really.
It will be very interesting to see what the next 12months brings us.
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Then you, and only you, might want to think twice about installing this package:
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Yep. That is what makes it so dangerous... you can actually install this OMGWTF anonymous reporting spyware yourself!
seriously though, I think I recall knopmyth had installed by default - not sure.
Anyway, I do have popularity-contest installed on all my machines because I want the apps I use represented in the chance they gain more support upstream.
It depends on your definition. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Then throw all the NSLU users and goodness knows what other little device that used Linux.
Now for fun throw in everybody that uses Google
Everybody uses Linux.
We're all users (Score:2)
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That is very true. I think the first step in measuring something is defining
Re:It depends on your definition. (Score:4, Interesting)
A point that is not actually made in TFA. I was talking with my father-in-law the other day, and we were discussing my software-engineering job, and that I use Linux preferentially simply because it's so much more reliable and "commercial grade" despite it's being free.
He announces to me that "Well, that's all fine and dandy, but I'm never going to bother learning that...". So I pointed to the Dish DVR under his TV and the Linksys router next to his Windows PC, and indicated that he was already using it more than he was using Windows!
This is a point that TFA didn't cover at all. The desktop is losing its dominant position.
Firefox (Score:5, Funny)
1) Require a national ID number to download any Linux distro, and validation of ownership of this number through an in-person meeting with the local authorities.
2) Have the software "phone home" that it's actually being used, when it's used.
3) Close the source so that 2) can be facilitated.
4) Made the ID numbers and contact information in 1) publicly available so anyone can audit the official count of users.
There, done, you've got everyone counted. Wasn't that easy?
Re:Firefox (Score:4, Funny)
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(Editor's note: for those of you viewing pr0n at home, just a show of hand will suffice)
Or how about:
(Drill Sgt.): Alright maggots, COUNT OFF:
(thousands/millions of linux users): ONE!
Dismissed! Thanks for coming.
(Ed note: for those of you still viewing pr0n at home, don't take that literally. Please.)
Get the genuine advantage (Score:3, Funny)
2) Have the software "phone home" that it's actually being used, when it's used.
Yes! Every day Linux Genuine Advantage [microsoft.com] helps customers all over the world who are victims of software piracy get genuine. If you got your Linux for free, you should upgrade today to get the following exciting new features:
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I call bullshit. Most of these also apply to Windows, the main advantage in counting windows being "Genuine Advantage" Still, my workplace has a MS site license and is NATted; are we fully and accurately counted? What about global piracy rates of Windows
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QFT.
As a side note, I've always felt the precision vs accuracy thing was a bit odd. What good is one without the other? Being precise and innacurate is pointless because you -know- the number is probably wrong, but it's always the same wrong. Being imprecise and accurate is pointless because your numbers are right, but you don't know what they mean. (They're -right-, but right for what?
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Not possible (Score:3, Interesting)
Plus are you talking about just Server/desktop? If you count the millions of embedded devices that run gnu/linux I'm sure it would be considered the worlds most popular OS. It's all in how you want to swing the numbers.
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eg, you can extrapolate that Linux adoption has doubled if ubuntu downloads have doubled, even if you don't have the full figures.
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Well, duh. (Score:5, Interesting)
It might not be entirely pointless to try, but I'm reasonably convinced of two things: I don't care (and don't need to) about the exact numbers, and it's growing.
I don't care largely because the software meets *my* needs. That's the most important thing to me. An assurance that it will continue to do so is also nice, and there are clearly a lot of people developing for it. I'm not worried on that front. People who have a big investment in *other people* using Linux (especially when said other people aren't developers) confuse me. (Well, except when they're trying to sell Linux software / services.)
It's growing. I can't tell you how much, but I can offer the anecdotal evidence that the responses I get to "I run Linux" have changed over the past few years. It's not always "What's that?" anymore. It's not uncommon to get questions about it in response -- people want to know how well it works, whether it runs the same software as Windows, etc. I just answer their questions and am polite and friendly about it.
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What kind of evangelism is that? You should browbeat them into submission and threaten them with eternal damnation in the pits of Redmond if they don't convert!
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I have an idea (Score:2, Funny)
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couldn't you just (Score:5, Interesting)
Ask them if they use Linux of not
Extrapolate the results.
Seems to work when there counting all kinds of other things that don't have a direct method of counting them.
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How would you do it? Call people up? Sorry, that excludes all the people who use only VoIP or cell phones, because you can't call them. So, you know that your survey is already limited to mouth-breathers who still use POTS and talk to survey people.
Am I going out on a limb to say that that class of people has markedly different charasteristics than those outside of it, especially on Linux?
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When in line at the supermarket, ask people.
When waiting to pick up your kids at daycare, strike up a conversation about computers with the other parents, and find out what they use. Or ask other parents at the next PTA meeting.
Ask others at your church or coven.
At the next meeting of your model rocketry club or RC airplane club, find out what people are using.
Next time you are at BestBuy buying blank CDs, or a thumb drive, or anything else in th
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The gist of the article seems to be that no counting method is perfect and therefore gives you no useful information. In fact, an imperfect counting method can still give some information, and the information from independent methods can be combined. This is done all the time in science, for instance. Does the original author think that marine biologists get counts of fish
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How many people know they're using Linux on their phones? Do they know Linux runs a lot of DVRs? Do those numbers even count? The problem with counting Linux users is everyone is technically a Linux user. Do we then just count Linux desktop users? Is that number significant in any way?
Just a few honest questions here. You won't find much in the way of linux desktop OS users although their numbers are indeed growing. At what rate I have no idea as I believe that is hard to measure given.
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Ah, an Onion-esk headline (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, it's not so much that they are pointless - just that they are useless. There is a point to knowing how many Linux boxes are out there (demographic studies, confidence in support longevity as a function of install base, etc.) But most known techniques for counting remain useless.
To be honest, this might be just as well. Any technology that COULD count successfully all the Linux boxes out there would be a bit scary - many people probably don't WANT anyone to be able to know what they are running. (OK so nmap can probably figure out anyway...)
Large scale counts like this are a difficult proposition - the only things that approaches being successful in this respect are probably automobile registration systems, census systems, and the tax system - in other words, massive systems with compulsary reporting for every existing component member.
Now, of more interest might be to work with the BSA for a while (or someone else who has the authority to open random IT doors at random) and do an anonymous study of deployment percentages at random under guise of a random license check or soemthing. Probably (hopefully!) not legal but it would be a way to get statistically meaningful results if the sample was chosen well.
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Well there is a very old and very well-tested "technology" that could determine the number of Linux users, and all without invading privacy, or installing software on people's computers. It's called: "statistical surveys."
Yes, surveys are imperfect. They have error bars. However if the sample size is big enough, they give a rea
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I'd prefer that an operating system, or the software we run from day to day be fairly generic and taken for granted, but we live in a world where the average person believes software, if not downloaded on those rare occasions from some obscure website, is available in shrink-wrapped packages only. And then from a vendor who, we assume, will support that software (the corrollary being that everyone who writes software makes a li
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One thing is for sure... the Dutch will never be able to keep any secrets.
Seems to me (Score:2)
We can figure this out (Score:2, Funny)
the Ballmer index (Score:2, Funny)
Equally pointless to count Windows users (Score:2)
No real way to count them, either.
For instance, I have two Windows 98 boxes in my basement I got from an auction. Am I a Windows user? Do I count twice? Or not at all since they'll never be powered up (got them for cheap long ago, never used them, will probably donate them to Goodwill).
And how about all those pirate boxes in Asia? Do they count or not?
If I had to guess, I'd say that WGA was (at least partially) an attempt to count windows users. And we all know how that worked out.
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Not possible. Trolls can't get cancer - they regenerate. [wikipedia.org]
Count Yum/Apt repo hits? (Score:2)
Why not just count yum/apt repository/mirror hits by unique IP?
Okay so that underestimates those in big organisations who run their own mirror, and those running old distros that don't check for updates, but it would be a damn sight more accurate than most of the other methods.
The big distros (Red Hat, Ubuntu etc) could even sponsor an independent body to oversee the fair collection of the data from the repos and mirrors.
What I'd like to know is (Score:2)
For the Bogglers (Score:3, Insightful)
For those boggling over WHY this matters, try and keep in mind that Microsoft, Apple, et al provide these figures regularly. Whether or not they're valid is a source of debate, but some kind of numbers are out there. This is how we get to say things like 'Windows is 90% of the market', etc.
Perhaps we need a 'BeCounted' daemon that merely tracks the stats of those that would like to be counted? It would still be a fraction, but if that number were out there we'd at least have some kind of data point to discuss. Perhaps FSF or GNU or some other party would host the servers that collect the data? You could even make the thing multi-platform, reporting on specific apps, and providing other useful data and pitch it to Google and company. Not that they're not already tracking this in their own apps, but this would be OSS. You could have all sorts of opt-in/opt-out toggles for it and it would be transparent as to what it tracked. You could also have it gather from different places and homogenize the data after it was submitted. The possibilities abound.
Maybe there already is such a creature? If we supporters of Free-with-a-capital-F want to be relevant moving forward, a detailed head-count could certainly be a step in the right direction.
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Bingo! If this were moved a bit more towards the generic, and more-widely adopted, we'd be in business.
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That could use a little charisma, but yeah, it's pretty close.
Does anyone know why it hasn't caught on? Seems like something like this would make a nice addition to the 'base' installs of the major distro's.
Nobody has a clue how many people are using Linux (Score:2)
NEVER Count Linux Users (Score:2)
1. Big companies will crush most of the smaller distros. If anyone is old enough to remember before the ipod was launched, they would tell you there were many more mp3-audio devices. Some of them were interesting. The entry of Apple crushed most of them for a product that wasn't substantially better and more expensive.
2. Big companies use research to justify market entry. They will create a Linux distro mono-culture. Not only will they create a mono-culture, the
I don't *have* it but I *use* it. (Score:2)
I have 2 windows machines and no Linux machine. But I *use* Linux; my web sites are hosted on linux because the virtualization is better and it's cheaper. My svn server is linux and so is the server that runs wikis, PM systems and the other things I need to have. Why, I couldn't get by without linux! Yet I don't actually have a linux machine and I thus don't add to the ranks of linux users, whereas I *do* add to the ranks of Windows users.
I guess what I'm saying is, it's very hard to evaluate the import
Yes, he is right (Score:2)
And weather predication is useless, because we can never be 100% sure of the results.
And Economics is useless, because there are so many parameters to measure constantly, and they are always changing that we can't actually be sure of anything at anytime.
etc....
I suggest we do it like the MPAA and RIAA (Score:3, Funny)
"Linux Users" vs "Uses of Linux" (Score:2, Interesting)
Know what, mr.G can help with this (Score:2, Insightful)
Not that hard (Score:2)
Printer (Score:2)
Numbers suck! (Score:2)
"Yeah. I'm angry at numbers!"
why not web logs (Score:2)
nmap (Score:3, Funny)
Sounds Like BS to me.... (Score:2, Insightful)
Two (Score:4, Funny)
Back to one... (Score:2)
2 + -1 = 1
World domination failed.
-matthew
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plz sign up for Linux re-education class k thx bye
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Re:Start counting here (Score:4, Funny)
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Re:Start counting here (Score:5, Funny)
I, for one, use GNU/Linux and only F/OSS
Where shall we mail your trophy?
Numbers are meaningless (Score:2, Funny)
Some people are using Lunix for servers. That's it. It has no acceptance as a desktop OS, due to it's inability to autodetect and autoconfig hardware, and it's failure to provide easy (read: non-CLI) software installs which don't require manually fixing the "always first time failed" install.
It's also pretty disgusting how Apache, Lunix's so-called "killer app", can't even install correct
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n=$(( $n + 1 ))
recently I discovered that bash supports this too:
let n=n+1
or even
let n++
Re:A good slashdot poll (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Start counting here (Score:4, Insightful)
That's why it's hard to count. Windows users are easy: it's almost all 1 to 1. I have 1 windows machine, so mark me down for 1 in the windows category as well. You can be even more specific and count windows licenses; this is misleading...My workplace has a great number of unused windows licenses...But it's a good number with documentation behind it, whereas linux can only count support contracts with big linux vendors.
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The problems with the guys that wrote the article are simply spreading FUD. Nothing more. Of course you can count and those counts are being done. As I stated there are approximately 100 million installs world-wide. Tha
Full Liberation is Not Pointless. (Score:3, Insightful)
Desktop liberation is important because it prevents sabotage in other seemingly unrelated areas like, power management and portable music players. As long as M$ has the lion's share of desktops, they can put pressure on vendors, equipment makers and even on line service providers like Google. Everyone else loses when M$ wins.
This power is severely degraded now, thanks to Vista and Apple. When you combine Apple's 10% share with the GNU/Linux 5%, you get numbers that have bottom line implications. That
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This is the point where you quit while you're ahead, and it's the difference between +5, Insighftul and -
Not really (Score:2)
XP: 1
Linux:0.402
Mac:0.179
Vista:0.089
W2000:0.069
And a few others
Feedburner seems to miss quite a lot, but unless it is really undercounting linux, it would look like slashdot readers prefer XP as a plurality.
--
Windows is less effi
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I'm usually running Windows XP when I browse slashdot. Of course, this is because I usually browse slashdot when I'm goofing off at work and have no choice in the matter of which operating system my work PC will run. =) And I'm sure I'm not the only one.
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On the other hand, the question "how many people got to choose the OS they are running right now w
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Example: Microsoft sends Vista to Walt Mossberg over at the WSJ. (BTW, on a smoking-fast system of his choice) He will at least look at it because Microsoft buys advertising. Let's say someone over at Vectorlinux http://www.vectorlinux.com/ [vectorlinux.com] attempted to spend some time doing PR.
1. Editors would not give them the time of day because they can't a
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