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Attempts to Count Linux Users Remain Pointless
Posted by
CmdrTaco
on Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:03 AM
from the can-i-count-all-the-racks-seperately dept.
from the can-i-count-all-the-racks-seperately dept.
An anonymous reader writes "A great deal of attention is paid to numbers, but rarely does one actually ask what these numbers mean. One problem that many people have been trying to tackle is gauging the extent of use of Free software, including Linux. Questionnaires are not a solution here and neither are statistics, which are usually derived from the wrong data. The following article looks at the various challenges at hand and concludes that the growth rate of Linux is likely to remain an enigma."
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words from microsoft: (Score:5, Funny)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Anyone who uses this socialist junk is anti-American, and you're a fool if you think Linux is a real, quality software proje
hmm. (Score:3, Insightful)
(1) a lot of foaming at the mouth rants and statistics from Linux evangelists
(2) some distie bashing thrown in for good measure
(3) the inevitable vista comments and hints about massive marketing campaigns
(4) maybe some mention of PCs shipped with Linux pre-installed
(5) if we are really lucky maybe the odd referenced fact
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2008 will be the year of the Linux Desktop, so it's all irrelevant now!
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Questionnaires are not a solution here and neither are statistics, which are usually derived from the wrong data.
Ah yes, damned statistics; always getting in the way when I'm trying to gather reliable... statistics. And don't get me started on asking questions, that's clearly the worst way to get answers to things I want to know.
Really now, what are they trying to
Re:hmm. (Score:5, Funny)
Also, did you know that the longest recorded frog jump was 33 feet 5.5 inches [exploratorium.edu]? Amazing!
Parent
Re:hmm. -- you forgot (Score:3, Funny)
Re:hmm. (Score:5, Interesting)
Then a friends company (not a small one mind you) went off to do a linux-on-the-desktop study as alot of their windows agreements were about to become eol so to speak. At first I thought this was a bargaining tool to get cheaper software, but I was surprised to find that not only was it about replacing the desktop but also the server side functionality. It turned out they'd started looking at linux desktops because they'd managed to gain some linux servers to replace most costly machines (some windows, but alot were aix or solaris) - interestingly, alot of the now-linux server hardware are sun x86'ers running centos. As a result they took on some linux types to administer them, and it grew - they replaced a few non-essential file servers. changed a few mail gateways to linux. Moved proxies to squid. As their CTO put it "i was suddenly surrounded by linux and didn't realise it until i looked at the balance sheets, all we are paying for is hardware and alot of the things we are using linux for are internally grown and maintained. I started to think we weren't paying for licenses were we should be". One of the things that did take him by supprise is that half his IT department by this time had switched to a linux desktop and used mail thru imap or some such (some were using windows still thru vmware player or from a terminal server running outlook). Apparently if you pxe boot off alot of the networks, you'll get a pxelinux menu that allows you to boot various things like dsl or install a customized ubuntu (though i didn't see that myself). I know they're also running some systems with RHEL too because they "feel good" to know they have support.
To sum it up, i was quite shocked. 12 months ago I was feeling "unix was coming to an end" and feeling quite disappointed by that, but I feel quite elated by what i've seen lately - Especially so in Australia where linux has had a really tough time of it.
Having said all that, i think the author wasn't just referring to linux users but also the users of FOSS replacements for commercial applications (like open office, gimp, etc). I can't say i've seen a tonne of that myself, but its not uncommon to see things like gaim, firefox, jedit, eclipse - smaller things really.
It will be very interesting to see what the next 12months brings us.
Parent
It depends on your definition. (Score:5, Insightful)
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Then throw all the NSLU users and goodness knows what other little device that used Linux.
Now for fun throw in everybody that uses Google
Everybody uses Linux.
We're all users (Score:2)
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That is very true. I think the first step in measuring something is defining
Re:It depends on your definition. (Score:4, Interesting)
A point that is not actually made in TFA. I was talking with my father-in-law the other day, and we were discussing my software-engineering job, and that I use Linux preferentially simply because it's so much more reliable and "commercial grade" despite it's being free.
He announces to me that "Well, that's all fine and dandy, but I'm never going to bother learning that...". So I pointed to the Dish DVR under his TV and the Linksys router next to his Windows PC, and indicated that he was already using it more than he was using Windows!
This is a point that TFA didn't cover at all. The desktop is losing its dominant position.
Parent
Firefox (Score:5, Funny)
1) Require a national ID number to download any Linux distro, and validation of ownership of this number through an in-person meeting with the local authorities.
2) Have the software "phone home" that it's actually being used, when it's used.
3) Close the source so that 2) can be facilitated.
4) Made the ID numbers and contact information in 1) publicly available so anyone can audit the official count of users.
There, done, you've got everyone counted. Wasn't that easy?
Re:Firefox (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Get the genuine advantage (Score:3, Funny)
2) Have the software "phone home" that it's actually being used, when it's used.
Yes! Every day Linux Genuine Advantage [microsoft.com] helps customers all over the world who are victims of software piracy get genuine. If you got your Linux for free, you should upgrade today to get the following exciting new features:
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QFT.
As a side note, I've always felt the precision vs accuracy thing was a bit odd. What good is one without the other? Being precise and innacurate is pointless because you -know- the number is probably wrong, but it's always the same wrong. Being imprecise and accurate is pointless because your numbers are right, but you don't know what they mean. (They're -right-, but right for what?
Not possible (Score:3, Interesting)
Plus are you talking about just Server/desktop? If you count the millions of embedded devices that run gnu/linux I'm sure it would be considered the worlds most popular OS. It's all in how you want to swing the numbers.
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eg, you can extrapolate that Linux adoption has doubled if ubuntu downloads have doubled, even if you don't have the full figures.
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Well, duh. (Score:5, Interesting)
It might not be entirely pointless to try, but I'm reasonably convinced of two things: I don't care (and don't need to) about the exact numbers, and it's growing.
I don't care largely because the software meets *my* needs. That's the most important thing to me. An assurance that it will continue to do so is also nice, and there are clearly a lot of people developing for it. I'm not worried on that front. People who have a big investment in *other people* using Linux (especially when said other people aren't developers) confuse me. (Well, except when they're trying to sell Linux software / services.)
It's growing. I can't tell you how much, but I can offer the anecdotal evidence that the responses I get to "I run Linux" have changed over the past few years. It's not always "What's that?" anymore. It's not uncommon to get questions about it in response -- people want to know how well it works, whether it runs the same software as Windows, etc. I just answer their questions and am polite and friendly about it.
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What kind of evangelism is that? You should browbeat them into submission and threaten them with eternal damnation in the pits of Redmond if they don't convert!
I have an idea (Score:2, Funny)
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couldn't you just (Score:5, Interesting)
Ask them if they use Linux of not
Extrapolate the results.
Seems to work when there counting all kinds of other things that don't have a direct method of counting them.
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
How would you do it? Call people up? Sorry, that excludes all the people who use only VoIP or cell phones, because you can't call them. So, you know that your survey is already limited to mouth-breathers who still use POTS and talk to survey people.
Am I going out on a limb to say that that class of people has markedly different charasteristics than those outside of it, especially on Linux?
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The gist of the article seems to be that no counting method is perfect and therefore gives you no useful information. In fact, an imperfect counting method can still give some information, and the information from independent methods can be combined. This is done all the time in science, for instance. Does the original author think that marine biologists get counts of fish
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How many people know they're using Linux on their phones? Do they know Linux runs a lot of DVRs? Do those numbers even count? The problem with counting Linux users is everyone is technically a Linux user. Do we then just count Linux desktop users? Is that number significant in any way?
Just a few honest questions here. You won't find much in the way of linux desktop OS users although their numbers are indeed growing. At what rate I have no idea as I believe that is hard to measure given.
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Ah, an Onion-esk headline (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, it's not so much that they are pointless - just that they are useless. There is a point to knowing how many Linux boxes are out there (demographic studies, confidence in support longevity as a function of install base, etc.) But most known techniques for counting remain useless.
To be honest, this might be just as well. Any technology that COULD count successfully all the Linux boxes out there would be a bit scary - many people probably don't WANT anyone to be able to know what they are running. (OK so nmap can probably figure out anyway...)
Large scale counts like this are a difficult proposition - the only things that approaches being successful in this respect are probably automobile registration systems, census systems, and the tax system - in other words, massive systems with compulsary reporting for every existing component member.
Now, of more interest might be to work with the BSA for a while (or someone else who has the authority to open random IT doors at random) and do an anonymous study of deployment percentages at random under guise of a random license check or soemthing. Probably (hopefully!) not legal but it would be a way to get statistically meaningful results if the sample was chosen well.
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Well there is a very old and very well-tested "technology" that could determine the number of Linux users, and all without invading privacy, or installing software on people's computers. It's called: "statistical surveys."
Yes, surveys are imperfect. They have error bars. However if the sample size is big enough, they give a rea
Seems to me (Score:2)
We can figure this out (Score:2, Funny)
the Ballmer index (Score:2, Funny)
For the Bogglers (Score:3, Insightful)
For those boggling over WHY this matters, try and keep in mind that Microsoft, Apple, et al provide these figures regularly. Whether or not they're valid is a source of debate, but some kind of numbers are out there. This is how we get to say things like 'Windows is 90% of the market', etc.
Perhaps we need a 'BeCounted' daemon that merely tracks the stats of those that would like to be counted? It would still be a fraction, but if that number were out there we'd at least have some kind of data point to discuss. Perhaps FSF or GNU or some other party would host the servers that collect the data? You could even make the thing multi-platform, reporting on specific apps, and providing other useful data and pitch it to Google and company. Not that they're not already tracking this in their own apps, but this would be OSS. You could have all sorts of opt-in/opt-out toggles for it and it would be transparent as to what it tracked. You could also have it gather from different places and homogenize the data after it was submitted. The possibilities abound.
Maybe there already is such a creature? If we supporters of Free-with-a-capital-F want to be relevant moving forward, a detailed head-count could certainly be a step in the right direction.
I suggest we do it like the MPAA and RIAA (Score:3, Funny)
nmap (Score:3, Funny)
Two (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Re:Start counting here (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Start counting here (Score:5, Funny)
I, for one, use GNU/Linux and only F/OSS
Where shall we mail your trophy?
Parent
Re: (Score:2, Funny)
Re:A good slashdot poll (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Start counting here (Score:4, Insightful)
That's why it's hard to count. Windows users are easy: it's almost all 1 to 1. I have 1 windows machine, so mark me down for 1 in the windows category as well. You can be even more specific and count windows licenses; this is misleading...My workplace has a great number of unused windows licenses...But it's a good number with documentation behind it, whereas linux can only count support contracts with big linux vendors.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
The problems with the guys that wrote the article are simply spreading FUD. Nothing more. Of course you can count and those counts are being done. As I stated there are approximately 100 million installs world-wide. Tha
Full Liberation is Not Pointless. (Score:3, Insightful)
Desktop liberation is important because it prevents sabotage in other seemingly unrelated areas like, power management and portable music players. As long as M$ has the lion's share of desktops, they can put pressure on vendors, equipment makers and even on line service providers like Google. Everyone else loses when M$ wins.
This power is severely degraded now, thanks to Vista and Apple. When you combine Apple's 10% share with the GNU/Linux 5%, you get numbers that have bottom line implications. That
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
This is the point where you quit while you're ahead, and it's the difference between +5, Insighftul and -
Not really (Score:2)
XP: 1
Linux:0.402
Mac:0.179
Vista:0.089
W2000:0.069
And a few others
Feedburner seems to miss quite a lot, but unless it is really undercounting linux, it would look like slashdot readers prefer XP as a plurality.
--
Windows is less effi
Re: (Score:3, Funny)