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Linux Business

IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream 283

Posted by CmdrTaco from the well-of-course-it-is dept.
robyannetta writes "Eweek has an interesting article quoting IDC analyst Al Gillen saying "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream." He made that observation because IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008."
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IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream More

IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream

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  • Oh well... (Score:4, Funny)

    by grub ( 11606 ) <slashdot@grub.net> on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:11PM (#11254714) Homepage Journal

    Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?

    • No way (Score:3, Funny)

      by paranode ( 671698 )
      All the cool antisocial elitist nerds will be using Hurd, man! Any time now...
      • Freedos?

        Seriously though... this is a totally bad story for /. as most of the peeps here are closet windows users or diehard linux/bsd users.

        IDC says Linux is legit? That's interesting as it's been my OS of choice for the last couple of years. It's the only thing I'll run on my amd64 too. So it's really just preaching to the choir at this point.

        Tom

    • Re:Oh well... (Score:5, Funny)

      by grassy_knoll ( 412409 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:46PM (#11255116) Homepage
      Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?

      Well, if it's unpopular causes you're after, I understand the Democratic Party is always looking for volunteers.

      [badum-ching]

      • Or (Score:4, Interesting)

        by paranode ( 671698 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:54PM (#11255223)
        Go one step further and become a Libertarian or Green. The more niche categories you put yourself into the less your feelings can be hurt by generalizations!

        Viruses? Hah, that's why I run Linux!!
        Republicans are stupid? So are Democrats? Hah! I'm a Libertarian!
        Popular music is lame? Hah! That's why I only listen to my next door neighbor's garage band who NOBODY knows!

    • Bring back BeOS is the way to go man. That platform is deader than dead.
  • Excuse me, wtf? Shouldnt it be based on usage? It's FREE.
  • until Netcraft confirms it.

  • 2008? (Score:5, Funny)

    by grasshoppa ( 657393 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:12PM (#11254733) Homepage
    So...doesn't that mean it'll be mainstream in 2008?

    Assuming the prediction is right.

    Hell. I predict I will be a stud by 2008, because I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY.

  • ummmm (Score:2, Funny)

    by codeconfused ( 834856 )
    Tell me something I don't klnow

  • well.. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by soccerisgod ( 585710 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:13PM (#11254747)
    Thank you captain obvious. I'm sure nobody would have figured that out on their own. Sometimes I really wonder why people keep paying analysts at all. All they appear to do is churn out totally baseless and unrealistic estimates and statistics or state the obvious.

    • Re:well.. (Score:3, Funny)

      by DrSkwid ( 118965 )
      thanks mr obvious for pointing that out

    • Analysts read information sources (news papers? what secret news source do analysts use?) and produce, well, analyses.
      My parents, for instance, are working hard in the IT industry. In fact, they work so hard, on existing (NT) systems, that they wouldn't know Linux is growing so fast if they didn't have some concise business newsletter to tell them so.

      How would an old-running company, whose core business is not IT, know it's using an out-dated system, and not the 'industry standard'?
      The more companies repea

  • So?!? (Score:4, Funny)

    by natron 2.0 ( 615149 ) <`moc.liamg' `ta' `97sretepdn'> on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:14PM (#11254749) Homepage Journal
    So does this mean linux is not cool any more?

    • Re:So?!? (Score:3, Funny)

      by Surt ( 22457 )
      Yep, I'm afraid all those nerds slaving away in their parent's basements are no longer cool.
    • It won't be mainstream till 2008, so that means it will really start to be popular in late 2007. So you have 2.5 years to jump on the BSD/AthenaOS/ReactOS/OS-9/........ bandwagons. You even have time to start your own. Good Luck!

      BTW I wonder what the status of BeOS. That might be fun.

  • Too Soon (Score:3, Interesting)

    by clinko ( 232501 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:17PM (#11254792) Journal
    This is way too soon to say it's mainstream.

    Hell, people don't even think netscape/mozilla/firefox is mainstream and it have 20% or more of the market.

  • ... right above the article, declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective [microsoft.com] than Linux.

    These same ironic banners are on Slashdot all the time. It's hilarious.

  • How is it an "observation" that Linux is mainstream when "research has predicted" that revenue will increase a lot? Not that Linux will be at some point, or is getting there, but that it IS mainsteam.

    To me it's not really an observation, just a...what's the word... oh yeah, prediction.

    Maybe I just don't get it.

  • Sellouts. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Brandon One ( 760352 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:19PM (#11254817)
    I used to see Linux play in basements and living rooms. Now they have gone mainstream. They signed that $35 billion record deal. Damn sellouts.

  • On The Server Side Maybe (Score:4, Insightful)

    by thasmudyan ( 460603 ) <thasmudyan@openfu. c o m> on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:24PM (#11254874)
    From personal observations of customers and business people I can attest that, yes, Linux (and OSS in general) is widely known and most people take it seriously.

    However, I guess many slashdotters (myself included) are already thinking about desktop. And that's still a long way to go. Even Firefox has still a long way ahead of itself, and I consider it to be one of the most well-known OSS applications out there. It will be a long time until non-geek people start using OSS seriously on the desktop.

    Then again, I live in Germany, the clocks work differently here - maybe it's different elsewhere?
    • Here in the US, it's the same story. A lot of people have heard of Firefox, but most people I know are sticking with IE for a variety of reasons such as sloth and a general uncomfortableness about installing new software on their computer.

      (Unless it it involves a purple gorilla or something like that. I _really_ don't understand this, but I have a feeling that hidden somewhere in the amazing pervasiveness of spyware - despite all the privacy and spam memes floating around the Net - is the secret to OSS o

  • do the proclamation in 2008 then (Score:3, Insightful)

    by js3 ( 319268 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:27PM (#11254907)
    someone shoud tell these guys mainstream is not how much money you make...
  • See Linux on the Desktop at work and worth it [com.com]:
    Both above vendors require per seat licensing, and can lock the enterprise in at the IT management level. But both also offer many of the same advantages of Linux on the desktop for a fraction of the effort and inside knowledge required.
    .

  • Chapelle Show (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:28PM (#11254922)
    It was mainstream when it made it on the Chapelle Show:

    "If they give you a Windows disk, tell them we only run Mac. If they give you a Mac disk, tell them we only run windows. IF they give you both, tell them we use linux. And if they give you all three, tell them the computers are down."

    • Re:Chapelle Show (Score:2, Insightful)

      by dukeisgod ( 739214 )
      Hilarious sketch, but of course a real geek would have no problem reading a windows disk with mac or linux, a linux disk on mac, etc. Unless you just are feeling lazy. And a good geek could probably come up with a more BOFHish excuse anyhow.

  • Fringe benefits (Score:4, Funny)

    by orthogonal ( 588627 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:30PM (#11254944) Journal
    IDC analyst Al Gillen [said] "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream."

    Gillen went on to chortle, "But Linux geeks are not mainstream, and while they will continue to belong to the fringe, then will never ever be players with the laaadies!

    On hearing this, the assembled contingent of bearded, pasty, pot-bellied Linux geeks hung their heads in shame, silently acknowledging the truth of Gillen's words, while wishing they could, like the 7th level Magic-Users they aspired to be, quietly teleport back to their mother's basements and their collections of what they pretentiously refer to as "graphic novels".

    I keed!, I keed! Truly I love you all! /Triumph the Insult Comic Dog
  • Do they just redo these estimates and adjust for inflation every year? These were the guys who said online pet product sales would be a $2 billion market by 2002.

  • IDC gets money from Microsoft, and.... (Score:3, Informative)

    by hansreiser ( 6963 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:35PM (#11254985) Homepage
    they have a long history of predicting that Linux growth will be lower than what one would reasonably expect given the previous quarters at various free software companies. Remember back when Linux was doubling in a year or less, and they were predicting 27% growth?

    They get a lot of press, and by pretending to be extolling Linux, and aided by naive free software advocates who go around giving publicity to their numbers, they actually succeed in making it look a lot smaller than it is.

    Microsoft is notorious for spending money on dishonest pr flacks.

    I wish there were real numbers on Linux usage growth over the last year. Surely it isn't doubling anymore, but I bet it is still gaining market share.

    Hans
    www.namesys.com

  • So... (Score:2, Insightful)

    by Tufriast ( 824996 )
    Does this mean we'll finally start seeing direct ports of the most popular gaming titles? Leisure Suit Larry for teh win.
  • If the Microsoft monopoly were really broken up by forcing software companies to port their code/drivers to another OS or standard for working on all operating systems then I would think Linux would get a big boost but so would other operating systems. Before eveyone jumps on me , think about this, Microsoft owns the monopoly but software(and Hardware) companies are co-conspirators. They don't give any other operating system a chance. The DOJ(dep. of justice) didn't do the job, period ! The verdict was a jo

  • odd timing (Score:5, Insightful)

    by jaxon6 ( 104115 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:41PM (#11255056)
    I just finished an email with a co-worker from three jobs ago, when I was a consultant doing systems and network stuff for small-medium companies in Mass., RI and Conn. Back then I was all-linux, but I worked on IBMs AS/400s and NT/2k, and rarely got any Unix work on the job. I eventually left because my boss wasn't pushing linux hard enough for my liking.
    Anyways, I just finished an email in which my co-worker proclaimed this year to be the year of linux. Coming from him, I am forced to take a step back from my daily linux work-life and look at it from his perspective.
    To those who don't find MS to be an abomination of all that is good and holy, and simply use what technology is best for the times, this year is the equivalent 96(or 97) for NT. This was a year or so before I got into the business(high school and all), but from what I make of the timeline, NT was _IT_ back then. It was a server, it was somewhat stable(compared to Windows), it was user-friendly(compared to Unix/AS400), it was fully 32-bit. It ran on Alphas for christ's sake.
    What high hopes it held.
    Now, though, I am worried about what comes next. It took 8 years for what I knew to be the next big thing to become the next big thing. Am I now so deep into linux that I won't be able to see what's set to surpass it until it's here? I'm worried I will turn into those 'NT guys' from 96 or so who saw linux as a handicapped os and summarily dismissed it. Of course, it didn't even support 2-gigabyte files back then, so maybe they had a point.
    Time will have to tell. I saw one computing mini-revolution coming years ahead of the mainstream; I hope to be able to see the next also.

  • I find it slightly ironic... (Score:3, Funny)

    by Illissius ( 694708 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:50PM (#11255167)
    ...that this comes before the first '2005 is the year of Linux on the desktop!!111' prediction. They've been predicting it every single year, and the year when it is declared to be true (whether or not it is), they are beaten to the punch ;).

  • And how does he define "mainstream"? (Score:4, Insightful)

    by WidescreenFreak ( 830043 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @01:54PM (#11255217) Homepage Journal
    This really bothers me. To me, "mainstream" means something that the majority of people not only can enjoy but also want to enjoy of their own volition - acceptance by and demand from the general populous. The dictionary defines "mainstream" as Representing the prevalent attitudes, values, and practices of a society or group.In that regard, how is "mainstream" possibly close to describing Linux?

    He seems to be talking exclusively about "mainstream" in the IT world. I don't see how even in 2008 Linux will be "mainstream" in the home desktop world. Shouldn't the term "mainstream" be applied across the board before it's used in such a broad fashion?

    The prevalent attitudes towards computers, especially on the desktop, is that anything other than Windows != effective or easy to use. Put a number of Linux computers on sale at Best Buy (or your country's equivalent) with all things being equal with respect to hardware and price and everything necessary to run Windows on the Linux system, and see how they fare compared to Windows system. The general populous will purchase Windows in droves while those of us in the know (and we ARE a minority, folks) might purchase the Linux system.

    If some PC manufacturer will actually put out a system for sale on retail stores that sells comparable numbers to Windows PCs, then I'll be more accepting of the "mainstream" moniker. (Not that anybody's individual acceptance really means anything...)

    I also question why he perceives the migration to Linux in the IT world to be "mainstream". Look at the two primary alternatives:

    * Windows - bloated, slow, expensive TCO, closed, not well scaleable

    * Sun - aewsome operating system, unbelievable scaling capabilities, unbearably arrogant and short-sighted CEO, f**king EXPENSIVE hardware

    Now comes Linux - can use existing hardware, scales fairly well, free, tons of software for free, tech support is available at a reasonable price... Hmmmm!

    I'd like to see a study done on how "mainstream" Linux really is and why. Was it accepted in IT because of its strengths or was it accepted in IT because of the excessive weaknesses of its competitors? They're not the same, but I think that the reasons are important. YMMV.

  • We need more fluff like this (Score:4, Interesting)

    by erroneus ( 253617 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @02:03PM (#11255350) Homepage
    It's a fluff piece but it has been sorely needed for a while.

    It has long been said that before Linux will be the order of the day, CEOs and their underlings need to read about Linux more and more before they'll start to ask "what is this thing and why aren't we running it?" It had brief exposure on CNN and some other sources, but it still needs more lip service.

    It has long been felt "no one has ever been fired for going with Microsoft..." and that might change too when reliability is compared. I was tickled when I first noticed the RedHat8 server we use at my site has an uptime of greater than a year. No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot and we've got a damned nice UPS in place. It serves its functions and does it nicely. I just can't get that from a Microsoft server...especially when every security update requires a reboot... especially when end of life means no more security updates and forces an upgrade. Most people have been droned into thinking that's just 'normal' but I just can't see it that way.

    The more Fluff we get, the more the uneducated starts asking about it and making it happen.

    I like where I work though... we're already on a roadmap that dumps Microsoft entirely... my condolences to those who are still stuck in MS-land.

    • Re:We need more fluff like this (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Feztaa ( 633745 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @02:34PM (#11255774) Homepage
      No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot

      Hate to break this to you, but if you've updated your kernel and haven't rebooted, you're still running the old kernel. Use 'uname -a' to check for yourself. Might want to reboot that server, there have been some security updates for the kernel that you've installed but aren't actually running.
  • Having a $35B market doesn't mean that something is mainstream then, beforehand, or whatever. On the other hand, research which would lead an IDC analyst to think that Linux will be a $35B market in 3 years also implies that it is mainstream now. IDC is looking at stuff like long-term corporate purchasing plans. This tells them that a lot of money is likely to be spent on Linux in 2008, and that a lot of long-term plans today include Linux as a future direction.
  • From the article:
    What I do see happening is that open-source desktop applications are going to be appearing on practically every Windows desktop in the next three years.

    What _I_ want to see happening is cross-platform RAD tools appearing on practically every developer's Windows and Linux desktops in the next year. _THEN_ we'll see open-source desktop apps appearing on practically every Windows and Linux desktop in the next three to five years.

    O RAD suit developer, where art thou?

  • what are the numbers for Windows? (Score:3, Interesting)

    by westlake ( 615356 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @02:13PM (#11255500)
    IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008.

    The meaning isn't clear. Is server hardware being intertwined with sales of software and services? Is this an estimate of annual revenues in 2008 or simply an estimate of the total for 1998-2008? What are the numbers for Windows?

  • Re: (Score:2, Funny)

    by account_deleted ( 4530225 )
    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  • The "Grandma" Test.. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by naelurec ( 552384 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @02:31PM (#11255733) Homepage
    I find it intesting how everyone is so quick to dismiss Linux in the grandma test.

    Here is my reality:

    Grandma is 2500 miles away. What OS do I want to give her? Wells its definitely not Windows. She wants to get on the Internet and lets face it, my grandma is not very tech savvy and would probably load up that machine with so much spyware and viruses it would crumble.

    My thoughts? Knoppix. Build a custom knoppix that includes browser, email, a few games, etc and presto she is set. Every boot is clean. It meets her computing needs without the worry of viruses/spyware/etc.. every few months, I could create a new Knoppix CD and send it to her.. boot off the new CD, and she has the latest software.

    I could be a little bit creative, have her settings/documents stored on the hard drive and have Knoppix on boot run a script that would determine the last backup and prompt her to pop in a CD-RW to keep a backup of her data.

    Since she is booting off the CD, I can boot my copy of the CD to know exactly what she is looking at on-screen if she has questions.

    I dunno.. it seems like the right choice to me. Perhaps it could even go a step further where the hard drive is partitioned and when the Knoppix CD is booted up, it would prompt if she wants to update her computer (auto-install to hard drive) or boot from the CD. Keep the docs/settings on their own partition so it doesn't get removed.

    I know grandma can pop in a CD and turn on the computer. Seems like this would pass the test.
    • That answer is fine for YOUR grandmother, who has someone with the necassery expertise to build such a disc for her.

      Now how does that help all the others grandmas out there that don't have such a grandchild?

  • This article is a dupe (Score:3, Informative)

    by learn fast ( 824724 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @02:49PM (#11255989)
    Yup, We've seen this before. [slashdot.org] It's not the same article exactly, but both had obviously been haplessly scraped out of the same press release. Same numbers, same quotes. Nothing to see here...

  • My family linux problem (Score:3, Interesting)

    by dougnaka ( 631080 ) * on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @03:12PM (#11256287) Homepage Journal
    I have told my family for years they should switch to Linux cuz they wouldn't have *insert problem they're calling me for support about* anymore. In the last 6 months they've started saying, yeah great! Switch me to Linux.. and suddenly I'm thinking.. hmmm do I really want to be on the line for more support when my X application doesn't run, or the software I bought from Coscto won't install!?

    So, the tables have turned for me, and now I'm *not* telling them to switch to linux, becuase THEY WOULD!

  • Things that will accelerate the transition (Score:3, Interesting)

    by HangingChad ( 677530 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @04:20PM (#11257082) Homepage
    MSFT does plenty to shoot themselves in the foot. Not only are they getting eaten up on security issues, but there are a number of issues that could be the last straw for a lot of people. If they ever wake up and start reading what's actually in the EULA [cybersource.com.au] they're going to start thinking about alternatives more seriously.

    The next "last straw" for some people may be this prediction from Microsoft-Watch:

    Microsoft's biggest announcement of the year won't be Yukon (SQL Server 2005) or Whidbey (Visual Studio 2005). Instead, it will be an as-yet-unannounced anti-virus/anti-spyware subscription service for which Microsoft will charge.
    Source: http://tinyurl.com/3sht4

    More likely MSFT will quietly offer this to their bigger customers to keep them from switching to OSS while the great sea of consumer users will have to pay. Or maybe they'll be smart and give it away, but that's a little like hoping dubya will really be a uniter and not a divider.

    I think IDC's estimates are conservative. Now that the ball is rolling down hill it will only continue to accelerate. Aided by MSFT's almost uncanny ability to treat their customers like criminals.

  • No killer apps (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Jarlsberg ( 643324 ) on Tuesday January 04, 2005 @04:42PM (#11257377) Journal
    One of many problems facing Linux is that it really doesn't have any killer apps. All the good apps (or the high profiled one anyway, like Firefox, Gimp, Open Office et al) are released on the Windows platform as well, and that's the one getting promoted. Nobody will switch to using a Linux distro because of Firefox, since it's already available on the Windows platform.

    OTOH, Windows have several killer apps, like Photoshop & other Adobe apps, Macromedias apps, Microsoft apps (and my own personal favourite, Directory Opus) etc. Sure, you can run some of them through Wine, but that's not something a lot of people will want to do.

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