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IDC Proclaims Linux Is Now Mainstream
Posted by
CmdrTaco
on Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:08 PM
from the well-of-course-it-is dept.
from the well-of-course-it-is dept.
robyannetta writes "Eweek has an
interesting article
quoting IDC analyst Al Gillen saying "Linux is no longer a fringe player. Linux is now mainstream." He made that observation because IDC's research predicts that Linux's overall revenue for desktops, servers and packaged software running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008."
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Oh well... (Score:4, Funny)
Now that Linux is mainstream I'll have to turn my back on it and find another cause to fight for. Has Netcraft confirmed the BSD rumours?
No way (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Oh well... (Score:5, Funny)
Well, if it's unpopular causes you're after, I understand the Democratic Party is always looking for volunteers.
[badum-ching]
Parent
Or (Score:4, Interesting)
Viruses? Hah, that's why I run Linux!!
Republicans are stupid? So are Democrats? Hah! I'm a Libertarian!
Popular music is lame? Hah! That's why I only listen to my next door neighbor's garage band who NOBODY knows!
Parent
2008? (Score:5, Funny)
Assuming the prediction is right.
Hell. I predict I will be a stud by 2008, because I predict I will be having sex CONSTANTLY.
Re:2008? (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah. In 2008, zero will still remain a constant.
Parent
well.. (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:well.. (Score:3, Funny)
So?!? (Score:4, Funny)
Re:So?!? (Score:3, Funny)
Too Soon (Score:3, Interesting)
Hell, people don't even think netscape/mozilla/firefox is mainstream and it have 20% or more of the market.
Re:Too Soon (Score:4, Informative)
Parent
Re:Too Soon (Score:3)
And of course, the always ironic banner add... (Score:5, Funny)
... right above the article, declaring how Windows is cheaprer, less error prone, and more cost effective [microsoft.com] than Linux.
These same ironic banners are on Slashdot all the time. It's hilarious.
competitors (Score:3, Funny)
Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add... (Score:3, Funny)
Those articles never take in to consideration how much money it takes to train Linux users to use Windows or how many hair-pulling hours it takes for people to convert their OpenOffice Calc macros to Excel.
Re:And of course, the always ironic banner add... (Score:3, Insightful)
Sellouts. (Score:5, Funny)
On The Server Side Maybe (Score:4, Insightful)
However, I guess many slashdotters (myself included) are already thinking about desktop. And that's still a long way to go. Even Firefox has still a long way ahead of itself, and I consider it to be one of the most well-known OSS applications out there. It will be a long time until non-geek people start using OSS seriously on the desktop.
Then again, I live in Germany, the clocks work differently here - maybe it's different elsewhere?
do the proclamation in 2008 then (Score:3, Insightful)
Chapelle Show (Score:5, Funny)
"If they give you a Windows disk, tell them we only run Mac. If they give you a Mac disk, tell them we only run windows. IF they give you both, tell them we use linux. And if they give you all three, tell them the computers are down."
Fringe benefits (Score:4, Funny)
Gillen went on to chortle, "But Linux geeks are not mainstream, and while they will continue to belong to the fringe, then will never ever be players with the laaadies!
On hearing this, the assembled contingent of bearded, pasty, pot-bellied Linux geeks hung their heads in shame, silently acknowledging the truth of Gillen's words, while wishing they could, like the 7th level Magic-Users they aspired to be, quietly teleport back to their mother's basements and their collections of what they pretentiously refer to as "graphic novels".
I keed!, I keed! Truly I love you all!
IDC gets money from Microsoft, and.... (Score:3, Informative)
They get a lot of press, and by pretending to be extolling Linux, and aided by naive free software advocates who go around giving publicity to their numbers, they actually succeed in making it look a lot smaller than it is.
Microsoft is notorious for spending money on dishonest pr flacks.
I wish there were real numbers on Linux usage growth over the last year. Surely it isn't doubling anymore, but I bet it is still gaining market share.
Hans
www.namesys.com
odd timing (Score:5, Insightful)
Anyways, I just finished an email in which my co-worker proclaimed this year to be the year of linux. Coming from him, I am forced to take a step back from my daily linux work-life and look at it from his perspective.
To those who don't find MS to be an abomination of all that is good and holy, and simply use what technology is best for the times, this year is the equivalent 96(or 97) for NT. This was a year or so before I got into the business(high school and all), but from what I make of the timeline, NT was _IT_ back then. It was a server, it was somewhat stable(compared to Windows), it was user-friendly(compared to Unix/AS400), it was fully 32-bit. It ran on Alphas for christ's sake.
What high hopes it held.
Now, though, I am worried about what comes next. It took 8 years for what I knew to be the next big thing to become the next big thing. Am I now so deep into linux that I won't be able to see what's set to surpass it until it's here? I'm worried I will turn into those 'NT guys' from 96 or so who saw linux as a handicapped os and summarily dismissed it. Of course, it didn't even support 2-gigabyte files back then, so maybe they had a point.
Time will have to tell. I saw one computing mini-revolution coming years ahead of the mainstream; I hope to be able to see the next also.
I find it slightly ironic... (Score:3, Funny)
And how does he define "mainstream"? (Score:4, Insightful)
He seems to be talking exclusively about "mainstream" in the IT world. I don't see how even in 2008 Linux will be "mainstream" in the home desktop world. Shouldn't the term "mainstream" be applied across the board before it's used in such a broad fashion?
The prevalent attitudes towards computers, especially on the desktop, is that anything other than Windows != effective or easy to use. Put a number of Linux computers on sale at Best Buy (or your country's equivalent) with all things being equal with respect to hardware and price and everything necessary to run Windows on the Linux system, and see how they fare compared to Windows system. The general populous will purchase Windows in droves while those of us in the know (and we ARE a minority, folks) might purchase the Linux system.
If some PC manufacturer will actually put out a system for sale on retail stores that sells comparable numbers to Windows PCs, then I'll be more accepting of the "mainstream" moniker. (Not that anybody's individual acceptance really means anything...)
I also question why he perceives the migration to Linux in the IT world to be "mainstream". Look at the two primary alternatives:
* Windows - bloated, slow, expensive TCO, closed, not well scaleable
* Sun - aewsome operating system, unbelievable scaling capabilities, unbearably arrogant and short-sighted CEO, f**king EXPENSIVE hardware
Now comes Linux - can use existing hardware, scales fairly well, free, tons of software for free, tech support is available at a reasonable price... Hmmmm!
I'd like to see a study done on how "mainstream" Linux really is and why. Was it accepted in IT because of its strengths or was it accepted in IT because of the excessive weaknesses of its competitors? They're not the same, but I think that the reasons are important. YMMV.
We need more fluff like this (Score:4, Interesting)
It has long been said that before Linux will be the order of the day, CEOs and their underlings need to read about Linux more and more before they'll start to ask "what is this thing and why aren't we running it?" It had brief exposure on CNN and some other sources, but it still needs more lip service.
It has long been felt "no one has ever been fired for going with Microsoft..." and that might change too when reliability is compared. I was tickled when I first noticed the RedHat8 server we use at my site has an uptime of greater than a year. No kernel updates or anything else has required a reboot and we've got a damned nice UPS in place. It serves its functions and does it nicely. I just can't get that from a Microsoft server...especially when every security update requires a reboot... especially when end of life means no more security updates and forces an upgrade. Most people have been droned into thinking that's just 'normal' but I just can't see it that way.
The more Fluff we get, the more the uneducated starts asking about it and making it happen.
I like where I work though... we're already on a roadmap that dumps Microsoft entirely... my condolences to those who are still stuck in MS-land.
Re:We need more fluff like this (Score:4, Insightful)
Hate to break this to you, but if you've updated your kernel and haven't rebooted, you're still running the old kernel. Use 'uname -a' to check for yourself. Might want to reboot that server, there have been some security updates for the kernel that you've installed but aren't actually running.
Parent
what are the numbers for Windows? (Score:3, Interesting)
The meaning isn't clear. Is server hardware being intertwined with sales of software and services? Is this an estimate of annual revenues in 2008 or simply an estimate of the total for 1998-2008? What are the numbers for Windows?
The "Grandma" Test.. (Score:3, Insightful)
Here is my reality:
Grandma is 2500 miles away. What OS do I want to give her? Wells its definitely not Windows. She wants to get on the Internet and lets face it, my grandma is not very tech savvy and would probably load up that machine with so much spyware and viruses it would crumble.
My thoughts? Knoppix. Build a custom knoppix that includes browser, email, a few games, etc and presto she is set. Every boot is clean. It meets her computing needs without the worry of viruses/spyware/etc.. every few months, I could create a new Knoppix CD and send it to her.. boot off the new CD, and she has the latest software.
I could be a little bit creative, have her settings/documents stored on the hard drive and have Knoppix on boot run a script that would determine the last backup and prompt her to pop in a CD-RW to keep a backup of her data.
Since she is booting off the CD, I can boot my copy of the CD to know exactly what she is looking at on-screen if she has questions.
I dunno.. it seems like the right choice to me. Perhaps it could even go a step further where the hard drive is partitioned and when the Knoppix CD is booted up, it would prompt if she wants to update her computer (auto-install to hard drive) or boot from the CD. Keep the docs/settings on their own partition so it doesn't get removed.
I know grandma can pop in a CD and turn on the computer. Seems like this would pass the test.
This article is a dupe (Score:3, Informative)
My family linux problem (Score:3, Interesting)
So, the tables have turned for me, and now I'm *not* telling them to switch to linux, becuase THEY WOULD!
Things that will accelerate the transition (Score:3, Interesting)
The next "last straw" for some people may be this prediction from Microsoft-Watch:
Microsoft's biggest announcement of the year won't be Yukon (SQL Server 2005) or Whidbey (Visual Studio 2005). Instead, it will be an as-yet-unannounced anti-virus/anti-spyware subscription service for which Microsoft will charge.
Source: http://tinyurl.com/3sht4
More likely MSFT will quietly offer this to their bigger customers to keep them from switching to OSS while the great sea of consumer users will have to pay. Or maybe they'll be smart and give it away, but that's a little like hoping dubya will really be a uniter and not a divider.
I think IDC's estimates are conservative. Now that the ball is rolling down hill it will only continue to accelerate. Aided by MSFT's almost uncanny ability to treat their customers like criminals.
No killer apps (Score:3, Insightful)
OTOH, Windows have several killer apps, like Photoshop & other Adobe apps, Macromedias apps, Microsoft apps (and my own personal favourite, Directory Opus) etc. Sure, you can run some of them through Wine, but that's not something a lot of people will want to do.
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Insightful)
Grandma can't figure out how to print?
Installing printers in Linux is pretty simple. Configuring our main workgroup printer was as simple as giving the machine name on the network and saying it's an HP whatever.
Re:Won't be (Score:5, Insightful)
The grandma test largely fails since not all grandmas are equal (my grandma and grandpa taught me how to program FORTRAN when I was 8!) and since not all Linux boxes are equal (compare Lyrcoris to Debian).
Parent
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Insightful)
I grew up using Dos/Win3.1/95..etc, and now, NT in my business. I'm extremely comfortable coding/managing NT systems, because it is what I've used for the longest period of time (last few years of Linux).
I can only imagine the different perspective I would have had, using Linux in High school and College only, and then being respons
Strict (Score:5, Insightful)
If that's your definition of mainstream then I don't think even Windows is ready.
Parent
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Informative)
Right, just like windows.
You seem to live in a magical land where pixies frolic and windows doesn't have to be reinstalled every six months like fucking clockwork.
Hrm. I installed Fedora on my system (no harder than installing windows), launched OO Writer (just like launching Word, except it was included in the O
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Insightful)
Your grandmother may not be able to figure out how to con
Re:Won't be (Score:5, Insightful)
Everyone always talks about how Linux needs a unified, simple interface, which is really just code for saying it needs a Windows-like (or Mac-like, depending on the speaker) interface. While I agree that most things in Linux need interface work, I don't think all interfaces need to look exactly the same to be effective. In fact, trying to shoehorn an application into an interface that doesn't really fit it can cause actually reduce ease of use.
It's simple to code interfaces in Windows, because everyone just uses the same widgets to make their interfaces. The result is a homogenous, bland experience, where everything looks exactly the same. In this environment, nothing is super simple to use, but everything is at least equally difficult to figure out.
As for things like printing, Windows is easy to use if you are using one of a couple of popular scenarios, but once you break out of those, it can be nearly impossible to get things to work right. Some of this is because the interface for setting up non-traditional printer setups is obtuse, but most of it is because the help documentation on the topic is absolutely worthless. Microsoft Help is the most astounding collection of utterly worthless "troubleshooting tips" I have ever seen. I have never once had a problem that that thing came anywhere near helping me solve.
Interface work needs to be done. We do not need a single unified simple interface, we need several continually evolving interfaces, which will over time result in every application having the easiest and most intuitive interface for whatever it does.
Parent
Re:Won't be (Score:3, Insightful)
Personally I'd rather a bland homogenous interface than something completely different for every single application. In case you hadn't noticed products that have attempted to make their UI "more interesting" have often come up with something worse.
In 1995 I suffered with UNIX applications that have differen
Re:Won't be (Score:5, Interesting)
OK, so I set it all up for her (the way a vendor would pre-install Windoze) but once set up it runs smoothly and stays configured the way it was when set up. I simplified everything for her as she is not a power-user, removed lots of menu options and extraneous buttons and it's now so much easier for her to find her way around and actually do stuff than it was with Windows.
And that's on a hacked-together PII-300 running Gentoo, if she'd bought a pre-installed state-of-the-art Linux box it would be even smoother.
She has gone from calling me twice a day for tech support to once a fortnight since the switch from Windoze to Linux. I can fix any problem that does occur remotely. So now instead of talking exclusively about Blue Screens of Death, anti-virus software and automated updates we talk about me not providing any grandchildren.
Parent
Re:uh (Score:4, Funny)
Best part about it was that after about a day he decided that he didn't want me to put Windows back on it, and he has been using Linux for about 3 months just fine.
He can even use his wireless card which took more than an hour to install in MS. He just plugged it into the pcmcia slot and it beeped at him with Linux.
Parent
Re:uh (Score:3, Funny)
Enjoy,
Re:Won't be (Score:4, Insightful)
Exactly!
I wouldn't dream of turning over a Windows PC to my 75 year old parents. Hell, my dad calls me to help talk him through the TV/VCR and recently DVD useage issues.
However, I've been thinking of getting them a notebook PC and installing Xandros [xandros.com] Linux so they can get email, surf "the interweb", and download digital pictures from the camera. Xandros is easier than any version of Windows I've used, and I've suffered since Windows 3.1. Printers? Xandros knows my Lexmark Z52 inkjet and my big mutha Lexmark Optra T614 network laser printer. The drivers are already there, and installation couldn't be easier. No Plug-N-Pray (TM), no installation CD needed, and no need to reboot for changes to take effect.
I've been running Xandros exclusively for over two years for my engineering business. It runs 24/7 and I use lots of complex applications including mechanical CAD, electrical CAD & PCB layout, accounting, programming, etc. I'd NEVER go back to being a Windows luser and I'd certainly never subject my parents to the insane hassles of Outlook worm de jour and the weekly security exploits in Windows and IE.
There are other easy to use distros as well, and there is the Mac, so there is plenty of choice. If you want a computer, there is no need to play monopoly.
It's counter intuitive, but power users have a harder time migrating from Windows because of that one obscure application they just have to have. The average PC user who wants hassle-free internet, email, and office applications is best served by Linux, Firefox/Mozilla, OpenOffice, etc.
Parent
Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue (Score:4, Informative)
Parent
Re:free software's mainstreamness based on revenue (Score:3, Funny)
Re:ummmm (Score:4, Funny)
Parent